Match Analysis: Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: WWK Arena, Augsburg, Germany
Game Overview
Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 meet in a Bundesliga fixture where both sides seek to improve poor starts to the season; Augsburg has 3 points from three games while Mainz is struggling with only 1 point.
Key Factors to Consider
- Augsburg holds a slight edge with a 1-0-2 record and average 1.5 points per match, showing more offensive production (5 goals scored) against a leaky defense (4 goals conceded). Mainz is 0-1-2 with only 1 point and defensive issues as well.
- Recent head-to-heads have been close with no dominant trend; both teams have exchanged wins and draws, suggesting a tight matchup.
- No significant injury reports publicly available for either side affecting core starters, indicating mostly full squads.
- Match played at Augsburg's home ground, which slightly favors them despite their inconsistent home form this season. Weather and venue conditions are typical for September in Germany, not expected to affect play.
- Both teams are highly motivated to gain points early in the season to avoid relegation battles, adding intensity but also cautiousness.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: +173, away: +155, draw: +240 | Draw | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Augsburg 0: -102, Mainz 0: -118 | Mainz 0 (Draw No Bet on Mainz) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | over 2.5: -112, under 2.5: -108 | Over 2.5 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Draw 19% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Draw at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Draw
Predicted Score: 1-1