Match Analysis: AS Monaco vs Metz – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 3:15 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Louis II
Game Overview
AS Monaco hosts Metz in Ligue 1 in a matchup where Monaco is a heavy favorite due to superior recent form, strong home performance, and dominant head-to-head record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Monaco is 3-1 in their last 4 Ligue 1 games with convincing home wins and strong attacking output averaging 3 goals per game at home this season. Metz struggles, with 0-1-3 in their last 4 and no away points this season.
- Monaco has won 6 of the last 7 matches against Metz, often with clear margins, including a recent 5-2 victory.
- No significant injuries reported for Monaco affecting key players. Metzβs squad status shows no critical absences impacting starting lineup strength.
- Monaco faced a heavy Champions League defeat recently but showed resilience with a late goal. The home advantage at Stade Louis II is substantial for Monaco.
- Monaco is motivated to maintain their winning momentum in Ligue 1 after Champions League disappointment, while Metz struggles for points and confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -390 (Monaco), +800 (Metz), +525 (Draw) | Monaco | β β β β β 80% |
Spread | -1.75 -110 (Monaco), +1.75 -110 (Metz) | Monaco -1.75 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 3.5 -102, Under 3.5 -118 | Over 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AS Monaco -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.5 19% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Monaco to win (moneyline), Monaco -1.75 spread, over 3.5 goals
Predicted Score: 3-1