Match Analysis: Ajax vs Excelsior – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 5:45 PM UTC
- Location: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Game Overview
Ajax hosts Excelsior in the Netherlands Eredivisie at the Johan Cruijff Arena. Ajax, currently 4th in the table with 20 points, aims to improve inconsistency in home form, while Excelsior, 16th with 10 points, struggles for points but seeks a historic first win in Amsterdam. Ajax has a significant quality advantage and better offensive stats, but recent injury concerns and coaching instability create some uncertainty.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ajax has 5 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses in 12 league matches with a +5 goal difference, showing some home form weakness recently. Excelsior has a poorer record with only 3 wins, 1 draw, and 8 losses, a -GD, but has gained 4 points in the past 5 matches compared to Ajaxβs 5, indicating slight recent improvement.
- Ajax has dominated past encounters, including big scorelines like 7-1 and 4-1 victories over Excelsior in recent seasons. No recorded Excelsior victory in Amsterdam historically, with Ajax strongly favored based on historical precedence.
- Ajax faces doubts over Branco van den Boomen (back injury) and Kasper Dolberg (stomach), with other players like Owen Wijndal and Youri Regeer still recovering from injuries as of late October. Excelsior injury details are less prominent, posing less concern here.
- Ajax currently operates under interim coach Fred Grim due to Erik ten Hag's refusal to return, adding some instability. Excelsior is desperate to climb out of relegation zone which could motivate a strong underdog performance. Playing at home in Johan Cruijff Arena offers Ajax a strong home advantage despite recent dips.
- Ajax aims to maintain top-four status and return to winning ways after mixed results. Excelsior wants to secure a historic first win in Amsterdam to boost morale and league position, but the gap in quality and form favors Ajax.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ajax: -285, Excelsior: 600, Draw: 450 | Ajax win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Ajax -1.5: 102, Excelsior +1.5: -122 | Ajax covers -1.5 spread | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 3.25: -118, Under 3.25: -102 | Over 3.25 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ajax -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3.25 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3.25 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ajax win with a competitive scoreline, likely 2-1 given Excelsiorβs recent resilience but overall Ajax superiority.
Predicted Score: 2-1