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Arouca vs. Casa Pia Prediction Primeira Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Arouca vs Casa Pia – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-14
  • Time: 5:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Game Overview

Arouca hosts Casa Pia in the Portugal Primeira Liga at Estadio Municipal de Arouca. Arouca holds a mid-table position with stable recent performance, while Casa Pia struggles near relegation. The game is a critical opportunity for Arouca to consolidate points and for Casa Pia to improve their standing.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Arouca has a solid home form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches. Casa Pia has struggled offensively, scoring only 2 goals in 4 matches and sits 14th in the table with 3 points.
  • Historically, Arouca has been the stronger team at home versus Casa Pia, with a better win ratio in recent encounters. Casa Pia’s away performance has been inconsistent.
  • No significant injuries reported for either side that would materially affect starting lineups or tactical approach.
  • The match is played at Arouca's home ground, giving them a home advantage. No weather or external disruptions noted.
  • Arouca aims to consolidate their strong position in the mid-table and chase European spots, while Casa Pia is motivated to escape the relegation zone and get their first wins.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -103, away: 290, draw: 230 Home Win ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread home_minus_50: -102, away_plus_50: -118 Home -0.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under over_2.25: -110, under_2.25: -110 Under 2.25 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Arouca 134%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.25 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Arouca at 134% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 46.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Arouca to win on the moneyline, cover the -0.5 spread, and the match to finish under 2.25 goals.

Predicted Score: 1-0


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Arouca vs. Casa Pia Prediction

Match Analysis: Arouca vs Casa Pia – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-09-14 Time: 5:00 PM UTC Location: Estadio Municipal de Arouca Game Overview Arouca hosts Casa Pia in the Portugal Primeira Liga at Estadio Municipal de Arouca. Arouca holds a mid-table position with stable recent performance, while Casa Pia struggles near relegation. The game is […]

Arouca Casa Pia September 14, 2025 Soccer

MORE FROM PRIMEIRA-LIGA

Vitória SC vs. Santa Clara Prediction Primeira Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Vitória SC vs Santa Clara – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-04
  • Time: 7:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Game Overview

Vitória SC hosts Santa Clara in a Portugal Primeira Liga clash where Vitória SC has historically dominated the matchup, especially at home.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Vitória SC currently shows mixed form but is undefeated at home this season. Santa Clara also displays mixed form with only one away win so far.
  • Vitória SC has won 9 of the last 16 encounters against Santa Clara, including strong performances at home. Recent matches suggest low scoring with under 2.5 goals common.
  • No specific injury data available; assume both sides have typical squad availability.
  • The match is at Vitória SC’s home stadium, which is an advantage given their undefeated home streak.
  • Vitória SC likely motivated to maintain strong home form and improve league standing, while Santa Clara aims to overcome struggles on the road.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline 136 Vitória SC ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread 102 Vitória SC -0.25 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under -125 / 105 Under 1.75 ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Vitória SC 32%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.75 27%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Vitória SC at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vitória SC to win on the moneyline, Vitória SC -0.25 on the spread, and under 1.75 goals total.

Predicted Score: 1-0


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AVS Futebol SAD vs. Alverca Prediction Primeira Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: AVS Futebol SAD vs Alverca – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-04
  • Time: 5:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio do CD Aves, Vila das Aves

Game Overview

AVS Futebol SAD, currently at the bottom of the Primeira Liga table without a win this season, faces FC Alverca, who are hovering just above the relegation zone. This match is crucial for both teams as they seek to improve their league positions.

Key Factors to Consider

  • AVS Futebol SAD has struggled significantly, losing all their home matches and scoring only four goals in seven games, while conceding seventeen. Alverca has shown mixed form but secured a notable win against Vitória Guimarães.
  • Limited recent head-to-head data available, but Alverca's recent performance suggests they have an edge.
  • No significant injury updates available.
  • Given the high stakes and AVS's poor home record, external pressure may influence the match.
  • Both teams are highly motivated to secure points, but Alverca's recent form and confidence from their last win might give them an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Alverca: +155, AVS Futebol SAD: +185, Draw: +212 Alverca to win ★★★☆☆ 63%
Spread Alverca: 0 -122, AVS Futebol SAD: 0 102 Alverca to cover the spread ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over: 2 -130, Under: 2 110 Under 2 goals ★★★☆☆ 59%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Alverca 48%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2 30%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Alverca at 48% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alverca to win

Predicted Score: 0-1


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Nacional vs. Moreirense FC Prediction Primeira Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Nacional vs Moreirense FC – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-04
  • Time: 2:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio da Madeira

Game Overview

CD Nacional hosts Moreirense FC in a Primeira Liga match where Nacional struggles at home (no wins in 3 matches) and Moreirense are higher in the standings in 4th place with strong overall form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Nacional is 13th with 7 points from 7 matches, 2-1-4 record, with poor home form losing all 3 home games conceding 8 goals. Moreirense sits 4th with 15 points, 5 wins and 2 losses, scoring more goals and boasting better overall form.
  • Last meeting ended in a draw. Historically, matches tend to be close and low scoring, with both teams prioritizing defense in recent encounters.
  • No specific injury reports available from data; assume typical squad availability with no major absences reported.
  • Nacional has home advantage but their defensive frailty at home tempers this. Moreirense's away performance is solid though slightly less potent than at home.
  • Moreirense motivated to consolidate top-table position while Nacional aims to escape relegation zone and improve home form; high motivation on both sides but differential favors Moreirense.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: +135, draw: +210, away: +215 Draw ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread home_-0.25: +102, away_+25: -122 Away +0.25 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under over_2.25: +102, under_2.25: -122 Under 2.25 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Draw 24%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.25 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Draw at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Draw

Predicted Score: 1-1


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Gil Vicente vs. CF Estrela Prediction Primeira Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Gil Vicente vs CF Estrela – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-04
  • Time: 2:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Game Overview

Gil Vicente, sitting 5th in the league, hosts struggling CF Estrela, who are near the bottom with just 7 points. Gil Vicente has recently begun to stabilize results after a period of inconsistency, while Estrela Amadora has shown little attacking threat and defensive fragility on the road. The historical matchup is close, but Gil Vicente’s home advantage and current form could prove decisive.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Gil Vicente averages 1 goal scored and 1.52 conceded per game, showing inconsistency, but has collected 13 points to Estrela’s 7. Estrela Amadora averages just 0.83 goals scored and concedes 1.46 per game, with frequent goal droughts (11 failures to score in 24 games). Recent matches show Gil Vicente with 2 wins in last 5, Estrela 1 win in last 5. Gil Vicente has a better recent record in terms of points and clean sheets[1][2].
  • Direct H2H record is very close: last 8 meetings (all competitions since 2003) show 2 wins each, 4 draws[3]. However, in their last three meetings (since 2024), Gil Vicente won 1-0 at home, lost 0-1 away, and drew 1-1 at home[4]. Recent clashes suggest home advantage is meaningful, but away wins are still possible. Over 75% of these games have seen under 2.25 goals[3].
  • No major injury news reported for either side. Both teams have played with regular lineups recently.
  • No significant external factors (weather, travel, etc.) identified. Crowd support likely favors Gil Vicente at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
  • Gil Vicente is chasing a European spot with a chance to solidify their position. Estrela Amadora is fighting relegation, but their poor form and lack of potency away from home are major concerns. Motivation exists for both, but Estrela's recent performances suggest limited upside.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gil Vicente -146 | Estrela 415 | Draw 265 Gil Vicente ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Gil Vicente -0.75 -110 | Estrela +75 -110 Gil Vicente -0.75 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.25 100 | Under 2.25 -120 Under 2.25 ★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Gil Vicente -12%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.25 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gil Vicente to continue their upward trend at home, leveraging their better squad depth and stronger recent results. Expect another low-scoring affair: under 2.25 goals is likely; any clear winner is likely to be Gil Vicente, though a draw is possible if Estrela defends resolutely.

Predicted Score: 1-0


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Casa Pia vs. Estoril Prediction Primeira Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Casa Pia vs Estoril – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-03
  • Time: 7:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Game Overview

Casa Pia hosts Estoril in a crucial bottom-table clash of Portugal's Primeira Liga. Both teams have struggled in the early season, with Casa Pia just marginally ahead in league position and points. The match presents a balanced but tense contest as both sides seek their first upturn in form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Casa Pia holds 7 points from 7 games (2W, 1D, 4L), showing better home form, while Estoril only has 5 points (1W, 2D, 4L). Both teams display defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistency.
  • Recent H2H favors Estoril slightly with 6 wins to Casa Pia's 1 in the last 10, but recent matches have been close including draws, indicating competitiveness.
  • No significant injury updates available for either side suggesting full squads likely.
  • The neutral venue of Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior reduces typical home advantage but Casa Pia’s better fan support and familiarity might aid them.
  • With both clubs near the relegation zone, the motivation is high to secure points. Casa Pia's slight points edge and home advantage increase their urgency.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Casa Pia +152, Estoril +180, Draw +220 Casa Pia ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Casa Pia 0 -125, Estoril 0 +105 Casa Pia 0 Spread ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over 2.25 -108, Under 2.25 -112 Over 2.25 Goals ★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Casa Pia 8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.25 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Casa Pia at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Casa Pia Moneyline Win

Predicted Score: 2-1


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Arouca vs. FC Porto Prediction Primeira Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Arouca vs FC Porto – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-29
  • Time: 7:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Game Overview

FC Porto enters the match as dominant league leaders with an unblemished record, while Arouca has mixed form but recently gained confidence with an away win. Porto's strong offense and defense contrast with Arouca’s inconsistent home results.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Porto has 6 wins in 6 matches this season scoring 15 goals and conceding only 1, holding first place. Arouca sits 10th with an 8-point tally from 6 games, showing inconsistent home form with 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss.
  • In the last 10 matches since 2017, Porto won 8 times against Arouca, who has only 1 victory. Porto has dominated recent encounters with big wins including 4-0 and 5-1 results.
  • Arouca reportedly has a fully fit squad for this fixture. No significant injury concerns have been noted for either team.
  • The match is at Arouca’s home ground, which may offer them slight advantage, but Porto’s superior quality lessens this impact.
  • Porto aims to maintain their 100% winning streak and top league position. Arouca seeks to build on their last away win and improve home results, showing motivation but with lower leverage.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Arouca: +725, FC Porto: -290, Draw: +395 FC Porto ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Arouca +1.25: +100, FC Porto -1.25: -120 FC Porto -1.25 ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under Over 2.75: -105, Under 2.75: -115 Over 2.75 goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline FC Porto 1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.75 17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

FC Porto to win the match

Predicted Score: FC Porto 3 – 1 Arouca


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Famalicão vs. Rio Ave FC Prediction Primeira Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Famalicão vs Rio Ave FC – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-28
  • Time: 7:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Game Overview

Famalicão, currently 6th in the Portugal Primeira Liga with 11 points, faces Rio Ave FC, 14th with 4 points and no wins yet. Famalicão has shown stronger form overall, creating a favorite scenario at home.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Famalicão has 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 6 matches, scoring more and conceding fewer goals than Rio Ave who remains winless with 4 draws and 2 losses, showing defensive frailty.
  • Recent H2H trends favour Famalicão with better outcomes and home advantage, having a positive goal difference against Rio Ave.
  • No critical injuries reported for Famalicão or Rio Ave significantly impacting starting lineups ahead of the match.
  • Match is held at Famalicão's home ground, Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, giving a slight home edge; no adverse weather or travel issues reported for either team.
  • Famalicão aims to maintain top-half positioning early in the season, while Rio Ave struggles to gain momentum, increasing the motivation for a home win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -130, draw: +260, away: +350 Home ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread home_-0.75: +102, away_+75: -122 Home -0.75 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under over_2.5: -102, under_2.5: -118 Under 2.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Famalicão 170%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Famalicão at 170% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 48.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Famalicão to win on the moneyline with a strong likelihood of under 2.5 total goals, given Famalicão's solid defense and Rio Ave's low scoring tendency.

Predicted Score: 1-0


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Braga vs. Nacional Prediction Primeira Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Braga vs Nacional – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-28
  • Time: 5:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga

Game Overview

Braga hosts Nacional in the Portuguese Primeira Liga needing to end a four-game winless streak in the league but buoyed by a recent Europa League win, while Nacional struggles near the relegation zone with limited offensive threat.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Braga sits 7th with 9 points in 6 matches, recently challenged domestically but confident from Europe; Nacional is 16th with 4 points and poor away form.
  • Braga has a recent home win against Nacional, showing dominance in direct encounters.
  • Braga's Fran Navarro likely returning, key defender Jonatas Noro still injured; Nacional missing midfielder Matheus Dias due to suspension.
  • The match is played at Braga's home ground, which is known to favor the hosts.
  • Braga motivated to rebound from league struggles and consolidate mid-table, Nacional pressured by relegation fight and recent losses.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -250, away: 650, draw: 360 Braga ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Braga: -105, Nacional: -115 Braga -1.25 ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under over: 102, under: -122 Under 2.75 ★★★☆☆ 67%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Braga -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.75 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Braga to win moneyline, Braga to cover -1.25 spread, Under 2.75 goals

Predicted Score: 2-0


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Alverca vs. Vitória SC Prediction Primeira Liga in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Alverca vs Vitória SC – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-28
  • Time: 2:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Alverca Home Stadium

Game Overview

Alverca, currently struggling near the lower end of the Primeira Liga standings, hosts Vitória SC, a mid-table side showing more stability and recent success. Vitória SC is favored in the moneyline and spread markets with odds suggesting confidence in an away win or at least avoiding defeat.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Alverca has only 4 points from 6 matches with a -5 goal difference, indicating poor form and struggles in defense. Vitória SC has 8 points from 6 matches and a slightly negative goal difference but better consistency overall.
  • No previous top-flight meetings or direct H2H data between Alverca and Vitória SC are available, so no psychological or historical advantage is evident.
  • No major injury information available, suggesting both teams are relatively close to full strength.
  • No noted external factors affecting the game such as weather or travel strain; the match is played at Alverca’s home ground.
  • Alverca faces pressure to improve from its relegation-threatened position, while Vitória SC aims to consolidate mid-table security and push for European qualification spots.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Alverca: +220, Vitória SC: +124, Draw: +225 Vitória SC ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Alverca +25: -115, Vitória SC -0.25: -105 Vitória SC -0.25 ★★★☆☆ 63%
Over/under Over 2.25: -108, Under 2.25: -112 Under 2.25 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Vitória SC 23%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.25 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Vitória SC at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vitória SC to win on the moneyline, Vitória SC -0.25 on the spread, and Under 2.25 goals

Predicted Score: 0-1


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