Match Analysis: Arouca vs Rio Ave FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca, Portugal
Game Overview
This Liga Portugal match features Arouca hosting Rio Ave FC. Recent trends show Rio Ave is undefeated in 12 of their last 13 matches against Arouca, indicating strong recent performance despite Arouca's slight historical edge in total wins. The teams have closely matched head-to-head statistics with balanced scoring rates.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arouca's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 0.8 on average. Rio Ave's last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.8 goals per match, showing a more offensive but slightly vulnerable defense.
- Across 20 past meetings, Arouca has 7 wins and Rio Ave 8, with 5 draws. Recent seasons favor Rio Ave, who are undefeated in 12 of their last 13 clashes, suggesting momentum advantage.
- Available data does not specify impactful injuries for either team, indicating likely full-strength squads.
- Match played at home grounds of Arouca may provide some home advantage but recent head-to-head suggests Rio Ave handles this well. No significant external disruptions reported.
- Rio Ave currently has stronger motivation to maintain their unbeaten streak against Arouca and improve their upper mid-table position, while Arouca aims to capitalize on home advantage to start the season strongly.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Arouca: +100, Rio_Ave_FC: +270, Draw: +240 | Arouca | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Spread | Arouca_-0.5: +102, Rio_Ave_+50: -122 | Arouca -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Over/under | Over_2.5: +105, Under_2.5: -125 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Arouca -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Arouca to win. Spread: Arouca -0.5. Over/Under: Under 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-0