Match Analysis: Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-31
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Q2 Stadium, Austin, USA
Game Overview
The upcoming MLS match between Austin FC and San Jose Earthquakes at Q2 Stadium features two mid-table teams closely matched in recent form and history. Austin FC holds a slight upper hand at home and has shown slightly better recent performance, while San Jose Earthquakes rely on key players like Josef Martinez for goal threat.
Key Factors to Consider
- Austin FC have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match. San Jose Earthquakes have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches with no wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, conceding 1.4 goals per match as well. Austin FC has been stronger recently with an Asian handicap win rate of 60% compared to San Joseβs 40%, although neither team has frequently kept clean sheets.
- In 10 previous meetings, San Jose Earthquakes lead with 2 wins, Austin FC have 1 win, and 7 games ended in a draw. Austin FC has not lost to San Jose in their last 7 meetings (2 wins and 5 draws), indicating a pattern of closely contested matches often ending in draws.
- No specific injury information available from the current datasets before the match. Final lineups will confirm fitness status closer to kickoff.
- The match is at Q2 Stadium, Austinβs home ground, providing home advantage for Austin FC. Both teams are closely ranked (Austin 9th, San Jose 8th), adding competitiveness. No weather or other external disruptions reported.
- Austin FC appears motivated by a better recent run and home advantage to capitalize on gaining points, while San Jose Earthquakes may be driven to break a winless streak in recent matches and improve standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Austin FC: 105, San Jose Earthquakes: 230, Draw: 270 | Austin FC Win | β β βββ 48% |
| Spread | Austin FC: -0.5 101, San Jose Earthquakes: 50 -133 | Austin FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: 130, Under 3.5: -175 | Under 3.5 Goals | β β β β β 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Austin FC -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 26% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 45% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Austin FC is favored to win based on home advantage, stronger recent form, and slightly higher predicted winning probability. Expect a close and competitive match with potential for multiple goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1