Match Analysis: New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-25
- Time: 6:05 AM UTC
- Location: Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland, New Zealand
Game Overview
The 2025 NRL clash between the New Zealand Warriors and Canberra Raiders features two top-table sides battling in a key round 12 match. The Warriors, playing at home, are slightly favored with strong recent form and key players returning from injury, while the Raiders remain competitive with solid performances throughout the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Warriors have shown strong form in recent matches with a balanced attack and improved defense. Canberra Raiders have been consistent but occasionally vulnerable defensively. The Warriors benefit from the return of Jackson Ford (concussion) and Bunty Afoa (knee), although Mitch Barnett (NSW camp) and James Fisher-Harris (suspension) are out, affecting forward pack depth.
- Historically, recent encounters between these teams have been closely contested. The predictive model by Stats Insider estimates the Warriors have a 66% chance to defeat the Raiders, highlighting a home advantage and form edge. Betting odds generally support a slight Warriors favorite position.
- Key absences for the Warriors include Mitch Barnett and James Fisher-Harris due to NSW camp and suspension, respectively. Jackson Ford and Bunty Afoa return from injury, strengthening the Warriors lineup. Specific injury details for the Raiders were not noted, suggesting a relatively stable squad.
- The venue being Mt Smart Stadium gives the Warriors home advantage. Weather conditions and travel fatigue for the Raiders (traveling from Canberra) may also slightly influence the game dynamics.
- Both teams are near the top of the table, implying high motivation to secure points. The Warriors aim to consolidate their position with a home win, while the Raiders seek to upset and gain ground in the standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Canberra Raiders: 116, New Zealand Warriors: -130, Draw: 2000 | New Zealand Warriors | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Canberra Raiders: 1.5 -110, New Zealand Warriors: -1.5 -120 | New Zealand Warriors -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 | Under 44.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Zealand Warriors 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 44.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Zealand Warriors win
Predicted Score: Warriors 24 – Raiders 18