The Melbourne Storm hosts the Parramatta Eels in the opening round of the 2025 NRL season. The Storm seeks to extend its 22-game winning streak in Round 1 matches, while the Eels, under new coach Jason Ryles, aim to upset with a revamped lineup.
Key Factors to Consider
The Storm has a strong recent record, especially in opening rounds. The Eels have a new coach and several debutants, which could affect cohesion.
The Storm has historically dominated the Eels, with the Eels conceding 142 points in their last four meetings.
Mitch Moses is out for the Eels due to a foot injury, while the Storm has a relatively healthy squad with key players returning from minor issues.
The Storm's home advantage at AAMI Park could be significant, given their past success in Round 1 games.
Both teams are highly motivated, but the Storm may have an edge due to their desire to bounce back from last season's grand final loss.
Match Analysis: Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-03-09 Time: 5:05 AM UTC Location: AAMI Park, Melbourne Game Overview The Melbourne Storm hosts the Parramatta Eels in the opening round of the 2025 NRL season. The Storm seeks to extend its 22-game winning streak in Round 1 matches, while the Eels, […]
The 2025 NRL Preliminary Final features the Brisbane Broncos hosting the Penrith Panthers at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams are strong contenders in the Telstra Premiership Finals Series. The Broncos are playing at home with a significant crowd presence, while the Panthers arrive as the favorites given their superior season form and recent results.
Key Factors to Consider
Penrith Panthers have demonstrated consistently strong performances throughout the season, being favorites at most sportsbooks. Brisbane Broncos, although solid, have had a few inconsistent performances but remain dangerous on home ground with the crowd support expected to boost their intensity.
Historically, Penrith Panthers have had the upper hand in recent encounters, including the 2025 season where they have beaten Brisbane in Round 9. However, the Broncos have shown resilience and success playing at Suncorp Stadium, making this a highly competitive matchup.
There are no publicly noted major injuries impacting either team at this time, but close monitoring of half and playmaker positions for Brisbane is advised given the Panthers' noted antagonist threat on these roles.
Event day transport disruptions in Brisbane due to major track closures may impact fan arrival times but stadium capacity and atmosphere remain strong. Weather factors are not indicated to be problematic.
This is a high-stakes Preliminary Final in the NRL 2025 Finals Series, with both teams highly motivated. Broncos aim to leverage home advantage to progress, while Panthers look to capitalize on their season dominance to continue their premiership pursuit.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Penrith Panthers -10%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 49.5 8%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Penrith Panthers are favored to win due to their recent form, superior season performance, and better head-to-head record. However, the Broncos' home ground advantage and motivation in a final maintain the probability of a close contest.
Location: Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, Melbourne, Australia
Game Overview
The Melbourne Storm host the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks in a high-stakes NRL Preliminary Final. Melbourne, the premiership favorites, have a strong home ground advantage at AAMI Park with an elite defensive system and precise attack. Cronulla is capable of scoring and can provide a competitive contest, but breaking through Melbourne's defense is notably challenging.
Key Factors to Consider
Melbourne Storm rank 1 in power rankings with an average attack scoring 9 more points per game than Cronulla, who rank 11. Storm demonstrate superior home form and disciplined gameplay, while Sharks possess notable attacking threats but have struggled against Storm at AAMI Park historically.
Across 49 matches since 1998, Melbourne leads with 31 wins to Cronulla's 18. At Melbourne's home ground AAMI Park, Storm have an overwhelming advantage winning 14 out of 17 encounters, scoring 497 points to Sharks' 199.
No specific injury information available in current data for either team prior to the match.
The match is played at Melbourne's rectangular stadium, where Storm's fortress-like home advantage is significant. Weather or other external forcings are not specified.
Being a preliminary final, both teams are highly motivated, but Melbourne’s experience in big games and status as premiership favorites give them an edge in pressure situations.
The 2025 NRL Finals Week Two match between the Canterbury Bulldogs and Penrith Panthers is a sudden-death semi-final held at the iconic Accor Stadium. Penrith Panthers enter as favorites with a strong recent track record, including a recent premiership win in 2022, while the Bulldogs are building a resilient squad under coach Cameron Ciraldo, highlighted by key players such as Jaeman Salmon.
Key Factors to Consider
Penrith Panthers have demonstrated consistent high performance through the 2025 season and past years, evidenced by their premiership win and strong finals campaign. The Canterbury Bulldogs have shown significant improvement this season, driven by a renewed team culture and key players regaining form, with strong defensive and attacking versatility, but remain underdogs against Penrith.
Historically, Penrith Panthers have had the upper hand against Canterbury Bulldogs in recent matchups, often winning comfortably. However, the Bulldogs have managed to close the gap recently, making the contest competitive especially in finals scenarios.
No specific, critical injuries have been noted for either side as of current reports. Both teams are expected to field their strongest available line-ups for this crucial game.
The match is set to be played in near-optimal weather conditions at Accor Stadium with mostly sunny weather and temperatures between 9 and 22 degrees Celsius. A crowd likely to exceed 70,000 may impact atmosphere and pressure, likely favoring the home-ground Bulldogs to some extent.
The Bulldogs are highly motivated to progress deeper into the finals, with key players like Jaeman Salmon driven by personal history and career resurgence against his former club Penrith. Penrith, as reigning premiers, aim to reinforce their dominance and continue their finals success.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Penrith Panthers -5%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 39.5 12%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 39.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Penrith Panthers are predicted to win due to their superior form, experience in finals, and historical dominance. However, the Bulldogs' resilience and home advantage suggest a competitive match with a moderate margin.
The Week 2 Semi Final of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership features the Canberra Raiders hosting the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks at GIO Stadium in Canberra. Both teams have shown strong form reaching this point in the finals, with Canberra coming off a close loss to Brisbane and Cronulla eliminating Sydney in the previous round. The game is expected to be highly competitive, reflecting the grudge nature of finals clashes.
Key Factors to Consider
Canberra Raiders have won 26 of 52 encounters historically against Cronulla. They narrowly lost their previous match to Brisbane, showing resilience but also some defensive frailty. Cronulla showed strong defensive grit and high completion rates against Sydney, applying pressure and maintaining control. Both teams have bench depth with several players named as reserves.
The historical head-to-head is balanced with Canberra leading 26-26 in wins out of 52 matches. This parity emphasizes the evenly matched nature of this upcoming semi-final clash.
No major injury reports are highlighted in the current sources. Both teams have named several players for the bench and reserves, indicating both squads are close to full strength.
The match is played at Canberra's home ground, GIO Stadium, giving Raiders a familiar environment and home crowd support. Scheduling aspects such as the finals turnaround may slightly affect team preparations but are typical for finals week.
As a knockout semi-final, both teams have strong motivation to secure victory. Cronulla aims to continue their momentum from the elimination final, while Canberra seeks redemption after their recent narrow loss and aims to leverage home advantage.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Canberra Raiders -4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 45.5 3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 45.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match is expected to be a close contest with a slight edge to Canberra Raiders due to home ground advantage and historical parity. The Sydney media and fan opinions indicate Cronulla can be competitive if they maintain high completion and defensive intensity. Prediction favors Canberra by a narrow margin.
The match is a crucial qualifying final in the NRL Telstra Premiership between minor premiers Canberra Raiders and fourth-placed Brisbane Broncos. Canberra has home-ground advantage and has dominated GIO Stadium this season, while Brisbane enters the game with strong recent form, including a vital win against Melbourne Storm. Both teams are nearly evenly matched in attack and defense, setting the stage for a high-intensity, close, and potentially high-scoring game, with a possible deadlock pushing the game into golden point overtime.
Key Factors to Consider
Canberra Raiders have a fortress-like home record, winning 9 of 10 games at GIO Stadium this season, and rested key players last week to bring a fresh lineup. Brisbane Broncos have won 4 of their last 5 games, showcasing strong attacking firepower but have struggled at GIO Stadium historically, losing 4 of their last 5 visits. Canberra's attack focuses on control and resilience while Brisbane relies on explosive offense.
In their only 2025 meeting, Canberra beat Brisbane 32-22 at GIO Stadium in Round 2. Historically, the teams have met 3 times in finals (last in 1995). Their 2025 matchup is tightly poised with near equal power rankings (Raiders 8, Broncos 5) and very close win percentages (Raiders 50.91%, Broncos 49.09%).
Canberra welcomes back 10 members of their first-grade side after resting players in the final regular season round. Broncos captain and halfback Adam Reynolds is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Matty Nicholson is named as 18th man for the Raiders. The Broncos have named an unchanged lineup from their recent win over Melbourne.
The match will be played in freezing Canberra conditions, likely favoring the home side's grinding and resilient style. The game carries huge stakes with a preliminary final spot and a week off on the line. The sold-out crowd at GIO Stadium will bolster the Raiders.
Both teams are highly motivated with a premiership pathway at stake. Canberra seeks to leverage home advantage and end a 31-year premiership drought, while Brisbane aims for a breakthrough after 19 years, fueled by youthful exuberance and momentum from recent wins.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Canberra Raiders -3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 44.5 16%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match is expected to be extremely close, potentially deadlocked after 80 minutes. Given Canberra's home advantage and defensive resilience versus Brisbane's attacking potential and recent form, a narrow victory or golden point extra time outcome is the most probable scenario.
The NRL Finals Week 1 match between the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks and Sydney Roosters is a gripping rematch with high stakes, as the Roosters seek a home semi-final by continuing their undefeated streak while the Sharks aim to rebound from a recent loss and secure a strong finals position. The Roosters enter in impeccable form, having won five of their past six, while the Sharks have also shown strong recent form, notably a 24-6 win over the Bulldogs. The match is set at the Sharks' home ground, adding importance to their performance.
Key Factors to Consider
The Roosters remain undefeated after 10 games, currently sitting 1st and demonstrating dominant attacking form with players like James Tedesco and Mark Nawaqanitawase contributing heavily. The Sharks, in 4th place, have won 7 of their last 8 games post-bye and are buoyed by a decisive victory over the Bulldogs and the return of key playmaker Nicho Hynes, boosting their creativity and chances.
Historically, the Roosters have won all three recent encounters against the Sharks, including last year’s grand final where the Roosters jumped to a strong 24-0 lead despite a strong comeback from the Sharks. The Sharks outscored the Roosters 28-8 in the grand final's second half but fell short overall. In their last meeting this season at Sharks Stadium, the Sharks won 31-18, showing improvement in their head-to-head competitiveness.
The Sharks have key players back including Nicho Hynes who was cleared to play after a downgraded charge, giving them a significant playmaking edge. The Roosters are fielding the same squad from Round 27, indicating no major injury concerns and full strength.
The match venue at Sharks Stadium favors the home team, though the Roosters have experience playing under high finals pressure and momentum from a strong winning streak. Weather and referee details are not suggestive of any game-impacting conditions.
The Sharks have strong motivation to redeem themselves after a prior loss and have recently been on a winning run, aiming to defend home advantage. The Roosters are motivated to maintain their undefeated season momentum and secure a home semi-final, adding intensity to their gameplay.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: 118, Sydney Roosters: -132, Draw: 1800
Sydney Roosters win
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: 2.5 -115, Sydney Roosters: -2.5 -115
Sydney Roosters -2.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 45.5: -115, Under 45.5: -115
Under 45.5 points
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Sydney Roosters -10%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 45.5 12%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 45.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sydney Roosters are favored to win given their undefeated season, head-to-head dominance, and current momentum, but the Sharks' home advantage and recent strong form make this a closely contested match with potential for an upset.
Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 24 – 20 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
The New Zealand Warriors and Penrith Panthers meet in a Week 1 finals elimination match at Go Media Stadium. The Warriors finished 6th and the Panthers 7th in the regular season. The Panthers come off a strong finish to climb into 7th place and are four-time defending premiers aiming for a fifth consecutive title. The Warriors had a late-season dip but have historically performed well in home finals. This match is a knockout game with high intensity and stakes.
Key Factors to Consider
Penrith Panthers have won 9 of their last 10 matches against the Warriors and have an impressive finals record, winning their last 12 finals games. The Warriors have struggled against top eight teams recently, with no wins since Round 14. However, Warriors centre Adam Pompey is in good form, scoring six tries in his last seven games. Penrith secured a 40-20 win in their last regular season match and have key players Brian To'o and Liam Martin returning from rest. The Warriors welcome back Wayde Egan and Jackson Ford from injury and suspension.
Penrith have dominated recent head-to-heads, including a 28-18 win over the Warriors at Go Media Stadium in June 2025. They have also won 9 of their last 10 encounters. The teams have met three times previously in playoffs, with Penrith generally prevailing.
Warriors have Wayde Egan (hip) and Jackson Ford (suspension) returning for this match. Penrith have Brian To'o and Liam Martin back after being rested in Round 27.
The match is being played at the Warriors' home ground in Auckland, which has been favorable for the Warriors in finals history, winning three of four home finals there. Weather and pitch conditions are not noted to be adverse.
Penrith are motivated to continue their unprecedented finals winning streak and defend their four consecutive premierships. The Warriors, hosting their fifth home final in club history, are eager to upset the reigning champions despite recent form dips.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
New Zealand Warriors: 218, Penrith Panthers: -333
Penrith Panthers win
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
New Zealand Warriors: 9.5 -120, Penrith Panthers: -9.5 -120
Penrith Panthers to cover -9.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over: 42.5 -120, Under: 42.5 -120
Under 42.5 points
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Penrith Panthers -15%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 42.5 10%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 42.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Due to Penrith's finals experience, recent dominance over the Warriors, and returning key players, Penrith Panthers are favored to win, but the Warriors' home ground advantage and player returns give them a fighting chance. Expect a competitive, high-intensity match with Penrith edging out a victory.
Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 24 – New Zealand Warriors 14
The qualifying final between Melbourne Storm and Canterbury Bulldogs at AAMI Park is set to be a high-stakes clash between a championship-caliber team and an emerging contender. Melbourne Storm is renowned for their formidable home record and September finals experience, often referred to as having strong 'September DNA'. Canterbury Bulldogs, enjoying a remarkable resurgence, bring momentum and a fearless mindset into this match. The game is anticipated to be a tight contest, possibly decided by a narrow margin with balanced moderate scoring expected.
Key Factors to Consider
Melbourne Storm currently holds the top power ranking (1) with precision attack and structured defense, peaking in form heading into finals. Canterbury Bulldogs rank 6th, exhibiting an enthusiastic and improvisational attacking style and have been surging in form, showcasing strong improvement and momentum in the season.
Historically, Melbourne Storm holds an advantage, especially at home with a strong finals record against Canterbury. The matchups show Storm's systematic excellence versus Bulldogs’ spirited revival, suggesting a competitive but slightly favored edge for Melbourne.
No specific injury data was provided in the sources; therefore, assuming both teams have their key players available for this crucial finals encounter.
Playing at Storm’s home venue AAMI Park gives Melbourne a significant advantage. The finals environment and the pressure of knockout football may influence performance; Melbourne's experience in high-pressure September games is a key factor.
Melbourne Storm is highly motivated to leverage their finals pedigree and home advantage. Canterbury Bulldogs are motivated by their underdog status and recent resurgence, driven by a ‘nothing-to-lose’ mentality aiming to upset the top-ranked Storm.
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Melbourne Storm -8%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 37.5 -1%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 37.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Melbourne Storm is predicted to win, leveraging home advantage and finals experience, but expect a close game with Canterbury Bulldogs testing them thoroughly.
The Parramatta Eels and Newcastle Knights face off in the final regular season match at CommBank Stadium. Parramatta seeks to extend a strong recent form and home dominance over Newcastle, who aim to send their coach Adam O'Brien off with a win. The game is projected to be a physical, defensive battle with limited scoring, reflecting both teams' struggles with consistency and offensive fluency.
Key Factors to Consider
Parramatta has won seven of the last eight meetings against Newcastle, showcasing home advantage and recent momentum with four wins in their last six games, including against competitive sides. Newcastle, although positioned 16th, has shown defensive resilience but has conceded 176 points in their last four games, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
Eels lead the recent head-to-head record convincingly, winning seven of the last eight encounters. Newcastle has not won at CommBank Stadium since 2020, further consolidating the Eels' home advantage.
No specific current injuries detailed in the references; however, Eels captain and key playmaker Mitchell Moses is fit and has been impactful against the Knights recently.
This final is played in front of a motivated crowd at CommBank Stadium with member appreciation events boosting home support. Newcastle aims to honor their departing coach Adam O'Brien, adding emotional motivation.
Parramatta aims to build momentum heading into the finals, while Newcastle fights to secure a morale-boosting sendoff for their coach. Both teams have high incentives to perform, though Parramatta's recent form and home ground advantage give them a psychological edge.
Parramatta Eels to cover a smaller margin than 13.5 points
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 51.5: -125, Under 51.5: -105
Under 51.5 points
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Parramatta Eels -10%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 51.5 37%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Parramatta Eels are favored to win a tight, defensively dominated match with an expected low scoring outcome, likely decided by a margin of 4-7 points.
