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Canberra Raiders vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-05
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: GIO Stadium Canberra, Canberra, Australia

Game Overview

The Round 18 NRL match features the Canberra Raiders hosting the St George Illawarra Dragons at GIO Stadium Canberra. The Raiders have home advantage and will look to leverage strong recent form and local support. The Dragons, traveling to Canberra, aim to overcome the odds as underdogs in this contest. Both teams have experienced mixed results this season, making the game an intriguing competitive fixture.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canberra Raiders have demonstrated solid performances at home in the 2025 season and have a more consistent win record compared to the Dragons. The Dragons have struggled on the road this season, which could impact their competitiveness in this match.
  • Recent head-to-head meetings favor the Canberra Raiders, who have won a majority of the recent encounters against the Dragons, especially at home. This history provides Canberra a psychological edge.
  • Latest injury reports suggest minor setbacks for both teams but no major absences that could drastically alter team dynamics. However, close attention to final team sheets is recommended closer to kick-off.
  • Home crowd support at GIO Stadium and familiarity with local conditions benefit Canberra. Weather forecasts predict typical Canberra winter conditions, unlikely to greatly disrupt play.
  • Canberra Raiders have strong motivation to consolidate their position in the league rankings before finals, while the Dragons aim to improve their season standing. The Raiders' home advantage likely adds an extra motivational boost.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -360, away: 270, draw: 2500 Canberra Raiders win ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread home: -11.5 -115, away: 11.5 -115 Canberra Raiders to cover the -11.5 spread ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under over: 46.5 -145, under: 46.5 110 Under 46.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canberra Raiders -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 26%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Taking into account home advantage, recent form, and head-to-head dominance, Canberra Raiders are favored to secure a win against St George Illawarra Dragons with a confident margin.

Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 28 – 14 St George Illawarra Dragons


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Canberra Raiders vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction

Match Analysis: Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-07-05 Time: 7:30 AM UTC Location: GIO Stadium Canberra, Canberra, Australia Game Overview The Round 18 NRL match features the Canberra Raiders hosting the St George Illawarra Dragons at GIO Stadium Canberra. The Raiders have home advantage and will look to […]

Canberra Raiders July 5, 2025 Rugbyleague St George Illawarra Dragons

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North Queensland Cowboys vs. Melbourne Storm Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-05
  • Time: 9:35 AM UTC
  • Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Game Overview

The upcoming NRL match between North Queensland Cowboys and Melbourne Storm is a clash between a historically dominant Melbourne Storm and a competitively improving Cowboys side. Melbourne Storm have a strong overall head-to-head record against the Cowboys and have been the more consistent team in recent years. The match is set to be played at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, where the Cowboys have shown strong home form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Melbourne Storm have won 33 out of 46 matches historically against the Cowboys, including 17 of 21 home matches and 7 of 9 matches at AAMI Park. Their recent form includes a decisive 38-14 victory over the Cowboys on June 6, 2025. The Cowboys have had some solid performances at home, winning 3 out of 4 matches at Queensland Country Bank Stadium against the Storm, showing resilience on their turf. Overall, Storm dominate in point scoring (1120 vs 835) across head-to-head games.
  • The Melbourne Storm lead the historic head-to-head with 33 wins out of 46 matches vs the Cowboys' 13 wins since 1998. At Queensland Country Bank Stadium, the Cowboys lead 3-1 in recent matches, indicating stronger home advantage. Melbourne Storm have a longer winning streak (12 games) compared to the Cowboys' best streak of 3 against them.
  • No specific injury information was provided in the available data for either team for this match, suggesting both teams may be close to full strength.
  • Playing at home for the Cowboys generally boosts their performance, especially at Queensland Country Bank Stadium where they have won 3 of the last 4 matches against Melbourne Storm. Travel fatigue and scheduling could be minor factors but with a week gap from the last meeting, both teams should be physically prepared.
  • Melbourne Storm will aim to maintain their dominance over the Cowboys, especially after a recent big win. The Cowboys have motivation to defend their home ground and respond after the recent heavy defeat. Both teams have strong competitive drive given the significance of this fixture in the 2025 NRL season.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Melbourne Storm: -335, North Queensland Cowboys: 265, Draw: 2300 Melbourne Storm win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Melbourne Storm -10.5: -115, North Queensland Cowboys +10.5: -115 Melbourne Storm to cover -10.5 points ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 49.5: -115, Under 49.5: -115 Over 49.5 points ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Melbourne Storm -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 49.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Melbourne Storm are predicted to win this match owing to their dominant historical record, recent convincing victory, and overall stronger squad performance. However, the home advantage of the Cowboys could keep the scoreline competitive.

Predicted Score: Melbourne Storm 28 – 16 North Queensland Cowboys


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Canterbury Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Broncos Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-04
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Accor Stadium, Sydney, Australia

Game Overview

The Canterbury Bulldogs host the Brisbane Broncos at Accor Stadium in a critical NRL Round 18 clash. The Bulldogs come into the match with some squad changes but retain strong home ground advantage, while the Broncos face key absences in crucial positions.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canterbury Bulldogs have shown resilience with solid team depth, integrating new players such as Blake Wilson and Enari Tuala. Brisbane Broncos, while competitive, are missing significant contributors including Reece Walsh and Payne Haas, which could impact their forward pack and attack dynamics.
  • Historical encounters between these two teams have been competitive, with recent fixtures showing closely fought contests. The teams are relatively evenly matched in past results though the Bulldogs have slight home advantage.
  • Canterbury Bulldogs are without Jacob Kiraz, Stephen Crichton, Max King, Daniel Suluka-Fifita, and Kurt Mann. Brisbane Broncos miss Reece Walsh, Gehamat Shibasaki, Payne Haas, and Patrick Carrigan due to injury.
  • The match takes place at Accor Stadium with expected good conditions, favoring the home side. Crowd support is likely robust for the Bulldogs. No adverse weather or logistical issues reported.
  • Both teams are vying for position in the league standings with the Bulldogs aiming to capitalize on home advantage and Broncos looking to overcome key absences and maintain playoff hopes.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Brisbane Broncos: 166, Canterbury Bulldogs: -197, Draw: 2100 Canterbury Bulldogs win ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Brisbane Broncos: 5.5 -110, Canterbury Bulldogs: -5.5 -120 Canterbury Bulldogs -5.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 42.5: -145, Under 42.5: 110 Under 42.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 42.5 26%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 42.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the injury concerns for Brisbane and strong squad depth for Canterbury, the Bulldogs are favored to win this match with a moderate confidence level relying on home advantage and squad stability.

Predicted Score: Canterbury Bulldogs 24 – 18 Brisbane Broncos


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Gold Coast Titans vs. North Queensland Cowboys Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 6:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Game Overview

The Gold Coast Titans, positioned last on the NRL ladder with only four wins this season, face the North Queensland Cowboys who sit 12th. Both teams come into Round 17 struggling with form and recent heavy losses – the Titans lost 36-20 to the Eels while the Cowboys suffered a 42-8 defeat to the Roosters. The Titans will be looking to recover from inconsistency, while the Cowboys must respond after multiple recent heavy defeats. This Queensland derby is crucial for both sides aiming to arrest their downward trajectories.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Titans have demonstrated fluctuating performances this season, with moments of promise overshadowed by poor results such as the recent loss to the Eels where they also lost Jayden Campbell mid-match due to a head knock. The Cowboys have been struggling defensively, conceding over 30 points in three consecutive matches, including two losses with over 40 points conceded. Both teams face form uncertainties but the Cowboys have a slightly better recent run in terms of standings.
  • Historically, these Queensland rivals have had competitive encounters; however, current season form heavily favors the Cowboys who are higher on the ladder and arguably more stable despite their recent defensive lapses. The Titans have underperformed against top and mid-table teams this season and are seeking to capitalize on home advantage.
  • Key injury impacting the Titans is Jayden Campbell, ruled out mid-game last week with a Category 1 head knock. This forced the inclusion of Tom Weaver into the halves. The Cowboys do not have any notable injury news mentioned but are returning Origin players Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Mo Fotuaika to the Titans bench, which may boost Titans' physicality and morale.
  • The match is at the Titans’ home ground, Cbus Super Stadium, potentially providing a home crowd advantage. Both teams are under pressure due to recent heavy defeats which may affect confidence and motivation. Weather conditions or other external factors have not been specified.
  • Both teams are motivated to reverse poor runs: the Titans to lift themselves off last place and avoid further slide, and the Cowboys to halt defensive collapses and regain competitiveness. The Cowboys coach has publicly demanded improved effort and execution, which suggests strong motivation to respond positively.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gold Coast Titans: 128, North Queensland Cowboys: -143, Draw: 1900 North Queensland Cowboys ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Gold Coast Titans: -4.5 -130, North Queensland Cowboys: +4.5 100 North Queensland Cowboys +4.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 51.5: -115, Under 51.5: -115 Over 51.5 points ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline North Queensland Cowboys -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 51.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite the Titans' home advantage, the North Queensland Cowboys are predicted to win due to their stronger ladder position, recent form signals, and the Titans’ key injury and inconsistency issues. The Cowboys' defensive struggles may make it a high-scoring game, but their overall quality should prevail.

Predicted Score: Cowboys 28 – Titans 22


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Melbourne Storm vs. Cronulla Sutherland Sharks Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sutherland Sharks – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 4:00 AM UTC
  • Location: AAMI Park, Melbourne

Game Overview

The upcoming NRL match between Melbourne Storm and Cronulla Sutherland Sharks is a high-stakes fixture at AAMI Park, with Melbourne as the home team. Historically, Melbourne Storm have dominated this matchup, holding a significant advantage in wins and points scored, especially at home venues like AAMI Park. Cronulla Sharks have been competitive but have fewer victories on Melbourne soil. The match promises intense competition with both teams aiming to assert dominance in the league standings.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Melbourne Storm have a strong home record, winning 19 of 26 matches against Cronulla on home grounds and holding a robust overall head-to-head lead (30 wins to Cronulla's 17). Recent form favors Melbourne with commanding performances at AAMI Park, outscoring Cronulla significantly (467 points to 193) in past home games. Cronulla show resilience and have managed crucial wins but typically struggle away from their home stadium.
  • Overall, Melbourne Storm leads the rivalry with 30 wins from 48 matches since 1998, showcasing dominance especially in home fixtures. Cronulla have 17 wins overall, with a better showing at their home venue but less success when away, particularly at AAMI Park. The Storm have longer winning streaks and higher point tallies in recent history, reinforcing Melbourne as favorites.
  • No specific injury updates are provided from the current data, but the fitness of key players for both sides should be monitored closer to match day for more accurate assessment.
  • Playing at AAMI Park gives Melbourne Storm a significant home advantage including crowd support and familiarity with the venue. Weather conditions and pitch state are not indicated but should be considered as they can affect game tempo and scoring.
  • Melbourne Storm, aiming to maintain their home dominance and climb the league table, likely have strong motivation. Cronulla Sharks, seeking to upset the home favorites and improve their away record, will be highly motivated as well. Historical rivalry adds extra competitive edge to the contest.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Melbourne Storm: -290, Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: 235, Draw: 2300 Melbourne Storm win ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Melbourne Storm: -9.5 -115, Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: +9.5 -115 Melbourne Storm -9.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -115 Over 46.5 points ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Melbourne Storm -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 46.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 46.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Melbourne Storm are favored to win by a clear margin given their dominant home record and historical superiority over Cronulla Sutherland Sharks. Expect a competitive, physical game but with Melbourne controlling the match tempo and scoreboard.

Predicted Score: Melbourne Storm 28 – 16 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks


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Dolphins vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Dolphins vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-28
  • Time: 9:50 AM UTC
  • Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Game Overview

The Dolphins will face the South Sydney Rabbitohs in a Round 17 NRL match at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams are coming off consecutive losses, with the Dolphins sitting 9th on the ladder seeking to rebound and push into the finals, while the Rabbitohs, at 16th, aim to halt a poor run of form. This match carries added intrigue as it features Wayne Bennett coaching the Rabbitohs against his former team, the Dolphins, now led by his protege Kristian Woolf. Weather disruptions earlier in the season led to a venue switch and schedule reshuffle for these clubs. The game is the second of a double-header day at the venue, with fans advised to arrive early due to crowding and security measures.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Dolphins have had a mixed season but remain just outside the top eight, battling to keep finals hopes alive. They recently lost to Newcastle Knights, reflecting some inconsistency. The Rabbitohs have struggled more significantly, with just 17 wins in their last 52 matches and a recent golden point loss to Melbourne showing some promise but ongoing challenges. The Dolphins have adapted well under Kristian Woolf, showing resilience despite injuries, while the Rabbitohs are still rebuilding under Bennett.
  • The two teams met in Round 1, with the Rabbitohs narrowly edging the Dolphins 16-14 in a hard-fought encounter at CommBank Stadium. Historically, the Rabbitohs have had the upper hand, but the Dolphins have been competitive since their introduction to the NRL. The current season’s first match was tightly contested, suggesting another close game is likely.
  • The Dolphins are missing Jack Bostock (ACL injury, season-ending), replaced by Junior Tupou on the wing. The Rabbitohs have been affected by injuries throughout the season but no new significant injury reports ahead of this match have been noted. Both teams are dealing with squad depth challenges but have named strong sides.
  • The match is now held at Suncorp Stadium due to Cyclone Alfred-related rescheduling. The venue is a home ground for the Dolphins, giving them a slight advantage. Two matches on the same day may affect crowd energy and player warmups, but both teams have had similar experience with these conditions. Weather appears stable for the match day.
  • The Dolphins are highly motivated to regain momentum and secure a vital win to bolster their finals chances. Facing their former coach adds an emotional edge. The Rabbitohs, despite a poor season so far, are driven to improve and gain confidence by upsetting a higher-ranked adversary, with key players like Alex Johnston aiming to continue personal milestones.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Dolphins: -162, South Sydney Rabbitohs: 140, Draw: 2100 Dolphins win ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Dolphins -3.5: -115, South Sydney Rabbitohs +3.5: -115 Dolphins to cover -3.5 points ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 49.5: -115, Under 49.5: -115 Under 49.5 points total ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Dolphins -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 49.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Dolphins are favored to win due to home advantage, stronger recent form, and motivation to rebound, but the Rabbitohs will keep it competitive. Expect a closely contested match with the Dolphins prevailing by a narrow margin.

Predicted Score: Dolphins 24 – Rabbitohs 20


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Parramatta Eels Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Parramatta Eels – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-28
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: WIN Stadium, Wollongong, Australia

Game Overview

This NRL Round 17 match features St George Illawarra Dragons hosting Parramatta Eels at WIN Stadium. Both teams have demonstrated competitive form this season, with the Dragons favored to win at home. The game is expected to be closely contested with impactful plays from both sides, making it an exciting fixture for fans and bettors.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Dragons have shown solid home form and consistent performances in recent rounds, while the Eels have been resilient on the road but marginally less consistent overall. St George Illawarra's defense and structured attack have been key strengths, whereas Parramatta's ability to capitalize on turnovers has improved lately.
  • Recent head-to-head meetings have been tight, with some wins shared between both teams. The last five matches show a near even split, including a close 23-22 win for Parramatta earlier in the season. This historical parity suggests the match could be decided by small margins.
  • No major injuries have been publicly disclosed affecting key starters for either team at this time, suggesting both sides can field near-full strength lineups.
  • The match being played at WIN Stadium gives the Dragons a home ground advantage with familiar conditions and fan support. Weather conditions are expected to be typical for Wollongong in late June, without adverse impacts.
  • St George Illawarra is motivated to consolidate their position in the mid-table standings and maintain winning momentum at home. Parramatta Eels aim to climb higher on the ladder and will be motivated by the chance to upset an in-form home team.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Parramatta Eels: 131, St George Illawarra Dragons: -150, Draw: 2000 St George Illawarra Dragons ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Parramatta Eels: 3.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: -3.5 -115 St George Illawarra Dragons -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over: 47.5 -115, Under: 47.5 -115 Under 47.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 47.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the home advantage and slightly better recent consistency, the prediction favors St George Illawarra Dragons to win a close match. Expect a tight contest with defense playing a major role.

Predicted Score: St George Illawarra Dragons 24 – Parramatta Eels 20


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Brisbane Broncos vs. New Zealand Warriors Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-28
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Game Overview

The upcoming NRL match between Brisbane Broncos and New Zealand Warriors is set at Suncorp Stadium with the Broncos looking to extend their winning streak at home, having scored 78 points in back-to-back wins. The Warriors, ranked 4th, are slightly ahead in the table compared to the Broncos in 5th. Both teams have recent success at this venue, with the Warriors having claimed three of their last four games at Suncorp but not defeating the Broncos there since 2018. Key players such as Reece Walsh and Payne Haas are influential for the Broncos, while the Warriors welcome back Kurt Capewell following injury. The match is anticipated to be highly competitive, featuring solid performances and tactical adjustments from both sides.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Broncos have strong momentum, scoring 78 points over their last two home games and successfully overcoming a 16-point deficit against the Sharks recently. Reece Walsh’s return from injury has significantly boosted their attack, and Payne Haas continues to lead their forward pack effectively. The Warriors have won three of their last four games at Suncorp, showing capacity to challenge at this ground, although they have not beaten the Broncos there since 2018. Lineup changes favor the Warriors with Queensland State of Origin star Kurt Capewell returning, and key players like Rocco Berry and Edward Kosi coming back from injury, potentially strengthening their second-row and wings.
  • Historically, the Warriors have struggled to defeat the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium, failing to win there since 2018. However, they have won three of their past four encounters at this venue in recent times, indicating a more competitive edge than in past years. Their last season meetings demonstrated balanced try counts, with Warriors scoring four tries and Broncos three in one match during Round 7 2025.
  • The Warriors are missing Dallin Watene-Zelezniak due to an ankle injury sidelining him for four to six weeks, but have regained Moala Graham-Taufa and welcomed back Kurt Capewell. The Broncos have maintained a consistent lineup with no major changes reported ahead of the match, signaling squad stability. Both teams have deep reserves available on the interchange bench to manage any injuries during the match.
  • The match day features a unique schedule with a double-header at Suncorp Stadium, which may influence atmosphere and pitch conditions slightly. Weather and travel fatigue do not appear to be major concerns as both teams are accustomed to playing at this venue. Referee Adam Gee, experienced in high-stakes games, will officiate, potentially ensuring a well-controlled match environment.
  • The Broncos are motivated to secure their third consecutive home victory and maintain momentum in the competition. The Warriors are driven to rebound strongly from a recent unexpected loss to the Panthers and will look to leverage their recent good form at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams are placed closely in the standings (4th vs 5th), adding competitive tension for valuable table points.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Brisbane Broncos: -186, New Zealand Warriors: 158, Draw: 2100 Brisbane Broncos ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Brisbane Broncos -5.5: -125, New Zealand Warriors +5.5: -105 Brisbane Broncos -5.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 48.5: -115, Under 48.5: -115 Over 48.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Brisbane Broncos -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 48.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the Broncos’ strong recent home performances and the Warriors’ mixed history against them at Suncorp, the Broncos hold a slight advantage. Expect a closely contested match with the Broncos edging out the Warriors by a narrow margin, leveraging home ground momentum and key player form.

Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 26 – 20 New Zealand Warriors


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Newcastle Knights vs. Canberra Raiders Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-27
  • Time: 10:00 AM UTC
  • Location: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Game Overview

The Newcastle Knights will host the Canberra Raiders in a pivotal Round 17 NRL match at McDonald Jones Stadium. Both teams are competing in the midst of an intense 2025 NRL season, with the Knights looking to capitalize on home advantage and community support during their Beanie for Brain Cancer Round. The Raiders come into the game with the motivation of milestone player Corey Horsburgh, who will play his 100th match for the club.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Newcastle Knights have demonstrated solid performances at home this season, leveraging strong defensive structures and effective attacking plays. The Canberra Raiders have been competitive but less consistent away from home. Recent rest for key players like Tyson Young suggests strategic player management by the Knights, while the Raiders are motivated by Horsburgh's milestone.
  • Historically, encounters between Newcastle and Canberra have been closely contested. Recent form slightly favors the Knights at home, but the Raiders have shown resilience and capacity to pull off upsets. The head-to-head rivalry adds intensity to this clash.
  • The Knights have Saifiti confirmed as fit and ready to play, while Tyson Young has been rested to keep him fresh. No significant injuries have been reported for the Raiders ahead of the match, indicating both teams will likely field close to full-strength squads.
  • The game is part of the Beanie for Brain Cancer Round at McDonald Jones Stadium, contributing added emotional motivation for the Knights and strong local support. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be favorable for a high-tempo game.
  • Corey Horsburgh's 100th game for the Raiders provides a strong personal and team incentive. For the Knights, the desire to maintain home dominance and engage the passionate local fanbase during a special charity round boosts their motivation to win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canberra Raiders: -250, Newcastle Knights: 205, Draw: 2300 Newcastle Knights to win ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Canberra Raiders -7.5: -120, Newcastle Knights +7.5: -110 Newcastle Knights +7.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 Over 44.5 points ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canberra Raiders 83%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Canberra Raiders at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the home advantage, recent team management, and emotional stakes, the Newcastle Knights are favored to win this encounter. The Raiders remain a threat but are underdogs on the road.

Predicted Score: Newcastle Knights 24 – 20 Canberra Raiders


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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs Wests Tigers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-27
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: 4 Pines Park, Sydney

Game Overview

The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles host the Wests Tigers in Round 17 of the 2025 NRL season at 4 Pines Park. The Sea Eagles are positioned 10th on the ladder while the Tigers sit 14th. Manly have made some key lineup changes with Lehi Hopoate returning at fullback, causing shifts in the backline, and some injury-enforced replacements in the forwards. The Tigers are coming off a narrow 16-12 loss to the Raiders and will be motivated to improve their standing. The match is expected to be competitive but the Sea Eagles enter as favorites given their stronger recent form and squad strength.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Manly Warringah Sea Eagles have shown better recent form and squad depth, especially with key players like Tom Trbojevic shifting to the centres and Reuben Garrick on the wing. Wests Tigers have struggled this season and recently lost narrowly to the Raiders, though they remain competitive.
  • Historically, the Sea Eagles have the upper hand over the Tigers, with recent head-to-head simulations giving Manly a 75% chance to win this match out of 10,000 simulations.
  • Lehi Hopoate returns for Manly from HIA protocol, while Lachlan Croker is out for Wests Tigers due to HIA protocol. Other minor injury replacements include Corey Waddell for Manly and Jake Simpkin comes off the bench for Wests Tigers.
  • The game is played at Manly's home ground 4 Pines Park, which provides a home advantage. Weather or other external factors were not highlighted in source data, so presumably neutral.
  • Wests Tigers are motivated to improve after a close loss last round, whereas Manly seeks to consolidate their top 10 position and build momentum in the second half of the season.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: -213, Wests Tigers: 183, Draw: 2200 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -7.5: -115, Wests Tigers +7.5: -115 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -7.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 47.5: -115, Under 47.5: -115 Over 47.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 47.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles are predicted to win by a comfortable margin, leveraging their home advantage, stronger squad, and better recent form. Expect a moderately high scoring game with Manly covering the -7.5 spread and total points going over 47.5.

Predicted Score: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 28 – Wests Tigers 18


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