Match Analysis: Atlanta United FC vs Columbus Crew SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, USA
Game Overview
The upcoming MLS match between Atlanta United FC and Columbus Crew SC is scheduled at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Both teams have a competitive MLS history with Columbus Crew holding a slight edge in the head-to-head record. Currently, Atlanta United rank 12th and Columbus Crew 7th in the standings, indicating Columbus' relatively stronger form. Recent form shows Columbus with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, whereas Atlanta United has struggled with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. The match is expected to be competitive with notable offensive threats on both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atlanta United have shown an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match recently, with no wins on Asian handicap in the last 5 games. Columbus Crew average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with a 60% Asian handicap win rate in the same period. Columbus is also positioned higher in the league, reflecting comparatively better performance this season.
- Across 24 matches since 2017, Columbus Crew leads with 13 wins, Atlanta United have 7, and there have been 4 draws. Recent encounters show Atlanta United 8 wins, Columbus 11, and 3 draws. Past games have produced moderate goal scoring with about 50% of games going over total goals and Columbus showing stronger recent results against Atlanta.
- No current detailed injury reports are available from provided data, limiting precise assessment of key player availability or impact.
- The game is played at Atlanta's home ground, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, providing a home advantage. Weather or other external conditions are not detailed but could affect gameplay typical of late MLS seasons.
- Columbus Crew, positioned 7th, may be motivated to maintain or improve playoff positioning. Atlanta, at 12th, will be motivated to gain critical points to climb standings, suggesting both sides have strong incentives for a competitive match.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta United FC: 163, Columbus Crew SC: 140, Draw: 280 | Columbus Crew SC Win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Atlanta United FC +50: -179, Columbus Crew SC -0.5: 133 | Columbus Crew SC -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: 128, Under 3.5: -172 | Under 3.5 Goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Columbus Crew SC 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Columbus Crew SC at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Columbus Crew SC is favored to win due to better recent form, superior league position, and favorable head-to-head record. However, a draw is possible given Atlantaβs home advantage and previous closely fought matches.
Predicted Score: 1-2