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Atlético Madrid vs. Real Madrid Prediction La Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-27
  • Time: 2:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain

Game Overview

The La Liga 2025-26 match between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid is a pivotal Madrid derby held at Atlético's home ground. Atlético currently ranks 9th in La Liga, while Real Madrid leads the table, making Real the favorites. Both teams have a storied rivalry with recent tightly contested matches. Real Madrid enters this game with momentum as league leaders under manager Xabi Alonso, while Atlético looks to capitalize on home advantage to upset their city rivals.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Real Madrid is in top form, holding 1st position in La Liga and benefitting from strong summer signings including Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dean Huijsen. Atlético Madrid sits 9th, showing decent but inconsistent form. Real Madrid's attacking and defensive stats outperform Atlético's this season, reflecting better overall team performance.
  • In recent head-to-heads, Real Madrid has edged Atlético, including 2 matches last season showing balanced but competitive results. Matches tend to be tight with low goal margins, reflecting the intense derby rivalry where defensive solidity and tactical discipline prevail.
  • No explicit key injury updates are available from the sources. Both teams generally report full strength or minor absences in such high profile fixtures, but final lineups and injury news closer to matchday should be confirmed.
  • The match is held at Atlético’s home stadium, Riyadh Air Metropolitano, which provides Atlético with home advantage and support from fans. Weather and pitch conditions are expected normal given the location. No extraordinary external disruptions reported.
  • Real Madrid, as league leaders, are motivated to maintain top position with a win over local rivals. Atlético Madrid is highly motivated to improve their league standing and assert dominance at home, enhancing derby pride. The emotional significance of the Madrid derby adds intensity to both sides’ motivation.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Atlético Madrid: 190, Real Madrid: 135, Draw: 250 Real Madrid win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Atlético Madrid: 25 -125, Real Madrid: -0.25 105 Real Madrid -0.25 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.75: -108, Under 2.75: -112 Under 2.75 goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Real Madrid 13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.75 14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Real Madrid is predicted to win narrowly given their superior form and league position, but Atlético's home advantage and derby motivation suggest a closely contested game likely decided by a single goal.

Predicted Score: Atlético Madrid 1 – 2 Real Madrid


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Atlético Madrid vs. Real Madrid Prediction

Match Analysis: Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-09-27 Time: 2:15 PM UTC Location: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain Game Overview The La Liga 2025-26 match between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid is a pivotal Madrid derby held at Atlético's home ground. Atlético currently ranks 9th in La Liga, while Real […]

atlético madrid Real Madrid September 27, 2025 Soccer

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Espanyol vs. Sevilla Prediction La Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Espanyol vs Sevilla – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-24
  • Time: 8:00 PM UTC
  • Location: RCDE Stadium, Cornella, Spain

Game Overview

Espanyol, currently 6th in La Liga with 18 points from 12 matches, will host Sevilla, 9th with 16 points, at RCDE Stadium. Espanyol has shown strong home form with 13 points from 7 games but enters this match after two consecutive losses. Sevilla has the fourth-best away record in the league with 9 points from 6 matches and is seeking back-to-back wins to improve their standing. Both teams display similar competitiveness making this a balanced and tactical encounter.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Espanyol has a 5-3-4 record with recent losses to Alaves and Villarreal, highlighting some recent defensive concerns. Sevilla holds a 5-1-6 record with strong away performances but mixed results overall, including recent wins and losses. Espanyol has scored 15 goals and conceded 9, while Sevilla is close behind with 16 points and slightly weaker defensive numbers.
  • The last five meetings suggest a competitive rivalry with Sevilla slightly edging Espanyol. Previous recent matches include draws and close wins for Sevilla (e.g., 1-1 on Jan 25, 2025, and Sevilla winning 2-0 on Oct 25, 2024). Historical stats show Sevilla with some advantage but no dominance.
  • No specific injury data available from current sources; both squads presumably near full strength given no explicit unavailable players reported.
  • Match will be held at Espanyol’s home ground which historically gives them a slight edge. Weather or other external conditions were not indicated as factors. The match timing and rest days seem standard for both teams with no noted disadvantages.
  • Espanyol is motivated to avoid a third consecutive defeat and maintain their top-6 position. Sevilla looks to improve their league standing with consecutive wins and has a solid away ambition. Both sides have clear incentives to perform well.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Espanyol: 103, Sevilla: 290, Draw: 225 Espanyol win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Espanyol -0.5: 102, Sevilla +50: -122 Espanyol -0.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.25: -108, Under 2.25: -112 Under 2.25 goals ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Espanyol 2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.25 4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

A balanced contest is expected with a slight edge to Espanyol due to home advantage and current league standing. A draw or narrow victory for Espanyol is the most likely outcome.

Predicted Score: 1-1


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Elche CF vs. Real Madrid Prediction La Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Elche CF vs Real Madrid – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 8:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Estadio Martínez Valero, Elche, Spain

Game Overview

Elche CF, currently 11th in La Liga, face the league leaders Real Madrid at home. Real Madrid has been in dominant form with 10 wins out of 12 matches and a strong goal difference, while Elche has a modest record with recent struggles against top teams.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Real Madrid leads La Liga with a record of 10-1-1 and a +16 goal difference, showing strong attack and solid defense. Elche has struggled with only 3 wins, 6 losses, and a negative goal difference of -3, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Recent encounters favor Real Madrid, who have won multiple meetings including a 3-0 victory in October 2024. Elche has not secured a win against Real Madrid in their last five matches.
  • No specific injury reports are available from the current data. However, Real Madrid's key players including Vinícius Júnior, Fede Valverde, and Rodrygo remain fit and in form.
  • The match is at Elche's home ground, Estadio Martínez Valero, which may provide slight advantage despite the quality gap between the teams. Weather or other external disruptions are not indicated.
  • Real Madrid is motivated to maintain their top spot and extend their unbeaten run, while Elche aims to gain vital points to climb to mid-table and avoid relegation fears.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Elche CF: +600, Real Madrid: -260, Draw: +430 Real Madrid win ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Elche CF: +1.25 at +102, Real Madrid: -1.25 at -122 Real Madrid to cover -1.25 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under Over 3.25: +100, Under 3.25: -120 Over 3.25 goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Real Madrid -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 3.25 20%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3.25 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Real Madrid’s superior form, quality, and consistent dominance in previous encounters, they are heavily favored to win this match comfortably.

Predicted Score: Elche CF 1 – 3 Real Madrid


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Getafe vs. Atlético Madrid Prediction La Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Getafe vs Atlético Madrid – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 5:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe, Spain

Game Overview

Getafe hosts Atlético Madrid in a La Liga clash at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. Getafe currently sits in the top half of the table, while Atlético Madrid is firmly in the top four, making this a high-stakes encounter. Atlético Madrid is favored to win, but Getafe has shown resilience at home and has a history of competitive matches against top teams.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Getafe is ranked 7th-8th in La Liga, with a solid defensive record and a tendency to grind out results. Atlético Madrid is 4th-5th, boasting a strong attacking lineup and consistent form. Atlético has won 7 of their last 12 league games, while Getafe has 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses. Atlético's recent form includes a 5-1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt in Europe, showing their attacking prowess.
  • Recent head-to-head matches show Atlético Madrid dominating, with a 5-0 win in the Copa del Rey and a 1-0 league victory in December 2024. However, Getafe managed a 2-1 win in March 2025, indicating they can compete at home. Historically, Atlético Madrid has won 6 of the last 10 meetings, with Getafe winning 2 and 2 draws.
  • No major injuries reported for either team. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups. Atlético Madrid's key players like Jan Oblak and Robin Le Normand are fit and in form.
  • The match is played at Getafe's home ground, which is known for its tough atmosphere. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no significant impact on play. Atlético Madrid's recent European commitments may affect their stamina, but their squad depth should mitigate this.
  • Atlético Madrid is pushing for a top-three finish and Champions League qualification, while Getafe aims to secure a European spot. Both teams have strong motivation to win, but Atlético's ambitions are slightly higher given their league position.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Atlético Madrid: -138, Getafe: 425, Draw: 255 Atlético Madrid ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Atlético Madrid: -0.75 -102, Getafe: 75 -118 Atlético Madrid -0.75 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 2 -115, Under: 2 -105 Under 2 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Atlético Madrid 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2 27%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Atlético Madrid is favored to win, but Getafe's home form and defensive solidity make this a challenging match. Expect a tight game with Atlético Madrid edging it due to their superior attacking quality.

Predicted Score: Getafe 0-1 Atlético Madrid


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Real Betis vs. Girona Prediction La Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Real Betis vs Girona – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 3:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Estadio de La Cartuja, Seville, Spain

Game Overview

Real Betis, currently ranked 5th in La Liga with 20 points, will host Girona, ranked 18th with 10 points, at Estadio de La Cartuja. Betis has shown stronger season performance and control, while Girona struggles near the relegation zone. The head-to-head record heavily favors Real Betis with 10 wins to Girona's 1 in their historic meetings, including recent league encounters.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Real Betis holds a positive recent form with 5 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses in 12 matches, showing solid defense and moderate offensive strength. Girona's form is weaker, positioned low with several losses and limited wins. Betis' top forwards, including C Hernández (5 goals) and Antony (4 goals), contribute significantly to their attack.
  • The historical matchups greatly favor Real Betis with 10 victories, compared to Girona's single win and 3 draws. Recent matches also show Betis outperforming Girona, including a 3-1 win and several draws that indicate Betis' dominance at home.
  • Available sources do not specify current injuries. However, no major absences for key players from either team are noted, suggesting squads are relatively intact for the match.
  • The match is held at Estadio de La Cartuja, a neutral venue in Seville rather than Real Betis' regular stadium, possibly reducing home advantage slightly. Weather and other conditions are not reported to affect gameplay significantly.
  • Real Betis aims to consolidate its upper-table position and challenge higher-ranked teams, motivated by strong league standing. Girona is fighting to escape relegation pressures, likely to play cautiously with defensive focus to gain points.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Real Betis: -190, Draw: 360, Girona: 450 Real Betis Win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Real Betis -1: -115, Girona +1: -105 Real Betis -1 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 3: -102, Under 3: -118 Under 3 Goals ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Real Betis -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 3 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Real Betis is predicted to win due to superior form, squad quality, and historical dominance. Girona's underdog status and lower league position reduce their chances.

Predicted Score: 2-1


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Oviedo vs. Rayo Vallecano Prediction La Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Oviedo vs Rayo Vallecano – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 1:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo, Spain

Game Overview

The LaLiga match between Real Oviedo, currently ranked 20th, and Rayo Vallecano, ranked 12th, is set at Oviedo's home ground Carlos Tartiere. Oviedo struggles with form and table position, while Rayo Vallecano has a mid-table standing, reflecting stronger recent performances.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Oviedo's recent poor form and low league standing contrast with Rayo Vallecano's more stable mid-table position. Oviedo adopts a 4-2-3-1 formation with key players like José Salomon Rondon spearheading attacks, but has defensive vulnerabilities. Rayo Vallecano has shown better consistency and defensive stability.
  • Historically, Rayo Vallecano holds a better record against Oviedo, with more wins in recent direct encounters, suggesting a psychological and tactical edge in the matchup.
  • No specific injury updates are available from the current sources, suggesting both teams might be near full strength, but any last-minute changes could impact Oviedo more due to their lack of squad depth.
  • Playing at home offers Oviedo some advantage but the team's low confidence and form diminishes this. Weather and other external conditions are typical for late November in Oviedo with no unusual factors reported.
  • Oviedo faces strong pressure to improve results due to relegation zone proximity, potentially increasing their motivation. Rayo Vallecano, more stable in mid-table, may play with slightly less pressure but more tactical focus on maintaining or improving position.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: 240, away: 120, draw: 225 Away Win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread home: -108, away: -112 Rayo Vallecano -0.25 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under over: -102, under: -118 Under 2.25 Goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Rayo Vallecano 70%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.25 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Rayo Vallecano at 70% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rayo Vallecano is more likely to win the match given their higher league position, better form, and favorable head-to-head record. Oviedo might struggle to convert chances despite home advantage.

Predicted Score: 0-1


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Villarreal vs. Mallorca Prediction La Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Villarreal vs Mallorca – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 8:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal, Spain

Game Overview

Villarreal hosts Mallorca in a La Liga fixture at Estadio de la Cerámica. Villarreal comes into the match with strong form, ranking 3rd in the league with 26 points from 12 games, while Mallorca is positioned 15th with 12 points. Villarreal has been undefeated at home in recent matches and has shown solid attacking and defensive performance, whereas Mallorca has had an inconsistent campaign with mixed results and struggles for consistency.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Villarreal has scored 14 goals in the last 5 matches and holds the most clean sheets in the league (6). They are unbeaten in La Liga since early October and have won their last two league matches against Mallorca. Mallorca has scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches and kept 2 clean sheets in 6 recent games, showing some improvement but inconsistent overall.
  • Villarreal has a favorable recent head-to-head record against Mallorca, winning the last two encounters including a 4-0 home victory in their most recent meeting. Across the last 10 meetings, Villarreal won 5 times, Mallorca 3 times, with 2 draws.
  • No specific injury updates are reported for either side from available data, suggesting both teams may have their key players available.
  • The match is played at Villarreal’s home ground, providing them a home advantage. There is no indication of adverse weather or other external disruptions affecting the game environment.
  • Villarreal aims to consolidate their strong start to the season and maintain top positions in the table. Mallorca seeks to improve their form and avoid slipping further down the standings, aiming to gain points away from home.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Mallorca: 5.75, Villarreal: -2.4, Draw: 3.85 Villarreal Win ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Mallorca: 1.25, villarreal: -1.25 Villarreal -1.25 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 2.75, Under: 2.75 Over 2.75 Goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Villarreal -15%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.75 0%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Villarreal is favored to win given their superior form, home advantage, and head-to-head dominance. A competitive match is expected, but Villarreal’s strength suggests a 2-1 victory.

Predicted Score: 2-1


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CA Osasuna vs. Real Sociedad Prediction La Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: CA Osasuna vs Real Sociedad – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 5:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona, Spain

Game Overview

The La Liga match between CA Osasuna and Real Sociedad at Estadio El Sadar features two teams struggling near the relegation zone, with Osasuna currently 16th and Real Sociedad 14th. Osasuna has won 3, drawn 2, and lost 7 of their 12 games, scoring 9 and conceding 13 goals, while Real Sociedad has 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, scoring 14 and conceding 17. Osasuna has shown home strength, gaining 10 of their 11 points at El Sadar, while Real Sociedad's away form is modest with 3 points from 3 draws. Both sides have disciplinary challenges and some injury issues, but Osasuna seeks to build on recent success against Sociedad, including breaking a long winless streak at home.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Osasuna is in poor form with only 1 point from their last 4 matches and a total of 3 wins this season. Real Sociedad is marginally better, accumulating 8 points from the last 4 games and standing 2 points clear of relegation danger. Osasuna relies on home advantage, having secured the majority of their points at El Sadar, while Sociedad has struggled to win away.
  • Osasuna has won the last 3 league meetings against Real Sociedad, ending a 17-match winless streak against them dating back to 2012, including 9 straight home matches. The most recent Copa del Rey meeting in Anoeta ended with Real Sociedad progressing, adding intensity to this fixture.
  • Osasuna will miss key goalscorer Budimir and also Rosier and Iker Benito. However, they are regaining some players like Aimar Oroz, Torró, and Boyomo. Moncayola is doubtful. Real Sociedad has no major injury alerts reported but will need to see if they bring full strength to the match.
  • The match could be impacted by snow in Pamplona around kickoff, potentially affecting playing conditions and ball movement. Both teams are under pressure due to their proximity to the relegation zone, with playing under cold weather conditions likely challenging defensive organization.
  • Osasuna is highly motivated to secure a home victory to climb out of the relegation zone, especially after recent poor results. Real Sociedad aims to maintain their slightly safer position in the table and extend their unbeaten away streak in La Liga, pushing for valuable points in a tough fixture.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline CA Osasuna: 1.78, Real Sociedad: 1.75, Draw: 2 CA Osasuna to win ★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread CA Osasuna: -108 (0 spread), Real Sociedad: -112 (0 spread) CA Osasuna +0 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.25: 1.02, Under 2.25: 1.22 Under 2.25 goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline CA Osasuna 20%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.25 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: CA Osasuna at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Osasuna's recent home successes against Real Sociedad, their motivation to escape relegation, and Real Sociedad's away struggles, a tight contest is expected with Osasuna slightly favored to win. However, weather conditions and injuries suggest a low-scoring game with a possible draw if Sociedad's defense holds strong.

Predicted Score: 1-0


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Barcelona vs. Athletic Bilbao Prediction La Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 3:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Spotify Camp Nou

Game Overview

FC Barcelona hosts Athletic Bilbao in the 13th round of the 2025/26 La Liga season at Spotify Camp Nou. Barcelona is currently 2nd in the league with strong recent performances, whereas Athletic Bilbao sits 7th. Barcelona has a better recent form and home advantage. Recent head-to-heads show Barcelona winning the last 3 meetings.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Barcelona has scored 17 goals in their last 5 matches but failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 consecutive games. Athletic Bilbao have scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches, with Alex Berenguer creating most big chances and Maroan Sannadi leading shots on target per match. Barcelona’s top scorer Lewandowski has 7 goals in 9 matches.
  • Barcelona has won the previous 3 matches against Athletic Bilbao, including a 3-0 win on May 25, 2025, and a 2-0 win in the Spanish Supercopa earlier this year, indicating recent dominance.
  • Both of Barcelona’s wingers are expected to be available for the match after Raphinha returned to training, though one midfielder remains unavailable. No significant injuries reported for Athletic Bilbao.
  • The match takes place at Spotify Camp Nou, giving Barcelona home advantage. Supporters and fan engagement are high with events organized such as the Barcelona fan gathering at Smithfield Hall NYC ahead of this and other matches.
  • Barcelona’s motivation is high to maintain pressure on Real Madrid at the top of the table, while Athletic Bilbao looks to improve from their mid-table position and disrupt Barcelona’s momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Barcelona: -230, Athletic Bilbao: 525, Draw: 395 Barcelona win ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Barcelona -1.25: -108, Athletic Bilbao +1.25: -112 Barcelona -1.25 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 3: -120, Under 3: 100 Over 3 goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Barcelona -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 3 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Barcelona to win in a competitive but possibly high-scoring match due to defensive vulnerabilities and attacking firepower on both sides.

Predicted Score: 3-1


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Alavés vs. Celta Vigo Prediction La Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Alavés vs Celta Vigo – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 22 November 2025
  • Time: 1:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

Game Overview

Deportivo Alavés hosts Celta Vigo in a La Liga matchday fixture at their home stadium. Alavés, sitting 10th in the standings, face an away Celta Vigo side looking to improve their position. This is a strategic defensive clash where Alavés' solid home record and compact defensive system will be tested against Celta's attacking capabilities, highlighted by the form of Borja Iglesias.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Alavés have demonstrated exceptional home strength with only one defeat in the current La Liga campaign and have conceded more than one goal in a match just once this season, showcasing a well-organized defensive unit. The team averages 0.9 goals scored per game. Celta Vigo average 1.3 goals per game but struggle significantly against compact defensive organizations, regularly dropping points when facing solid defensive lines. Borja Iglesias leads Celta's attack with 5 goals and 2 assists, ranking 7th in La Liga's top scorers.
  • Over the last 10 encounters, Celta Vigo have dominated with 6 victories compared to Alavés' 2 wins and 2 draws. In last season's matchups, Alavés failed to secure victory, losing 1-2 at Balaidos and drawing 1-1 at Mendizorroza. Head-to-head scoring averages show Alavés at 1.0 goals while Celta average 2.1 goals per game in direct encounters. The historical advantage belongs to Celta despite Alavés' current home-ground strength.
  • Specific injury information is not available in the provided sources. Current team lineups and injury status should be verified through official team announcements prior to match kickoff.
  • Alavés' home advantage at Estadio de Mendizorroza is a significant factor, with the team's fortress-like defense at home. Celta's struggles against defensive systems similar to Alavés' three-central-defender formation present tactical challenges. Weather conditions and crowd support favor the home side.
  • Alavés seek to maintain their impressive home record and consolidate their position in the upper-middle standings. Celta Vigo aim to break their pattern of underperforming against compact defenses and capitalize on their superior recent head-to-head record to climb the standings.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Alavés 151 | Draw 200 | Celta Vigo 205 Alavés Win ★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread Alavés -0.25 112 | Celta Vigo 25 -134 Alavés -0.25 ★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under Over 2.25 105 | Under 2.25 -125 Under 2.25 ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Alavés 56%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.25 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Alavés at 56% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alavés are favored to secure a victory at home due to their exceptional defensive organization, limited goals conceded at Mendizorroza, and Celta's documented struggles against defensive compactness. However, Celta's superior head-to-head record and attacking prowess through Borja Iglesias present genuine danger. The match is expected to be low-scoring given both teams' averages and Alavés' defensive strategy.

Predicted Score: Alavés 1-0 Celta Vigo


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