Match Analysis: Atletico Mineiro vs Flamengo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Game Overview
This is a high-stakes clash between Atletico Mineiro and Flamengo in the Brasileirão Betano, with both teams having contrasting league positions and recent form. Flamengo currently leads the league, while Atletico Mineiro sits mid-table. The match is expected to be intense, with both sides having strong attacking options and a history of close encounters.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo has been in excellent form, winning 9 away games in Serie A this season and consistently scoring goals. Atletico Mineiro has shown mixed results, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches but conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game. Flamengo has kept the most clean sheets in the competition (16) and has a strong attacking record, scoring 14 goals in their last 5 matches.
- In the last 50 meetings, Flamengo has won 21 games, Atletico Mineiro has won 18, and there have been 11 draws. Flamengo has a slight edge in recent head-to-head encounters, winning 3 of the last 5 matches. The average goals per game in these encounters is around 2.7, with both teams scoring frequently.
- Atletico Mineiro will be without Igor Gomes (suspension), Alan Franco (injury), Junior Santos (injury), Lyanco (injury), and Tomas Cuello (injury). Flamengo will be missing Allan (injury), Leo Ortiz (injury), and Pedro (injury). These absences could impact both teams' defensive and attacking capabilities.
- The match will be played at Arena MRV, which is Atletico Mineiro's home ground. The home advantage could play a role, but Flamengo's strong away form might neutralize this. The weather is expected to be clear, with no significant impact on the game.
- Flamengo is fighting to maintain their league lead, while Atletico Mineiro is looking to improve their position and secure a top-half finish. Both teams have strong motivation to win, but Flamengo's title aspirations add extra pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atletico Mineiro: 300, Flamengo: -110, Draw: 245 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Atletico Mineiro: 50 -112, Flamengo: -0.5 -108 | Flamengo -0.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.25 -112, Under: 2.25 -108 | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo is favored to win this match due to their superior form, strong away record, and better head-to-head recent results. However, Atletico Mineiro's home advantage and the absence of key players for both teams could make the game more competitive than the odds suggest.
Predicted Score: Atletico Mineiro 1-2 Flamengo