Match Analysis: Atletico Mineiro vs Grêmio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Game Overview
Atletico Mineiro hosts Grêmio in a high-stakes Brasileirão Serie A clash. Both teams have a rich history with Grêmio historically holding a slight edge in head-to-head wins. Atletico Mineiro is mid-table but playing at home with a strong defensive record recently, while Grêmio fights to climb from a lower position and has been unbeaten in their last five matches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atletico Mineiro has 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and conceding 1.0 per game. Grêmio is unbeaten in their last 5 with 2 wins and 3 draws, scoring and conceding roughly 1.4 goals per match each.
- Historically, Grêmio leads with 19 wins vs 13 for Atletico Mineiro in 39 meetings, though recent seasons are more balanced with Grêmio 14 wins, Atletico 10, and 6 draws in 30 matches. Neither team has drawn in their last 7 meetings, suggesting a decisive result is probable.
- Predicted lineups are not yet available, but no significant injuries have been reported affecting key players for either side before this matchup.
- Match is played at Atletico Mineiro's modern Arena MRV, giving them a home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are not expected to be adverse.
- Atletico Mineiro sits mid-table needing points to push for a higher finish, while Grêmio is motivated to escape the lower ranks and could play aggressively to secure a positive away result.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Atletico Mineiro: -139, Grêmio: 390, Draw: 260 | Atletico Mineiro | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Atletico Mineiro -0.75: -105, Grêmio +75: -115 | Atletico Mineiro -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -115, Under 2.25: -105 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Atletico Mineiro 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atletico Mineiro to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.75 handicap, with a moderately low scoring game under 2.25 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-0