Match Analysis: AC Milan vs AS Roma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Game Overview
AC Milan host AS Roma in a key Serie A clash. Milan enjoy a modest home table advantage, while Roma have a stellar away record. The match pits Milan's solid form at home against Roma's best-attested road record in the league. Recent encounters between the two have been tight and decisive, and key personnel are in form or set for debuts, adding further intrigue.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milan are unbeaten in their last 9 matches and sit just above Roma in the table, but Roma have won all 4 away matches this season (12 points, +4 GD), making them the best away team in Serie A so far[1]. Milan average 1.6 goals per match and have kept 5 clean sheets, but Roma have not lost in their last 5 matches and have been even more clinical on the road[1][3].
- While Milan have a narrow edge in the overall historical record, recent games have been close: Milan won both last seasonβs Serie A match and the Coppa Italia quarterfinal 3-1, but the prior match ended 1-1[2][6]. There have been no draws in either sideβs last five home or away matches, and none of the last five Milan home fixtures have exceeded 3.5 goals[1].
- No major new injuries reported in available previews; both teams appear to have most regulars available, but always check late team news for any last-minute absences.
- Both sides are in good health and form, with no significant disruptions. Playing at San Siro gives Milan a slight edge, but Romaβs away form is a major counterweight.
- Both teams are chasing European places and in great rhythm, making this a high-stakes match with both likely to go all-out for three points.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AC Milan +102, AS Roma +300, Draw +225 | AS Roma to win | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | AC Milan -0.5 +102, AS Roma +50 -122 | AS Roma +0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 -112, Under 2.25 -108 | Under 2.25 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Roma 80% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: AS Roma at 80% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A closely fought encounter with Roma's imperious away form and Milan's home solidity pointing toward a low-scoring, tense matchup with both teams in the hunt for a narrow win. Draw is least likely based on recent trends.
Predicted Score: AS Roma 1-0 AC Milan