Match Analysis: Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 5:00 AM UTC
- Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Game Overview
The Round 17 NRL clash between the Brisbane Broncos and New Zealand Warriors is set for June 28, 2025, at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos, currently 5th on the ladder, host the 4th-placed Warriors in a highly competitive match. Both teams have shown strong form recently, with the Broncos securing back-to-back high-scoring wins at home, and the Warriors winning three of their last four games at Suncorp Stadium. Key players like Reece Walsh and Payne Haas continue to impress for the Broncos, while the Warriors welcome back Queensland forward Kurt Capewell, bolstering their lineup. The match promises to be a closely fought contest with momentum on both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Brisbane Broncos have been prolific at Suncorp Stadium, scoring 78 points across their last two home victories. Their form is highlighted by centre Gehamat Shibasaki with five tries in four games, and winger Josiah Karapani contributing four tries in his last two home games. The Warriors have shown resilience and success at this venue, winning three of their past four matches there, but have not beaten the Broncos at Suncorp since 2018.
- Historically, the Broncos hold the edge at Suncorp Stadium over the Warriors, maintaining an unbeaten streak there against them since 2018. Recent encounters have been competitive, with the Warriors defeating the Broncos twice at Suncorp during the current season, indicating a rivalry with shifting momentum.
- The Warriors have made three key lineup changes including the return of Kurt Capewell to the second-row after missing a game due to travel and recovery, Rocco Berry returning from injury, and winger Edward Kosi replacing the injured Dallin Watene-Zelezniak who is out for four to six weeks. The Broncos have named an unchanged lineup, indicating full strength availability with no significant injury concerns noted.
- The match is part of a unique double-header at Suncorp Stadium with another NRL game to follow, which could influence crowd energy and atmosphere. Weather conditions are not specified but playing at home with strong crowd support typically favors the Broncos. The referee and officials are appointed as Adam Gee and team, with no indications of external controversies.
- The Broncos are chasing a third consecutive win to solidify their standing, riding momentum from recent comebacks and strong offensive displays. The Warriors aim to rebound from a shock loss to the Panthers, with added motivation from key players returning and the opportunity to maintain their strong record at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams are positioned closely on the ladder, intensifying the stakes for this matchup.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brisbane Broncos: -186, New Zealand Warriors: 158, Draw: 2100 | Brisbane Broncos | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Brisbane Broncos: -5.5 -125, New Zealand Warriors: 5.5 -105 | Brisbane Broncos to cover -5.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 48.5 -115, Under: 48.5 -115 | Under 48.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brisbane Broncos -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 48.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the Broncos' current momentum at home, their ability to score heavily, and the Warriors' close but slightly inconsistent recent form at this venue, the prediction leans toward a narrow Brisbane Broncos victory. However, the Warriors' recent successes and lineup reinforcements suggest it will be a competitive and tight game.
Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 26 – New Zealand Warriors 20