Match Analysis: Sydney Roosters vs Wests Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-06
- Time: 4:00 AM UTC
- Location: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Game Overview
The Sydney Roosters will host the Wests Tigers at Allianz Stadium in Round 18 of the 2025 NRL season. The Roosters are currently positioned 6th on the ladder and have a strong winning history against the Tigers, having won 18 of their last 19 encounters. The Tigers, struggling in 14th place with six consecutive losses, are desperate to reverse their fortunes and avoid a fourth consecutive wooden spoon. The match features Roosters missing five Origin players, somewhat balancing the scale as Tigers also miss key players Jarome Luai and Api Koroisau. Expect a highly motivated Tigers team eager for a rare upset and a Roosters side with strong attacking threats including try-scorers Mark Nawaqanitawase and Daniel Tupou.
Key Factors to Consider
- Roosters have a dominant recent record over Tigers and strong attacking form with players like Nawaqanitawase (9 tries in last 7 games) and Tupou (21 tries in 15 games vs Tigers). Tigers have struggled, currently on a six-game losing streak, but have some attacking threats such as Starford Toβa and Sunia Turuva with multiple recent tries.
- Roosters have won 18 of their past 19 games against the Tigers, indicating a significant historical advantage.
- Roosters missing five players due to Origin duties and absences include Robert Toia, Lindsay Collins, Connor Watson, Angus Crichton, Siua Wong, and Spencer Leniu. Tigers missing key players Jarome Luai (NSW Origin) and Api Koroisau (concussion).
- The game is at Allianz Stadium with a large crowd expected for a double-header day including NRLW and AFL matches, potentially boosting home team morale. The Roosters are also celebrating the 50th anniversary of their 1975 premiership, adding to the occasion atmosphere.
- The Tigers are highly motivated to avoid the wooden spoon and end their losing streak. The Roosters aim to consolidate a finals position and capitalize on Tigers' form slump despite missing Origin players.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sydney Roosters: -420, Wests Tigers: 315, Draw: 2500 | Sydney Roosters win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Sydney Roosters: -13.5 -115, Wests Tigers: 13.5 -115 | Sydney Roosters -13.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 49.5 -120, Under: 49.5 -110 | Under 49.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sydney Roosters -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sydney Roosters are predicted to win by a comfortable margin due to superior form, dominant historical record, and home advantage. However, Tigers may keep the margin competitive due to their motivation and some attacking talent.
Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 28 – 12 Wests Tigers