Match Analysis: Atlanta United FC vs D.C. United – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, USA
Game Overview
The MLS regular season match between Atlanta United FC and D.C. United promises a competitive contest at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with both teams struggling near the bottom of the standings. Atlanta United currently ranks 14th while D.C. United holds 15th place, both vying for crucial points toward the season's end. Home advantage favors Atlanta United, but recent form for both teams has been weak, including recent losses in their last matches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atlanta United has played 33 matches with a record of 5 wins, 12 draws, and 16 losses, scoring 37 goals and conceding 62 (goal difference -25). At home, their form is slightly better (4W-7D-5L). D.C. Unitedβs record is 5 wins, 10 draws, and 18 losses with 29 goals scored and 65 conceded (goal difference -36). Away form for DC is poor with 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses. Both teams are facing goal-scoring difficulties and defensive vulnerabilities.
- Historically, Atlanta United leads the head-to-head (H2H) record with 10 wins against D.C. Unitedβs 7, along with 3 draws. The teams played once this season, and recent H2H data shows a close but slightly favorable trend toward Atlanta United.
- Atlanta United will miss Brooks Lennon (Achilles tendon injury), Matthew Edwards (hamstring injury), Ajani Fortune (injury), and Will Reilly (injury). D.C. United are missing Luis Barraza and Aaron Herrera due to suspension, and Kristian Fletcher due to a knee injury. These absences potentially impact squad depth and defensive stability.
- Brad Guzan recently announced retirement, which may have emotional impacts on the Atlanta team. The match is played at Atlantaβs home stadium, which should provide a boost under current circumstances. Both teams are under pressure to improve their league position.
- Both teams are near the bottom of MLS standings and need results to boost morale and secure a better season end. Atlanta may have slightly better motivation playing at home and aiming to exploit D.C. Unitedβs weaker away form and suspensions.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta United FC: -111, D.C. United: 250, Draw: 300 | Atlanta United FC win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Atlanta United FC: -0.5 -116, D.C. United: +50 -115 | Atlanta United FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: 121, Under 3.5: -161 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta United FC 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atlanta United FC is favored to win by a narrow margin given home advantage and historical edge, but the match could be closely contested with a moderate chance of a draw due to both teamsβ form struggles. The match is likely to be tight with limited goals given recent defensive records.
Predicted Score: 2-1