Match Analysis: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-28
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Game Overview
The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Calgary Flames in a late October NHL matchup. Toronto enters with a 4-4-1 record, showing moderate scoring and strong home performance, while Calgary struggles on the road with a 2-7-1 record and less consistent offense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto’s offense averages roughly mid-threes goals per game at home, while allowing just above three goals. Calgary has struggled offensively on the road, scoring in the high ones per game and allowing nearly the same number of goals as Toronto. Toronto’s special teams, especially their power play featuring Matthews and Marner, have shown greater threat compared to Calgary’s sputtering power play.
- Historically, Toronto leads the recent head-to-head series 58% to 40%. Toronto won the majority of the last 5 meetings, often by multiple goals, suggesting a matchup advantage.
- No notable injury reports have been published for either team ahead of this game, indicating both sides are likely near full strength.
- The game is played at Toronto’s home arena with a strong home crowd advantage. Travel fatigue likely favors Toronto as Calgary is on the road. No weather or other external disruptions affect the indoor hockey environment.
- Toronto, mid-pack in the Atlantic Division, will look to stabilize their season with a home win. Calgary sits near the bottom of the Pacific and will be motivated to upset on the road, but recent form dampens confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto Maple Leafs -200, Calgary Flames +160 | Toronto Maple Leafs | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (-145), Calgary Flames +1.5 (+125) | Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 6 goals -110, Under 6 goals -110 | Over 6 goals | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toronto Maple Leafs -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Maple Leafs to win outright (Moneyline), covering the -1.5 puck line, and the game going over 6 total goals.
Predicted Score: Toronto Maple Leafs 4 – 2 Calgary Flames