Match Analysis: Alavés vs Atlético Madrid – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
Game Overview
Atlético Madrid are favorites facing Alavés away in a La Liga clash. Alavés have a mixed recent home record against Atlético, who have shown stronger overall dominance historically. The match is expected to be competitive with an emphasis on Atlético’s defensive solidity and Alavés’ struggle to score consistently at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atlético Madrid have a solid starting season with good form; Alavés have mixed results at home and tend to struggle against top sides.
- Historically, Atlético Madrid lead overall with 13 wins out of 23 meetings; at home, Alavés have 5 wins out of 11 meetings against Atlético. Most common scorelines have been low scoring 2-0 or 0-1.
- No explicit injury data available in current sources; assume near full squads but Atlético Madrid likely has deeper rotation options.
- No adverse weather or external issues reported; venue is Atlético-friendly neutral with a slightly favorable crowd effect for home side Alavés.
- Atlético Madrid likely more motivated to start the La Liga campaign strongly to establish title credentials; Alavés focused on home points but under pressure vs stronger opponents.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Alavés: +365, Atlético Madrid: -125, Draw: +255 | Atlético Madrid | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Alavés +50: +105, Atlético Madrid -0.5: -125 | Atlético Madrid -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -110, Under 2.25: -110 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Atlético Madrid 12% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atlético Madrid moneyline win
Predicted Score: 0-1