Match Analysis: Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Game Overview
Atlanta United FC hosts Toronto FC in an MLS matchup where Atlanta are favorites despite a challenging season, while Toronto FC has also struggled but shows slightly better form recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atlanta United FC has a poor season record (4-10-12) with a negative goal differential (-18) and below-average expected goals. Their defense is leaky conceding 1.88 goals per game, with only 2 clean sheets all season. Toronto FC performs similarly poorly (5-8-13) but has slightly better recent results and win percentage of 33%, same as Atlanta.
- Recent head-to-head tends to favor Atlanta slightly at home, but matches are often close and competitive. Both sides have shown inconsistent performances in prior meetings.
- No critical injuries reported for either side; expected goalkeepers Brad Guzan (Atlanta) and Sean Johnson (Toronto) set to start, providing experience in goal.
- Atlanta's home advantage at Mercedes-Benz Stadium statistically improves their chances; travel could slightly affect Toronto's performance. Weather and pitch conditions expected to be neutral.
- Both teams have low playoff prospects, but Atlanta might be slightly more motivated to impress their home fans and improve standings after poor results, while Toronto could look to stabilize form on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Atlanta United FC: -167, Toronto FC: 390, Draw: 330 | Atlanta United FC | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | Atlanta United FC -0.5: -172, Toronto FC +50: 129 | Atlanta United FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -175, Under 2.5: 132 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Atlanta United FC -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 28% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atlanta United FC to Win
Predicted Score: 2-1