Match Analysis: Alavés vs Valencia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-14
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
Game Overview
This La Liga match features Alavés hosting Valencia at the Estadio de Mendizorroza. Alavés currently occupies 17th position, struggling near the relegation zone, while Valencia are placed 10th with a more stable mid-table standing. Both teams have been inconsistent, but Alavés have shown resilience at home with recent draws and a narrow win. Valencia have had mixed results but generally have a stronger squad depth.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alavés have recorded recent results including a 1-0 home win against Real Sociedad and draws against Sevilla and Atletico Madrid, indicating a tough defensive side but limited goal scoring. Valencia have struggled for consistency with draws against Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla, though they have a slight edge in offensive capabilities and squad quality.
- This season, Deportivo Alavés and Valencia have met once prior, with Valencia maintaining a slight historical advantage. The teams are competitive but games tend to be close with limited goal margins.
- No major injury updates currently available for either side, suggesting both teams will likely field close to their strongest line-ups.
- Playing at home is a slight advantage for Alavés, especially as they fight to avoid relegation. Weather conditions and pitch should be standard for May in Spain, unlikely to impact gameplay significantly.
- Alavés are strongly motivated to secure points to avoid relegation, which may translate into a more defensive and cautious approach. Valencia, with mid-table security, may look to play more offensively but could rest key players for future fixtures.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Alavés: 1.2, Valencia: 2.6, Draw: 2.2 | Alavés win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Alavés -0.25: -118, Valencia +25: -102 | Alavés -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: 1.05, Under 2.25: -1.25 | Under 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Alavés 21% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 26% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A closely contested match with a slight edge to Alavés due to home advantage and higher motivation to gain points. Expect a low-scoring game with tight defense from both sides.
Predicted Score: 1-0