Match Analysis: Parma vs Atalanta BC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 4:30 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini
Game Overview
Parma hosts Atalanta BC in the Serie A second round at a venue where Atalanta has historically dominated. Parma struggled in their season opener, suffering a 0-2 loss with poor possession and offensive output. Atalanta, in contrast, enters with stronger form and better head-to-head record at this venue.
Key Factors to Consider
- Parma lost 0-2 to Juventus in their opener, showing weak possession (36%) and low expected goals (0.62). Atalanta is in good condition, favored by bookmakers and historically successful against Parma away.
- Atalanta leads the recent head-to-head with 9 wins over Parma in 18 home meetings, and a positive goal difference of 28-15 at home. Parma's last away win at Atalanta was in 2014, indicating Atalanta's dominance on their turf.
- Parma will miss Hernani, Jacob Ondrejka, and Matija Frigan due to injuries, weakening their lineup and offensive options. Atalanta reports no major injury concerns.
- Playing at home provides Parma a familiar environment but fan pressure may mount given their poor start. The midweek rest and travel conditions favor Atalanta with better preparation.
- Atalanta is motivated to maintain their superior Serie A position and extend dominance over Parma, while Parma seeks redemption after a discouraging first match.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | 100 | Atalanta BC | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | -0.5 -102 | Atalanta BC -0.5 | β β β β β 74% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 -112 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Atalanta BC 30% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Atalanta BC at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atalanta BC moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-3