Match Analysis: Augsburg vs Union Berlin – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-17
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: WWK ARENA, Augsburg, Germany
Game Overview
The Bundesliga match between Augsburg and Union Berlin on May 17, 2025, features two mid-table teams with Augsburg currently 11th and Union Berlin 13th. Augsburg come into this game on a poor run, having lost their last three matches with a heavy goal deficit, while Union Berlin are winless in their last five games, struggling particularly away from home. Historically, matches between these sides tend to be low-scoring affairs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Augsburg have been in a slump with three consecutive defeats conceding 9 goals and scoring just 1, signaling both offensive and defensive struggles. Union Berlin are also in poor form with no wins in five matches and have the worst away scoring record in the league with only 15 goals on the road.
- In previous meetings, Augsburg defeated Union Berlin 2-0 away earlier this season. Overall, the historical encounters between these teams have rarely been high-scoring, with only one out of the last six matches surpassing 2.5 goals.
- No specific injury data is available in the current information, but probable lineups suggest both teams will field close to their strongest available squads.
- Both teams have little motivation in terms of league standings as the season concludes. Union Berlin's poor away form and Augsburg's current home advantage at the WWK Arena are notable external conditions.
- Neither team has critical stakes in this final round match, likely leading to a cautious approach. Augsburg might want to end their poor run positively at home, while Union Berlin may be conservative given their away struggles.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Augsburg: 105, Union Berlin: 245, Draw: 260 | Augsburg win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Augsburg: -0.25 -122, Union Berlin: +25 102 | Augsburg -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 3 100, Under: 3 -120 | Under 3 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Augsburg 7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 28% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a low-scoring, tight match with a slight edge to Augsburg due to home form and better motivation. The predicted outcome is a narrow home win or a draw, with total goals under 3 being the most likely scenario.
Predicted Score: 1-0
