Match Analysis: Viacheslav Borshchev vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 11:05 PM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Game Overview
The lightweight clash between Viacheslav Borshchev and Matheus Camilo at UFC 322 features Camilo as a slight favorite (-162 moneyline) over Borshchev (+136). Camilo enters motivated after a disappointing recent performance where he appeared to underperform, yet he brings solid submission skills against Borshchev who has shown vulnerabilities on the ground. The fight is expected to be competitive with Camilo's grappling edge and youth likely tipping the balance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Camilo holds a 9-3 record with a submission skillset highlighted by a Kamora win and a strong grappling defense. Borshchev is 8-6-1 overall with a UFC record of 3-5-1, showing inconsistency and struggles to close fights in the UFC.
- No previous H2H meetings between the fighters.
- No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the bout.
- Late addition to UFC 322 prelims, Camilo replacing a withdrawn opponent recently, indicating good conditioning and readiness despite short notice.
- Camilo appears motivated to rebound strongly after a disappointing last fight where he seemed to give up early, while Borshchev has had mixed UFC success, likely under pressure to prove himself.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Camilo -162, Borshchev +136 | Camilo | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Camilo -3.5 -105, Borshchev +3.5 -125 | Camilo -3.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 +130, Under 2.5 -166 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Matheus Camilo 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Matheus Camilo to win by submission
Predicted Score: Camilo wins via 2nd round submission