Match Analysis: Alverca vs Rio Ave FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: Alverca Home Ground
Game Overview
Alverca hosts Rio Ave FC in a Portugal Primeira Liga match where both teams are struggling to find form, with Alverca especially poor in defense at home and Rio Ave showing moderate recent performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alverca has won no matches in four league games, scoring 2 goals and conceding 7, with particularly weak home defense (5 goals conceded in 2 matches). Rio Ave has also failed to win but has a slightly better attack and defense ratio in away matches.
- Limited recent data indicates no wins for either side with at least one draw; Rio Ave has historically edged these encounters slightly but does not dominate decisively.
- No specific injury data available for either team; no major absences reported, which suggests lineups should be near full strength.
- The match is at Alverca's home ground; no unusual external conditions or disruptions noted. Betting odds suggest a close match with slight home favoritism.
- Both teams are motivated to secure points early in the season to avoid relegation threats; Rio Ave may have marginally higher motivation given recent draws and competitive performances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alverca: +127, Rio Ave FC: +220, Draw: +220 | Alverca | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Alverca -0.25: -105, Rio Ave +25: -115 | Alverca -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -110, Under 2.25: -110 | Over 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alverca 18% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alverca at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Alverca win; Spread: Alverca -0.25; Over/Under: Over 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 2-1