The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles host the Sydney Roosters in a critical NRL Round 22 clash, with both teams pushing for finals positioning late in the season. Manly enters with home advantage and favorable recent form against the Roosters.
Key Factors to Consider
Manly Sea Eagles have shown consistent and strong form this season, with a 59% win probability in simulations against the Roosters and a slight edge in scoring ability. The Roosters have been competitive but less consistent lately.
Recent head-to-head data and simulations indicate Manly edges the Roosters with a 59% win probability. The Sea Eagles have also demonstrated the ability to cover a -2.5 spread, reflecting close but controlled victories.
No significant injury news indicating absence of key players on either side, maintaining full-strength squads.
Playing at Lottoland offers Manly home ground advantage. The weather and pitch conditions are expected to be typical for the season, not favoring either team significantly.
Manly is highly motivated to consolidate their finals spot, while Roosters are fighting hard to remain relevant, but slightly less consistent form suggests lower motivation effectiveness.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -134, away: 115, draw: 2100
Home
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
home: -110, away: -120, spread_points: 2.5
Home -2.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
over: 110, under: -145, total_points: 48.5
Under 48.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 1220%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 48.5 1%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles at 1220% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 58.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to win, cover the -2.5 spread, and the total points to stay under 48.5.
The Canberra Raiders enter this match as strong favorites against the St George Illawarra Dragons, playing at home after a run of dominant performances, while the Dragons are struggling with injuries and inconsistent form.
Key Factors to Consider
Canberra Raiders are on a six-game winning streak at home, averaging 32 points per game. The Dragons have had recent struggles with form and injuries, returning to winning only recently and facing a tougher lineup disruption.
Raiders have won the last four encounters against the Dragons and are unbeaten at Canberra since 2015, demonstrating clear dominance in recent meetings.
St George Illawarra is impacted by multiple injuries and Origin call-ups, notably missing key players like Valentine Holmes and Nathan Lawson. Canberra has some lineup changes but retains a settled spine and welcomes back Hudson Young.
Playing at home in front of a supportive crowd enhances Canberra's advantage. Weather or other conditions not noted as significant.
Raiders aim to consolidate their top-of-the-table position and extend their winning streak, while Dragons are motivated to break their losing streak but face a challenging environment.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Canberra Raiders -218, St George Illawarra Dragons 185, Draw 2200
Canberra Raiders
★★★★☆ 82%
Spread
Canberra Raiders -6.5 (-115), St George Illawarra Dragons +6.5 (-115)
Canberra Raiders -6.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 46.5 (-105), Under 46.5 (-125)
Under 46.5
★★★☆☆ 57%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
St George Illawarra Dragons 14%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 46.5 3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: St George Illawarra Dragons at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Canberra’s strong form, home advantage, head-to-head dominance, and the Dragons’ injury setbacks, the Raiders are favored to win comfortably and cover a moderate spread.
Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 28 – St George Illawarra Dragons 14
The Penrith Panthers enter this Round 22 clash as clear favorites with strong recent form, whereas the Gold Coast Titans struggle near the bottom of the ladder despite a recent morale-boosting win.
Key Factors to Consider
Panthers have a 7-game winning streak and sit 5th on the ladder with a 10-7 record, showing strong defense and consistent winning form. Titans are 16th with 5-13, having won only 1 of their last 5 games.
In the last 10 matchups, the Panthers dominate with a 9-1 record against the Titans, reinforcing historical superiority.
No critical injury updates reported for either side, so full-strength lineups are expected.
Match played at Titans' home ground, but their home form is weak (2-6), while Panthers have a decent away record (4-3). Weather and other external factors appear neutral.
Panthers are pushing for a top-4 finals spot, adding motivation. Titans are fighting form and position but with low morale overall.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: 3.25, away: 1.23, draw: 25
Penrith Panthers
★★★★☆ 81%
Spread
home +12.5: 1.87, away -12.5: 1.87
Penrith Panthers -12.5
★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under
over 46.5: 1.87, under 46.5: 1.87
Under 46.5
★★★☆☆ 67%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Penrith Panthers -0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 46.5 25%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Penrith Panthers will win comfortably, covering the spread and with the total match points expected to stay under 46.5 given the defensive strength and form.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-3) host the Toronto Argonauts (2-5) in a pivotal CFL matchup. Winnipeg enters the game as favorites, showing solid road form historically and aiming to stabilize after recent defensive lapses. Toronto struggles offensively and sits near the bottom of the East Division standings, battling motivation issues but coming off a recent win against Winnipeg.
Key Factors to Consider
Winnipeg has a 3-3 record, showing inconsistency but strong road success with six wins in their last seven away games. Toronto is 2-5, with a weak offense averaging league-low yards per play and high turnover issues but has momentum from a recent 31-17 win over Winnipeg.
In the last encounter, Toronto defeated Winnipeg 31-17, with strong passing from Nick Arbuckle. Historically Winnipeg has been favored and has had success, but Toronto's recent victory shows potential competitiveness.
No major quarterback injuries reported; both starters Zach Collaros (Winnipeg) and Nick Arbuckle (Toronto) expected to start. Key offensive players are healthy, though Winnipeg's recent turnovers affected their defense negatively.
Game played at home for Winnipeg, giving them weather and crowd support advantages. Defensive improvements expected from Winnipeg facing a turnover-prone Argonauts offense.
Winnipeg motivated to rebound from recent defeats and maintain playoff contention. Toronto motivated to avoid bottom placement in their division but lacking consistent form.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Toronto +198, Winnipeg -245
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Toronto +5.5 -110, Winnipeg -5.5 -110
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -5.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 50.5 -115, Under 50.5 -105
Over 50.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 50.5 12%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 50.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Winnipeg Blue Bombers to win moneyline, cover the -5.5 spread, and the total points to go over 50.5
Predicted Score: Winnipeg Blue Bombers 30 – Toronto Argonauts 20
Location: Professional Fighters League (PFL) Event
Game Overview
Jordan Newman, a strong wrestler with proven control inside the cage, faces Eslam Baset, a striker with less wrestling prowess. Newman is heavily favored due to superior grappling and fight control, while Baset relies on striking to secure an upset.
Key Factors to Consider
Jordan Newman has shown dominant wrestling and control in recent bouts, winning decisively via takedowns and ground control. Eslam Baset has displayed solid striking but limited success against high-level wrestlers.
No recorded direct H2H matchups between Newman and Baset exist, but stylistically Newman's wrestling typically counters Baset's striking effectively.
No reported injuries or fight camp disruptions for either fighter.
Both fighters are competing at a neutral venue in the PFL circuit; no apparent external motivators or disadvantages.
Newman is vying to maintain his top contender status through dominant wins, while Baset seeks an upset breakthrough. Both have high motivation but Newman's path is clearer.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Jordan Newman -900, Eslam Baset +600
Jordan Newman
★★★★☆ 82%
Spread
Jordan Newman -1.5 rounds (-200), Eslam Baset +1.5 rounds (+150)
Jordan Newman -1.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds (-110), Under 2.5 rounds (-110)
Under 2.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Jordan Newman -10%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Jordan Newman at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Jordan Newman win
Predicted Score: Jordan Newman wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds
This featherweight MMA matchup features Asael Adjoudj, a favored fighter with consistent recent performances in the PFL World Tournament, against Yves Landu, who is the underdog but has shown resilience and potential for upsets.
Key Factors to Consider
Asael Adjoudj has demonstrated steady form with wins in recent tournament bouts indicating strong grappling and striking versatility. Yves Landu has had mixed results but possesses durability and often pushes fights beyond early rounds.
No recorded professional head-to-head matchups between Asael Adjoudj and Yves Landu, making tactical matchup and current form key factors.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both at full physical capacity.
Fight takes place in Atlantic City, a neutral venue for both; travel and acclimatization are unlikely to disproportionately affect either fighter.
As this is a semifinal PFL World Tournament bout, both fighters are highly motivated to progress, but Asael Adjoudj has a slightly stronger incentive due to favoritism and expectation to advance.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Asael Adjoudj: -210, Yves Landu: 170
Asael Adjoudj
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Asael Adjoudj -1.5 rounds: -110, Yves Landu +1.5 rounds: -110
Asael Adjoudj -1.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: 100
Under 2.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Asael Adjoudj 0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Asael Adjoudj at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Asael Adjoudj to win by decision
Predicted Score: Asael Adjoudj wins by Decision after 3 rounds