Match Analysis: Atalanta BC vs Lazio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: New Balance Arena, Bergamo, Italy
Game Overview
Atalanta BC, currently 6th in Serie A and unbeaten so far, hosts Lazio, ranked 13th, both in the early stages of the 2025 season. Atalanta remains one of the strongest unbeaten teams with a solid defense and returning attackers improving their final-third threat. Lazio has struggled for form and consistency, coming off a high-scoring but demanding recent game, and is missing some key players.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atalanta is one of only two unbeaten teams in Serie A, showing resilience and defensive solidity. Their recent home draw against Como showed some offensive issues, but returning attackers are expected to boost scoring. Lazio experienced a dramatic 3-3 home draw last match but generally lacks consistency and momentum. Lazio's away form and squad depth are concerns.
- Recent seasons show a competitive rivalry with Atalanta and Lazio playing two Serie A matches last season. Atalanta has been tough to beat at home versus Lazio. Historically, Atalanta holds a slight advantage in matchups played at Bergamo.
- Lazio is missing key squad members, weakening their lineup especially in attack and midfield. Atalanta has seen some return of attackers improving their availability and offensive options. No major injury concerns reported for Atalanta.
- The match being at Atalanta's home ground New Balance Arena adds a home advantage factor. The timing after the international break may affect Lazio more due to their key absences. Motivation levels are heightened for Atalanta to maintain unbeaten status and to capitalize on Lazio's disruption.
- Atalanta are motivated to maintain their strong unbeaten run and keep pressure on the league leaders. Lazio seeks to find form and improve their league position but face difficulties due to form and absences.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atalanta BC: -140, Lazio: 375, Draw: 315 | Atalanta BC win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Atalanta BC -0.75: -112, Lazio +75: -108 | Bet on Atalanta BC -0.75 spread | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: 103, Under 2.75: -123 | Under 2.75 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atalanta BC -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atalanta to win, with a confident home edge and Lazio struggling to break their recent away downturn.
Predicted Score: 2-1