Match Analysis: AS Roma vs Hellas Verona – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Italy
Game Overview
AS Roma, currently 4th in Serie A, hosts Hellas Verona, ranked 15th, in a Serie A Round 5 clash. Roma has shown a strong start to the season and recently secured a derby win and Europa League victory, while Verona has struggled, with just three points from four league matches and an early Coppa Italia exit.
Key Factors to Consider
- Roma shows strong form with multiple wins in league and European competition, possessing one of Serie A's highest ball possession rates. Verona has faced difficulties, with no wins in regular time so far this season and just one win in their last 13 league matches dating back to last season.
- Roma dominates the historical series with 12 wins, compared to Verona's 4 wins and 4 draws since they last met. Verona has not beaten Roma at Stadio Olimpico since 1973, indicating a strong home advantage for Roma.
- No specific updated injury reports provided in the current data set; typical lineups expected without major absences.
- Roma benefits from home advantage at the iconic Stadio Olimpico and maintains better possession statistics, likely restricting Veronaβs attacking opportunities. Verona faces psychological and tactical challenges from their poor away record and recent form.
- Roma aims to secure their third straight win to maintain momentum in Serie A and European play, while Verona seeks to break their winless streak and improve their league standing. Romaβs recent derby success boosts confidence, and Veronaβs penalty exit in Coppa Italia may affect morale negatively.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Roma: -217, Hellas Verona: 625, Draw: 335 | AS Roma win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | AS Roma: -1.25 100, Hellas Verona: 1.25 -120 | AS Roma -1.25 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -120, Under 2.25: 100 | Over 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Roma 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AS Roma is favored to win with a strong margin given superior form, home advantage, and dominant head-to-head history. Expect Roma to control the match and limit Verona's chances.
Predicted Score: 3-1