Match Analysis: Atlético Madrid vs Sevilla – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 3:15 PM UTC
- Location: Wanda Metropolitano, Madrid
Game Overview
Atlético Madrid hosts Sevilla in a key La Liga matchup with Atlético as strong favorites, leveraging their unbeaten home record this season, solid recent form, and superior head-to-head history.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atlético Madrid is currently 4th in La Liga, unbeaten at home this season and showing clear recent progress. Sevilla are underdogs, struggling to win away at Atlético for over 7 years and less consistent lately.
- In the last 10 clashes, Atlético Madrid holds a dominant edge with 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, including two wins last season (4-3 and 2-1).
- No major injuries reported impacting Atlético Madrid’s starting XI; Sevilla’s injury status does not indicate significant absences that would improve their competitiveness here.
- The match venue is the Wanda Metropolitano, Atlético’s strong home fortress. No adverse weather or scheduling issues expected.
- Atlético Madrid is motivated to maintain their high domestic position and home dominance. Sevilla aims to break a long away drought but faces psychological and tactical challenges.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -315, away: 725, draw: 475 | Atlético Madrid | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Atlético Madrid -1.5: -108, Sevilla +1.5: -112 | Atlético Madrid -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over 3: 100, under 3: -120 | Over 3 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlético Madrid 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atlético Madrid to win
Predicted Score: 3-1