Match Analysis: Atlanta United FC vs San Diego FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Game Overview
San Diego FC (17-5-8) visits Atlanta United FC (5-11-13) in an MLS matchup. San Diego has been in strong form with multiple wins recently, while Atlanta has struggled and ranks near the bottom in defensive metrics. Despite similar bookmaker odds, recent form and statistics favor San Diego.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego FC boasts a strong 17-5-8 record and is on a positive run with multiple recent wins, while Atlanta United has a poor 5-11-13 record and is ranked low in xG and defensive stats, conceding 54 goals with only 4 clean sheets.
- Limited detailed historical H2H available; however, San Diego FC's superior season record and recent performances suggest dominance over Atlanta United.
- No critical injuries reported for either side affecting key positions or starters including goalkeepers Jayden Hibbert (Atlanta) and C.J. dos Santos (San Diego).
- Match is played at Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium, providing home advantage to Atlanta but so far their form at home has been inconsistent; San Diegoβs strong away resilience noted.
- San Diego FC motivated to secure playoff position with strong midseason form; Atlanta United fighting to improve standing and avoid further slide, but motivation weighed in favor of San Diego due to standings and form.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Atlanta United FC: 150, San Diego FC: 156, Draw: 270 | San Diego FC | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Atlanta United FC -0.5: 142, San Diego FC +50: -192 | San Diego FC +0.5 | β β β β β 73% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -179, Under 2.5: 133 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego FC 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 44% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego FC to win on the moneyline, covering the spread, and the match to go under 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: San Diego FC 1 – 0 Atlanta United FC