Match Analysis: Atletico Mineiro vs Santos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Game Overview
Atletico Mineiro hosts Santos in a Brasileirão match where Atletico Mineiro is slight favorite but both teams have mixed recent form and influence from home/away performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atletico Mineiro currently ranks 14th and has struggled for consistency, with some recent losses and draws. Santos ranks slightly lower at 16th but has been undefeated in their last 6 home matches (noting the venue will favor Atletico Mineiro this time). Atletico Mineiro has a stronger recent defensive record, including three clean sheets in a row.
- Atletico Mineiro has not lost to Santos in the last 5 encounters and typically scores around 1.6 goals per game against them. Average goals in meetings tend to be low in the first half (0.4). The most common home result between Santos and Atletico Mineiro has been 3-1, usually when Santos is home, but this match is at Atletico Mineiro's stadium which historically gives them an advantage.
- No prominent injuries reported from data; both teams appear to have their core squads available for this match.
- The match is hosted at Arena MRV in Belo Horizonte, giving Atletico Mineiro home advantage. No adverse weather or other external disruptions reported.
- Both teams sit near the relegation zone; Atletico Mineiro has slightly stronger motivation to secure home points to improve their league standing, while Santos aims to build on their good away resistance.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Atletico Mineiro: -125, Santos: 355, Draw: 245 | Atletico Mineiro | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Atletico Mineiro -0.5: -122, Santos +50: 102 | Atletico Mineiro -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -110, Under 2.25: -110 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Atletico Mineiro -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atletico Mineiro to win on the moneyline with under 2.5 goals scored in the match.
Predicted Score: 1-0