Round 21 NRL clash between Brisbane Broncos and Parramatta Eels at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane Broncos are strong favorites with significant home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
Broncos demonstrated dominant form recently and hold an 81% win probability over Eels per simulation models, while Eels have struggled against top teams.
Broncos have historically had a strong record against the Eels, frequently winning by comfortable margins especially at home.
No major injury news impacting key players from either side was reported; squads expected near full strength.
Home field advantage for Broncos at Suncorp Stadium combined with supportive crowd enhances their chances.
Broncos motivated to solidify playoff positioning; Eels need a upset to stay competitive, but recent form discounts their chances as strong underdogs.
Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Game Overview
The North Queensland Cowboys host the St George Illawarra Dragons at home, where the Cowboys traditionally perform well. Both teams are contending for a position in the finals, but despite similar recent defensive records, the Cowboys have a slight power ranking edge and the added advantage of home ground, while the Dragons have shown resilience and upside as underdogs, especially in tight contests. Tropical conditions and humidity could play a role in fatigue and error rates.
Key Factors to Consider
Both teams have been conceding heavily in recent weeks, but the Dragons have a slight edge in points scored per game. The Cowboys have an impressive home record, but their recent defense is a concern. Dragons are on a resurgent run and have been competitive on the road.
Cowboys traditionally dominate at home. Their power ranking is marginally better (12.33 vs 13.67), but statistical analysis reveals minimal separation between the sides[1]. This is a near coin-flip match by most metrics.
No significant recent injury reports for either side (as of current data), but always check closer to kickoff for late changes.
Tropical heat and humidity in Townsville may affect conditioning, favoring teams with superior fitness and discipline. The Cowboys’ home fortress effect is notable[1].
Both teams are highly motivated for a crucial finals push, elevating the stakes and likely resulting in a tightly contested match.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Cowboys -174 / Dragons 148 / Draw 2100
St George Illawarra Dragons
★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread
Cowboys -4.5 (-115) / Dragons +4.5 (-115)
Dragons +4.5
★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under
Over 46.5 (-145) / Under 46.5 (110)
Under 46.5
★★★☆☆ 58%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
St George Illawarra Dragons 26%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 46.5 22%
🔥 Best Value Pick: St George Illawarra Dragons at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This is one of the closest fixtures of the round, with the Cowboys’ home record counterbalanced by the Dragons’ recent form. Despite bookmakers favoring the Cowboys, the Dragons offer significant value as underdogs. Expect a low-scoring, defensive battle due to humid conditions and high stakes[1].
Predicted Score: St George Illawarra Dragons 20 – North Queensland Cowboys 19
Manuel Flores, a more experienced southpaw with a record of 20-1, faces undefeated orthodox Jorge Chavez (14-0) in a 10-round Super Bantamweight fight. Flores holds a knockout power advantage and slight height advantage, while Chavez has a one-inch reach edge.
Key Factors to Consider
Flores has 20 wins (16 KOs), demonstrating 80% KO power; Chavez has 14 wins (8 KOs) with 57% KO rate. Flores' experience and longer career (debut in 2017 vs 2021) favor him.
No previous encounters between Flores and Chavez.
No reported injuries on either fighter leading up to the match.
Fight held at a home-advantage venue for Flores in California; potential crowd support could boost motivation.
Flores looks to maintain dominance and avenge his single loss; Chavez is motivated to preserve undefeated record and claim a high-profile win.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Manuel Flores -215, Jorge Chavez +164
Manuel Flores
★★★★☆ 74%
Spread
Manuel Flores -1.5 rounds or equivalent
Manuel Flores to cover the spread
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
Over 8.5 rounds -110 / Under 8.5 rounds -110
Under 8.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Manuel Flores 7%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Manuel Flores at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Manuel Flores to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Manuel Flores wins by late-round TKO or unanimous decision before round 9
The Calgary Stampeders host the Montreal Alouettes in a pivotal CFL Week 8 matchup. Calgary enters with a strong 5-1 record, excelling defensively by allowing only 18.5 points per game. Montreal, with a 4-2 record, faces offensive challenges due to key injuries. Calgary’s recent form and defensive pressure are expected to control the game tempo.
Key Factors to Consider
Calgary leads with 5-1 straight up and against the spread; Montreal stands at 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS. Calgary's defense is top-tier, limiting opponents effectively, while Montreal’s offense is impacted by injuries.
Recent head-to-head favors Calgary who have shown they can cover spreads and produce consistent wins over Montreal.
Montreal’s offensive capabilities are impaired notably by the injury to Alexander, reducing their effectiveness in scoring and quarterback protection.
Game played at Calgary’s home venue, McMahon Stadium, giving the Stampeders a home-field advantage with supportive crowd and familiar conditions.
Calgary aims to extend their dominance and improve to 6-1, maintaining momentum for playoffs. Montreal looks to overcome setbacks and remain competitive.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Calgary -250, Montreal +202
Calgary Stampeders
★★★★☆ 74%
Spread
Calgary -5.5 (-115), Montreal +5.5 (-105)
Calgary Stampeders -5.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 50.5 (-110), Under 50.5 (-110)
Under 50.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Calgary Stampeders -13%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 50.5 15%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Calgary Stampeders to win outright and cover the spread; expect a solid defensive game with the total staying under the line.
Predicted Score: Calgary Stampeders 28 – Montreal Alouettes 20
Location: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias do Sul, Brazil
Game Overview
Juventude hosts São Paulo in a Brasileirão Série A match where both teams are struggling with recent form and low scoring. Juventude sits in the relegation zone with poor home and overall form, while São Paulo is slightly higher in the table but has also experienced inconsistent results.
Key Factors to Consider
Juventude has won only 1 of their last 5 matches and averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. São Paulo similarly has only 1 win in their last 5 games, scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 1.8 on average.
São Paulo holds a historical advantage over Juventude, having won more meetings in recent games. However, Juventude will try to leverage their unbeaten home record, which is under threat given recent form.
No specific injury reports available, but both teams appear to have their usual squads with no major absences reported.
Playing at home offers Juventude some advantage, but their low capacity stadium (about 20,000 seats) minimizes external impact. Both teams face pressure due to their position near relegation.
Juventude is highly motivated to avoid relegation with 11 points after 13 matches, while São Paulo aims to consolidate and move upward in the table after ending a losing streak recently.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Juventude: 251, São Paulo: 125, Draw: 212
São Paulo
★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread
Juventude +25: -108, São Paulo -0.25: -112
São Paulo -0.25
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 2: -102, Under 2: -118
Under 2 goals
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Sao Paulo 76%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2 11%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sao Paulo at 76% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
São Paulo to win the match narrowly with under 2 goals scored overall.
The Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles in a mid-season MLB matchup where the Guardians are slight favorites at home, featuring a pitching duel between Logan Allen (CLE) and Charlie Morton (BAL).
Key Factors to Consider
Guardians hold a 51-50 record, winning 4 of their last 5 home games and 6 of their last 7 day games against losing teams; Orioles are 44-57 with 6 losses in their last 7 games and a 10-game road losing streak versus AL Central teams.
Charlie Morton has a strong personal record vs Guardians (3-1, 2.76 ERA in last 5 starts); Logan Allen is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA lifetime vs Orioles. Guardians won the last encounter 3-2.
No major injuries reported affecting key players; both teams likely close to full strength.
Game played in Cleveland home stadium under usual day game conditions; Orioles face travel fatigue on a road trip; weather and park factors neutral.
Guardians motivated to avoid a series sweep and maintain positive momentum; Orioles seek to rebound to avoid being swept and prepare for upcoming home series.