Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-05
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Botafogo hosts Vasco da Gama in a high-stakes Campeonato Brasileiro clash. Both teams are in mid-table form, but Botafogo holds a slight edge in recent H2H and overall attacking output. Vasco has shown resilience away from home, but Botafogo’s home advantage and superior recent results make them favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo has won 3 of their last 5, averaging 1.0 goals and conceding 0.6 per match. Vasco has won 2 of their last 5, averaging 1.4 goals and conceding 1.4 per match. Botafogo’s defense is more solid, while Vasco’s attack is slightly more potent but less consistent.
- Botafogo leads the all-time H2H with 26-25 wins and 20 draws in 71 meetings. In the last 5, Botafogo has won 3, Vasco 2. The most recent H2H was a Vasco win via penalty, but Botafogo has dominated the last few league meetings.
- No major injuries reported for either side. Both teams are expected to field their strongest lineups.
- The match is at Botafogo’s home stadium, which provides a significant advantage. Weather is expected to be clear, with no impact on play.
- Both teams are fighting for mid-table safety, but Botafogo has a slight edge in motivation as they look to secure a top-half finish. Vasco is playing for pride and to avoid relegation threats.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -114, away: 350, draw: 225 | Botafogo | Not available |
| Spread | home: -0.5, away: 50 | Botafogo -0.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 100, under: -120 | Under 2.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo 13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 25% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo to win and cover the -0.5 spread. The home advantage, superior defense, and recent form make Botafogo the clear favorite. The odds on Botafogo at -114 offer value given their probability of winning.
Predicted Score: 2-0