Match Analysis: Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-29
- Time: 10:00 AM UTC
- Location: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Game Overview
The upcoming NRL Round 26 clash between Melbourne Storm and Sydney Roosters is a critical late-season match at AAMI Park, pivotal for Melbourne's push for the minor premiership and the Roosters’ quest to solidify a top-eight finish. Melbourne sits 2nd on the ladder, while the Roosters occupy 8th, needing a strong performance especially after recent disruptions including the loss of key halfback Sam Walker to concussion. The match marks coach Craig Bellamy's 600th game milestone, adding sentimental significance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Melbourne Storm have been dominant recently, winning their last seven head-to-head matches against the Roosters and securing a top-two ladder finish. They have shown adaptability with key players rested and replacements stepping up effectively. The Roosters have been inconsistent at AAMI Park, winning only 4 of their last 14 games there and struggling without Sam Walker. Melbourne’s recent form and squad depth provide them a strong advantage.
- Melbourne Storm hold a psychological edge with seven consecutive wins against Sydney Roosters, including a close 34-30 Round 21 victory this season. The Roosters have not won at AAMI Park since Round 24, 2022, and historically struggle to overcome the Storm’s defensive resilience and tactical discipline on home turf.
- Melbourne Storm will be without Harry Grant, Eliesa Katoa, Josh King, Nick Meaney, and Xavier Coates, with some key players rested strategically. The Roosters are missing star halfback Sam Walker due to concussion and also have Blake Steep, Daniel Tupou, Sandon Smith, Taylor Losalu, Toby Rodwell, and Tom Rodwell in the squad, with some returning from injury. The absence of Walker is a significant blow to Roosters’ playmaking.
- Craig Bellamy’s milestone of 600 games as a senior coach could provide motivational uplift for Melbourne Storm. The home venue, AAMI Park, is a fortress for the Storm, making travel and crowd support an advantage. Weather and refereeing have not been noted as concern factors. Game officials include referee Todd Smith and senior review official Liam Kennedy.
- Storm are fighting to secure the minor premiership and maintain top-four positioning for finals advantage, while the Roosters aim to climb into safer finals positioning after mixed recent form. The Storm’s established culture of success and milestone celebrations add motivation, whereas Roosters face pressure to overcome recent setbacks and key player losses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Melbourne Storm: -152, Sydney Roosters: 132, Draw: 2000 | Melbourne Storm to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Melbourne Storm: -2.5 -115, Sydney Roosters: +2.5 -115 | Melbourne Storm -2.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 44.5 -115, Under: 44.5 -115 | Over 44.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Melbourne Storm 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 44.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Melbourne Storm are favored to extend their advantage and secure a home victory, given their superior form, psychological head-to-head dominance, and stronger squad depth despite some resting of key players. Sydney Roosters will struggle to contain Melbourne's structured attack and defend at AAMI Park without their star halfback.
Predicted Score: Melbourne Storm 28 – Sydney Roosters 20