Match Analysis: Austin FC vs Houston Dynamo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-10
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Q2 Stadium, Austin, TX
Game Overview
Austin FC hosts Houston Dynamo in an MLS regular season matchup. Austin FC has a slightly better season record but marginally negative goal difference, showing defensive vulnerabilities. Houston Dynamo struggles on the road but has shown recent winning form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Austin FC holds a 9-6-8 record and has conceded 26 goals at about 1.13 goals per game, with an effective save percentage of 75.2%. Houston Dynamo has a 7-6-11 record and concedes more goals, with a negative goal difference of -9. Austin has a slightly better point average and home advantage.
- Recent head-to-heads favor Austin FC slightly due to home advantage; however, matches have been closely contested with many draws and narrow wins.
- No major injuries reported affecting key starters for either side ahead of the match.
- Playing at home benefits Austin FC, and no significant weather or scheduling disadvantages reported. Motivation may come from Austin looking to improve playoff positioning.
- Austin FC is motivated to consolidate mid-table standings and improve home form. Houston Dynamo aims to gain points on the road but has shown inconsistency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Austin FC 116, Houston Dynamo 234, Draw 236 | Austin FC | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Austin FC -0.5 at 111, Houston Dynamo +50 at -147 | Austin FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 at -106, Under 2.5 at -123 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Austin FC 17% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Austin FC at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Austin FC to win on the moneyline, Austin FC to cover the -0.5 spread, match total under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0