Match Analysis: Atalanta BC vs Parma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-25
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Atalanta BC Home Stadium
Game Overview
The Serie A match between Atalanta BC and Parma promises an engaging contest. Atalanta, currently ranked 3rd in the league, face Parma who are positioned 16th. Historically, these teams have met twice this season with one win each, and Parma holds a slight edge in total goals scored over these encounters. Atalanta boasts a strong home scoring record and a more consistent form overall, while Parma has shown decent away goal potential. The match is expected to be competitive with potential for multiple goals given both teams’ offensive output and historical goal averages per match.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atalanta averages 1.98 goals per match at home and has seen over 2.5 total goals in 52% of their home games this season. Parma scores fewer goals on average (1.16 per match) but has recorded over 2.5 goals in 54.55% of their away games, indicating both teams can contribute to a goal-rich game. Atalanta has a current 80% win rate over the last six months, while Parma’s is at 20%, illustrating Atalanta’s stronger form and consistency.
- The two teams have faced each other twice this season, with one win apiece. Historically, their matches average around 3.5 to 4.5 goals per game. Parma leads narrowly on total goals scored across the last 12 months’ encounters (5 to 4). Atalanta won the more recent November meeting 3-1, showing home advantage significance.
- No specific injury information is available at this time for either squad, suggesting both teams may field near full-strength lineups.
- No notable external conditions, such as extreme weather or travel disruptions, are reported. The match taking place at Atalanta’s home ground favors the home side due to familiarity and fan support.
- Atalanta, fighting for a higher league position or European qualification, have higher motivation. Parma, close to relegation zone thresholds, are motivated to secure vital points to improve survival chances. Both teams have strong incentives to win.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Atalanta BC: -125, Parma: 390, Draw: 250 | Atalanta BC win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Atalanta BC: -0.75 -102, Parma: 75 -118 | Atalanta BC -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.75: -118, Under 2.75: -102 | Over 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Atalanta BC 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atalanta BC is favored to win given their better recent form, superior home stats, and stronger motivation. A moderately high-scoring game is expected given both teams' tendencies to be involved in matches with over 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 3-1