Match Analysis: Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Q2 Stadium, Austin, TX
Game Overview
Austin FC hosts San Jose Earthquakes in an MLS regular season clash with playoff implications in the Western Conference. Both teams have middling form, but Austin FC is slightly favored at home with a need to halt a recent winless streak, while San Jose aims to maintain momentum and their current edge in the standings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Austin FC has a -5 goal differential with 24 goals scored and 29 conceded, showing defensive vulnerabilities but decent shot-stopping (74.3% SV). They have 8 shutouts but have failed to win their last three league matches. San Jose Earthquakes possess a similarly mediocre record (8-8-11) but have recent confidence from a victory over Houston and sit just above Austin via goal difference.
- Recent meetings have often ended in draws, suggesting a tight matchup. Both teams have struggled to decisively assert dominance, and previous encounters have usually produced low to moderate scoring affairs.
- No major injuries reported that would decisively impact the starting lineups for either side. Expected goalkeepers Brad Stuver (Austin) and Daniel (San Jose) are set to start, per latest reports.
- The match is at Austin FC's home ground, Q2 Stadium, giving them a slight advantage. Weather and travel fatigue appear minimal concerns. Both teams are under pressure with playoff qualification stakes.
- San Jose holds a slight edge in motivation chasing playoff placement, sitting just above Austin by points and goal difference. Austin needs to reverse recent poor form to stay competitive for postseason spots.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | 105 (Austin FC), 230 (San Jose Earthquakes), 270 (Draw) | Austin FC | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | -0.5 101 (Austin FC), +50 -133 (San Jose Earthquakes) | Austin FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Over/under | Over 3.5 130, Under 3.5 -175 | Over 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Austin FC 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.5 27% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Austin FC to win on the moneyline, covering the spread, and a moderately high scoring game going over 3.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 3-2