Match Analysis: Aston Villa vs Bologna – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-25
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England
Game Overview
Aston Villa hosts Bologna in the UEFA Europa League group stage opener. Villa, despite home advantage, are struggling for form and goals at the start of their Premier League season, while Bologna arrives in better shape with a recent Serie A win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Aston Villa has yet to win in their domestic league this season and has attacking struggles, whereas Bologna has started their Serie A campaign decently with a recent victory.
- The last meeting saw Aston Villa secure an easy win, indicating some historical home advantage and possible tactical superiority.
- No critical injury information is provided, but Aston Villa may have some offensive personnel issues limiting goal threats.
- Match is at Villa Park with VAR in use; crowd support favors Aston Villa, but their form undermines this advantage.
- Both clubs are motivated for a strong Europa League start, with Bologna possibly more confident due to recent form and Villa needing results to improve morale.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Aston Villa -119, Bologna +360, Draw +245 | Aston Villa | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Aston Villa -0.5 -119, Bologna +50 -101 | Aston Villa -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 +102, Under 2.5 -122 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Aston Villa 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Aston Villa to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-0