The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles host the Sydney Roosters in a critical NRL Round 22 clash, with both teams pushing for finals positioning late in the season. Manly enters with home advantage and favorable recent form against the Roosters.
Key Factors to Consider
Manly Sea Eagles have shown consistent and strong form this season, with a 59% win probability in simulations against the Roosters and a slight edge in scoring ability. The Roosters have been competitive but less consistent lately.
Recent head-to-head data and simulations indicate Manly edges the Roosters with a 59% win probability. The Sea Eagles have also demonstrated the ability to cover a -2.5 spread, reflecting close but controlled victories.
No significant injury news indicating absence of key players on either side, maintaining full-strength squads.
Playing at Lottoland offers Manly home ground advantage. The weather and pitch conditions are expected to be typical for the season, not favoring either team significantly.
Manly is highly motivated to consolidate their finals spot, while Roosters are fighting hard to remain relevant, but slightly less consistent form suggests lower motivation effectiveness.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -134, away: 115, draw: 2100
Home
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
home: -110, away: -120, spread_points: 2.5
Home -2.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
over: 110, under: -145, total_points: 48.5
Under 48.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 1220%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 48.5 1%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles at 1220% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 58.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to win, cover the -2.5 spread, and the total points to stay under 48.5.
The Canberra Raiders enter this match as strong favorites against the St George Illawarra Dragons, playing at home after a run of dominant performances, while the Dragons are struggling with injuries and inconsistent form.
Key Factors to Consider
Canberra Raiders are on a six-game winning streak at home, averaging 32 points per game. The Dragons have had recent struggles with form and injuries, returning to winning only recently and facing a tougher lineup disruption.
Raiders have won the last four encounters against the Dragons and are unbeaten at Canberra since 2015, demonstrating clear dominance in recent meetings.
St George Illawarra is impacted by multiple injuries and Origin call-ups, notably missing key players like Valentine Holmes and Nathan Lawson. Canberra has some lineup changes but retains a settled spine and welcomes back Hudson Young.
Playing at home in front of a supportive crowd enhances Canberra's advantage. Weather or other conditions not noted as significant.
Raiders aim to consolidate their top-of-the-table position and extend their winning streak, while Dragons are motivated to break their losing streak but face a challenging environment.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Canberra Raiders -218, St George Illawarra Dragons 185, Draw 2200
Canberra Raiders
★★★★☆ 82%
Spread
Canberra Raiders -6.5 (-115), St George Illawarra Dragons +6.5 (-115)
Canberra Raiders -6.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 46.5 (-105), Under 46.5 (-125)
Under 46.5
★★★☆☆ 57%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
St George Illawarra Dragons 14%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 46.5 3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: St George Illawarra Dragons at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Canberra’s strong form, home advantage, head-to-head dominance, and the Dragons’ injury setbacks, the Raiders are favored to win comfortably and cover a moderate spread.
Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 28 – St George Illawarra Dragons 14
The Penrith Panthers enter this Round 22 clash as clear favorites with strong recent form, whereas the Gold Coast Titans struggle near the bottom of the ladder despite a recent morale-boosting win.
Key Factors to Consider
Panthers have a 7-game winning streak and sit 5th on the ladder with a 10-7 record, showing strong defense and consistent winning form. Titans are 16th with 5-13, having won only 1 of their last 5 games.
In the last 10 matchups, the Panthers dominate with a 9-1 record against the Titans, reinforcing historical superiority.
No critical injury updates reported for either side, so full-strength lineups are expected.
Match played at Titans' home ground, but their home form is weak (2-6), while Panthers have a decent away record (4-3). Weather and other external factors appear neutral.
Panthers are pushing for a top-4 finals spot, adding motivation. Titans are fighting form and position but with low morale overall.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: 3.25, away: 1.23, draw: 25
Penrith Panthers
★★★★☆ 81%
Spread
home +12.5: 1.87, away -12.5: 1.87
Penrith Panthers -12.5
★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under
over 46.5: 1.87, under 46.5: 1.87
Under 46.5
★★★☆☆ 67%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Penrith Panthers -0%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 46.5 25%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Penrith Panthers will win comfortably, covering the spread and with the total match points expected to stay under 46.5 given the defensive strength and form.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-3) host the Toronto Argonauts (2-5) in a pivotal CFL matchup. Winnipeg enters the game as favorites, showing solid road form historically and aiming to stabilize after recent defensive lapses. Toronto struggles offensively and sits near the bottom of the East Division standings, battling motivation issues but coming off a recent win against Winnipeg.
Key Factors to Consider
Winnipeg has a 3-3 record, showing inconsistency but strong road success with six wins in their last seven away games. Toronto is 2-5, with a weak offense averaging league-low yards per play and high turnover issues but has momentum from a recent 31-17 win over Winnipeg.
In the last encounter, Toronto defeated Winnipeg 31-17, with strong passing from Nick Arbuckle. Historically Winnipeg has been favored and has had success, but Toronto's recent victory shows potential competitiveness.
No major quarterback injuries reported; both starters Zach Collaros (Winnipeg) and Nick Arbuckle (Toronto) expected to start. Key offensive players are healthy, though Winnipeg's recent turnovers affected their defense negatively.
Game played at home for Winnipeg, giving them weather and crowd support advantages. Defensive improvements expected from Winnipeg facing a turnover-prone Argonauts offense.
Winnipeg motivated to rebound from recent defeats and maintain playoff contention. Toronto motivated to avoid bottom placement in their division but lacking consistent form.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Toronto +198, Winnipeg -245
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Toronto +5.5 -110, Winnipeg -5.5 -110
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -5.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 50.5 -115, Under 50.5 -105
Over 50.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 50.5 12%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 50.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Winnipeg Blue Bombers to win moneyline, cover the -5.5 spread, and the total points to go over 50.5
Predicted Score: Winnipeg Blue Bombers 30 – Toronto Argonauts 20
Location: Undisclosed (PFL World Tournament Finals Venue)
Game Overview
Jesus Pinedo vs Movlid Khaybulaev is a highly competitive PFL lightweight final scheduled for August 1, 2025. Both fighters are near career peak, with contrasting styles: Pinedo is aggressive with strong finishing power, while Khaybulaev has precise striking and a more methodical pace. Odds open with Pinedo as a slight favorite but market movement shows some uncertainty.
Key Factors to Consider
Pinedo has been on a hot streak with several recent finishes, leveraging aggressive striking and wrestling. Khaybulaev has consistently outpointed opponents using technical striking and solid grappling defense, staying undefeated in recent bouts. Both show excellent conditioning and well-rounded skills.
No prior head-to-head meetings, so tactical matchup largely speculative. Pinedo's aggression could test Khaybulaev's composure and counter-striking.
No reported major injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, both expected to be at full strength.
Event is a PFL final, so motivation and stakes are extremely high for both. Fighting on neutral ground reduces home advantage bias.
Both fighters motivated by massive PFL title and prize, likely to bring their best performances. Slight edge to Khaybulaev for maintaining an undefeated 2025 run, enhancing confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Jesus Pinedo: -165, Movlid Khaybulaev: +135
Movlid Khaybulaev
★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread
Movlid Khaybulaev -1.5: +200, Jesus Pinedo +1.5: -250
Jesus Pinedo +1.5 (spread)
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110
Over 2.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 72%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Movlid Khaybulaev 36%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Movlid Khaybulaev at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Movlid Khaybulaev to win via decision
Predicted Score: Movlid Khaybulaev wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds
The 2025 PFL Welterweight Championship final between undefeated Thad Jean (10-0) and experienced Logan Storley (18-3) will be contested with a $1,000,000 prize at stake. Jean has youth, height, and an undefeated record, while Storley brings extensive MMA and wrestling experience.
Key Factors to Consider
Thad Jean has an undefeated 10-0 record showing consistent recent performance; Logan Storley, despite starting PFL with a KO loss, is 3-0 in his last three fights and has significant high-level MMA and wrestling pedigree.
No previous head-to-head matchup found between Jean and Storley, making styles and form analysis critical.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
High stakes ($1 million prize) likely increase motivation. Jean's height and reach advantage may impact fight dynamics significantly.
Both fighters are highly motivated by the title and large payday; Jean's undefeated status gives him confidence, while Storley’s comeback narrative adds psychological edge.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Thad Jean: -240, Logan Storley: +190
Thad Jean
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Thad Jean -1.5: +150, Logan Storley +1.5: -170
Thad Jean -1.5 (win by 2 or more rounds)
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110
Under 2.5 rounds (fight finishes in fewer rounds)
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Thad Jean -1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Thad Jean at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Thad Jean to win via decision
Predicted Score: Thad Jean wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds
Location: Professional Fighters League (PFL) Event
Game Overview
Jordan Newman, a strong wrestler with proven control inside the cage, faces Eslam Baset, a striker with less wrestling prowess. Newman is heavily favored due to superior grappling and fight control, while Baset relies on striking to secure an upset.
Key Factors to Consider
Jordan Newman has shown dominant wrestling and control in recent bouts, winning decisively via takedowns and ground control. Eslam Baset has displayed solid striking but limited success against high-level wrestlers.
No recorded direct H2H matchups between Newman and Baset exist, but stylistically Newman's wrestling typically counters Baset's striking effectively.
No reported injuries or fight camp disruptions for either fighter.
Both fighters are competing at a neutral venue in the PFL circuit; no apparent external motivators or disadvantages.
Newman is vying to maintain his top contender status through dominant wins, while Baset seeks an upset breakthrough. Both have high motivation but Newman's path is clearer.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Jordan Newman -900, Eslam Baset +600
Jordan Newman
★★★★☆ 82%
Spread
Jordan Newman -1.5 rounds (-200), Eslam Baset +1.5 rounds (+150)
Jordan Newman -1.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds (-110), Under 2.5 rounds (-110)
Under 2.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
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Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Jordan Newman -10%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
N/A
🔥 Best Value Pick: Jordan Newman at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Jordan Newman win
Predicted Score: Jordan Newman wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds
Welterweight bout between Sarek Shields and Nick Meck at PFL World Tournament 8. Both fighters are coming off wins in recent PFL events, with Shields holding a 7-2 career record and Meck showing strong form in 2025.
Key Factors to Consider
Sarek Shields holds a 7-2 professional MMA record with a balanced finishing ability: 50% decisions and 50% submissions, indicating versatility. Nick Meck has shown consistent wins in 2025 tournaments, winning in the semifinals on June 11 and demonstrating good momentum.
No clear direct previous encounter records are available, but both fighters have met recently within the tournament circuit, increasing familiarity. Shields appears slightly favored based on stylistic matchups and previous results.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, suggesting both are at full health.
Fight taking place in a high-stakes PFL semifinal environment which may elevate competitive intensity. Both fighters motivated by tournament progression and prize incentives.
Both fighters highly motivated; Shields seeking to capitalize on home crowd advantage and momentum from recent submission wins; Meck motivated by recent victories and aim to solidify place in the tournament finals.