Match Analysis: AS Roma vs Parma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-29
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Italy
Game Overview
AS Roma, in strong Serie A form and unbeaten at home this season, hosts Parma, a mid-table side struggling for away wins. Roma’s historical dominance over Parma is significant, with 23 wins in 31 meetings and a recent 5-0 thrashing at home just 10 months ago. Roma have more quality and depth, while Parma’s limited attacking options are further hampered by injuries, especially in midfield and attack.
Key Factors to Consider
- Roma are in strong overall form (5 wins, 2 losses in 7 matches), including two home wins this season. Parma’s recent form is mixed (1 win, 4 draws, 3 losses), with no away victories to their name this campaign[1]. Roma’s attack, though recently less prolific, has historically feasted on Parma. Parma have struggled to score, failing to find the net in their last three games[3].
- AS Roma have dominated Parma historically, winning 23 of the last 31 meetings and outscoring Parma 67-23 over that span. In their most recent clash at Stadio Olimpico (December 2024), Roma won 5-0[1][4]. Recent form shows Roma winning the last two encounters, both by multiple goals[3].
- Roma are missing Edoardo Bove and Angelino, but their squad depth is strong. Parma’s injuries are far more impactful: Pontus Almqvist, Emanuele Valeri, Gaetano Oristanio, Jacob Ondrejka, and Matija Frigan are all sidelined—depleting both their creativity and attacking options[3].
- None significant. Stadio Olimpico should provide a strong home edge, with the crowd backing a confident Roma side.
- Roma, currently 4th, need to keep pace at the top, especially facing a weaker side at home. Parma, 15th, are likely to prioritize defensive solidity to avoid a heavy loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Roma -208 | Parma +600 | Draw +320 | AS Roma Win | ★★★★☆ 82% |
| Spread | Roma -1 (-118) | Parma +1 (-102) | AS Roma -1 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 (-118) | Under 2.25 (-102) | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Roma 21% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: AS Roma at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Roma are substantial favorites and likely to dominate both possession and chances. Expect them to capitalize on Parma’s defensive frailties and lack of attacking threat, especially given Parma’s depleted squad.
Predicted Score: 3-0 AS Roma
