Match Analysis: Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-05
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Atletico Mineiro Home Stadium
Game Overview
Atletico Mineiro faces Bahia in a Brazilian Serie A match with Atletico Mineiro as favorites based on recent form and home advantage, while Bahia has shown resilience in previous encounters.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atletico Mineiro has shown solid defensive form with 11 clean sheets recently and consistent attacking threat led by Rony and Bernard. Bahia has struggled away but is motivated after a narrow win over Atletico earlier this year.
- Recent H2H shows competitive matches; Bahia won the earlier 2-1 at home, but Atletico Mineiro has stronger home results historically. Balanced but slightly favors Atletico at home.
- No major injuries reported for either side, with both teams expected to field near full strength squads.
- Match played at Atletico Mineiro’s venue under mild weather (~23°C). No major external disruptions expected.
- Atletico Mineiro motivated to consolidate top-table position; Bahia looking to improve away record and gain points in relegation battle.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +117 | Atletico Mineiro | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | -115 | Atletico Mineiro -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | -125 | Under 2.25 Goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atletico Mineiro 19% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 26% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atletico Mineiro Moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-0