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Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 7:15 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC 321, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

This is a bantamweight main card fight featuring the rising Umar Nurmagomedov, a dominant grappler with elite wrestling pedigree, against the surging Mario Bautista, who rides an eight-fight win streak thanks to improved striking and defensive grappling. Nurmagomedov is a heavy favorite due to pedigree, recent form, and perceived superior skill set.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Nurmagomedov is undefeated in the UFC and widely regarded as a future champion. Bautista is in the best form of his career, recently defeating top-tier competition by decision. However, Nurmagomedov's pace, grappling, and control have overwhelmed all UFC opponents so far.
  • These fighters have never met; Nurmagomedov has never lost. Bautista's recent wins have come against dangerous strikers and grapplers, but no one with Nurmagomedov's wrestling pedigree.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout.
  • Nurmagomedov fights out of Dagestan, known for elite wrestling and tight-knit training camps. The event is in Abu Dhabi, a neutral venue. Expectations and media pressure are high on Nurmagomedov.
  • Nurmagomedov seeks to cement himself as a title contender. Bautista is motivated to break into the elite and prove he can hang at the top of the division.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Umar Nurmagomedov -625, Mario Bautista +455 Umar Nurmagomedov ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Umar Nurmagomedov -5.5 (-135), Mario Bautista +5.5 (100) Umar Nurmagomedov -5.5 ★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-260), Under 2.5 (195) Over 2.5 ★★★★★ 90%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Umar Nurmagomedov -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 64% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nurmagomedov wins a dominant, methodical decision rooted in wrestling control, pace, and cage craft. Bautista’s defensive grappling is tested, but he struggles to keep it standing or mount consistent offense.

Predicted Score: Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario Bautista by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)


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Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Prediction

Match Analysis: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-10-25 Time: 7:15 PM UTC Location: UFC 321, Abu Dhabi Game Overview This is a bantamweight main card fight featuring the rising Umar Nurmagomedov, a dominant grappler with elite wrestling pedigree, against the surging Mario Bautista, who rides an eight-fight win streak thanks […]

Mario Bautista MMA/Boxing October 25, 2025 Umar Nurmagomedov

MORE FROM MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 8:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

UFC 321 heavyweight title fight between home fighter Tom Aspinall and challenger Ciryl Gane. Both are top-tier heavyweights with distinct styles: Aspinall is a strong grappler with high submission averages, while Gane excels in striking and technical stand-up. Aspinall's recent form shows high takedown accuracy and submission threats, while Gane leverages reach and striking volume.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Aspinall holds a record of 15-3 with 100% takedown accuracy recently, averaging 3.27 takedowns per fight and 1.63 submissions per 15 minutes, indicating strong ground control. Gane has a record of 13-2, with superior striking volume (8.07 significant strikes landed per minute vs. Gane’s 5.26) and decent takedown defense (75%), but less ground finishing ability.
  • No direct previous matchups, but stylistically Aspinall’s grappling may neutralize Gane’s striking advantage if clinch and ground transitions succeed.
  • No publicly reported injuries for either fighter at this time suggesting both are at full fitness.
  • Fight held in neutral venue (Abu Dhabi) minimizing home crowd impact. Both fighters motivated to win the heavyweight title, implying high intensity.
  • Aspinall fights for title supremacy with confidence from effective ground game; Gane aims to regain belt with precise striking and reach advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Tom Aspinall: -355, Ciryl Gane: 280 Tom Aspinall ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Tom Aspinall: -310, Ciryl Gane: 215 Tom Aspinall -13.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -120, Under 1.5 rounds: -110 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Tom Aspinall -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tom Aspinall to win via submission or decision

Predicted Score: Tom Aspinall wins by submission or decision after round 2


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Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: October 25, 2025
  • Time: 7:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

The upcoming fight between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern is for the vacant women's strawweight title at UFC 321. Mackenzie Dern is favored due to her prolific submission skills, while Jandiroba excels in takedowns and grappling.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Mackenzie Dern has a strong submission game with eight finishes, while Virna Jandiroba averages 4.57 takedowns per 15 minutes.
  • No previous head-to-head matchups have been recorded between these fighters.
  • No significant injuries have been reported.
  • The fight being part of UFC 321 with a title at stake adds significant motivation for both fighters.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated, competing for a title.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Mackenzie Dern: -148, Virna Jandiroba: 124 Mackenzie Dern ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Mackenzie Dern: -5.5 105, Virna Jandiroba: 5.5 -145 Mackenzie Dern ★★★☆☆ 69%
Over/under Over: 4.5 -125, Under: 4.5 -105 Under 4.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Mackenzie Dern -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 4.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 4.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mackenzie Dern to win by submission.

Predicted Score: Mackenzie Dern wins by submission in the 3rd round.


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Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 6:45 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Main Card Event, Venue TBD

Game Overview

Heavyweight UFC bout featuring Alexander Volkov, a seasoned striker with notable KO power, against Jailton Almeida, a grappling specialist progressing rapidly in MMA with strong submission skills and recent momentum.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Volkov has had mixed recent performances, showing durability and heavy hands but sometimes vulnerable to wrestlers. Almeida has exhibited growth with undefeated or near-undefeated momentum, strong grappling control, and steady improvement in striking defense.
  • No prior head-to-head bouts between Volkov and Almeida; styles suggest Almeida's grappling could neutralize Volkov's striking advantage.
  • No major injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the bout, both expected to be at full strength.
  • Fight scheduled as a main card bout, high stakes for Almeida to prove himself in heavyweight division; Volkov motivated to defend reputation and maintain ranking.
  • Almeida highly motivated to capitalize on recent rise; Volkov motivated to avoid career setbacks against a surging contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Alexander Volkov: +164, Jailton Almeida: -198 Jailton Almeida ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Alexander Volkov +7.5: +100, Jailton Almeida -7.5: -135 Jailton Almeida -7.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -130, Under 1.5 rounds: +100 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jailton Almeida -11%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jailton Almeida wins via submission within 3 rounds

Predicted Score: Jailton Almeida wins by submission at round 2:30


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Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Aleksandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 6:15 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC 321, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

Light heavyweight bout featuring Aleksandar Rakic and Azamat Murzakanov. Both fighters are closely matched on paper with nearly even odds, but Murzakanov has recent momentum and finishing power advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Murzakanov is undefeated in UFC with 6 straight wins, 5 by KO/TKO. Rakic has suffered 2 KO/TKO losses in his last 3 fights.
  • No previous head-to-head matchups exist between Rakic and Murzakanov.
  • No significant injury reports disclosed for either fighter leading up to this bout.
  • Fight location in Abu Dhabi is neutral ground. Murzakanov has shown strong fight finishes early in bouts, which can influence pace and strategy.
  • Murzakanov is motivated to maintain his perfect UFC record and showcase his finishing ability, while Rakic seeks redemption after recent KO losses.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Aleksandar Rakic: -108, Azamat Murzakanov: -112 Azamat Murzakanov ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Aleksandar Rakic +3.5: -170, Azamat Murzakanov -3.5: 125 Azamat Murzakanov -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -115, Under 2.5 rounds: -115 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Azamat Murzakanov -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Azamat Murzakanov to win by KO/TKO

Predicted Score: Azamat Murzakanov wins by 2nd round TKO


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Andrea Bicchi vs. Tomas Melis Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Andrea Bicchi vs Tomas Melis – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 6:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Not Specified

Game Overview

This matchup between Andrea Bicchi and Tomas Melis in the MMA Mixed Martial Arts arena is an intriguing contest. Bicchi has been favored by bookmakers, indicating a slight edge over Melis.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Recent form suggests Bicchi has been slightly more consistent, contributing to his favored status.
  • There is no reported head-to-head matchup between the two fighters to consider.
  • No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter.
  • External factors such as crowd support and judging decisions could play a role but are difficult to quantify.
  • Both fighters are likely highly motivated, but Bicchi's favoritism might suggest a slight edge in preparation or confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bicchi: -170, Melis: 130 Andrea Bicchi ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Andrea Bicchi -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Andrea Bicchi at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Andrea Bicchi is predicted to win based on his current form and favoritism.

Predicted Score: Decision Victory for Andrea Bicchi


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Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 5:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Etihad Arena

Game Overview

Nasrat Haqparast and Quillan Salkilld face off in a highly anticipated lightweight bout at UFC 321. Haqparast brings veteran experience with 14 UFC fights under his belt, showcasing sharp boxing and durability. Salkilld is an up-and-coming fighter known for his athleticism and evolving striking and grappling skills, but his relative inexperience and gas tank limitations could be tested.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Haqparast is on a four-fight winning streak showing consistent finishing ability and composure under pressure. Salkilld impressed in his last fight with a mixed striking and wrestling approach but has less UFC experience overall.
  • No prior matchups between these fighters.
  • No significant injuries reported for either fighter going into the bout.
  • Fight takes place at neutral Etihad Arena with no apparent home advantage. Both fighters motivated to solidify standings in the lightweight division.
  • Haqparast looks to extend his UFC momentum and leverage his experience to outsmart the younger opponent. Salkilld aims to make a breakout statement and prove his evolving skill set against a seasoned veteran.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Nasrat Haqparast: -110, Quillan Salkilld: -110 Nasrat Haqparast ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Nasrat Haqparast -3.5: +165, Quillan Salkilld +3.5: -230 Quillan Salkilld +3.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -215, Under 2.5 rounds: +165 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Nasrat Haqparast 5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 59%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Nasrat Haqparast to win

Predicted Score: Nasrat Haqparast wins via decision after 3 rounds


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Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jun Yong Park Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Ikram Aliskerov vs Jun Yong Park – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 5:20 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC 321, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

Middleweight UFC prelims bout featuring Ikram Aliskerov, a powerful grappler/finisher with recent momentum, against Jun Yong Park, a resilient striker known for durable performances and recent unanimous decision wins.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Aliskerov is on a strong winning streak with multiple finishes, including knockouts and submissions, showing effective fight-ending skills. Park recently won by dominant decision, demonstrating endurance but fewer finishes.
  • No previous head-to-head matchups exist between Aliskerov and Park.
  • No documented injury concerns reported for either fighter leading up to the bout.
  • Fight is on a major pay-per-view card in Abu Dhabi, favoring fighters with experience in high-pressure environments; Aliskerov has more recent fights on big stages.
  • Aliskerov aims to further cement a rising status in the division with an emphatic win; Park looks to rebound and prove competitiveness after his last decision win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ikram Aliskerov: -250, Jun Yong Park: 205 Ikram Aliskerov ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Ikram Aliskerov -3.5: -135, Jun Yong Park +3.5: 100 Ikram Aliskerov -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -125, Under 2.5 rounds: -105 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ikram Aliskerov -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ikram Aliskerov wins by knockout before the third round.

Predicted Score: Ikram Aliskerov wins by KO in Round 2


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L'udovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: L'udovit Klein vs Mateusz Rebecki – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 4:55 PM UTC
  • Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Game Overview

Lightweight UFC prelim bout featuring L'udovit Klein and Mateusz Rebecki, both skilled strikers with solid MMA records and recent fights in top promotions.

Key Factors to Consider

  • L'udovit Klein holds a 23-5-1 record, showing consistent recent form with a diverse finishing ability, while Mateusz Rebecki at 20-3-0 has strong grappling and durability but lost his last fight via unanimous decision.
  • No previous fights between Klein and Rebecki to inform matchup dynamics.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both are at full readiness.
  • Fight scheduled on UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi; travel and acclimatization are likely equal for both as experienced competitors.
  • Klein appears motivated to rebound after some recent decision losses, aiming to establish dominance, while Rebecki seeks to recover from his last unanimous decision loss to Chris Duncan.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline L'udovit Klein: -130, Mateusz Rebecki: 110 L'udovit Klein ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread L'udovit Klein -3.5: 120, Mateusz Rebecki +3.5: -165 Mateusz Rebecki +3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -145, Under 2.5 rounds: 114 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 63%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline L'udovit Klein 3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 18%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

L'udovit Klein to win by decision

Predicted Score: Klein wins via unanimous decision in 3 rounds


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Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-25
  • Time: 4:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

A lightweight UFC prelim fight featuring Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo, both fighters possess similar recent form and skill levels, making this a closely contested matchup anticipated to extend beyond early rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both fighters have demonstrated solid technical grappling and striking in recent bouts with no significant downturns; Al-Selwady shows slightly higher recent activity and decision wins while Camilo has strong finishing ability.
  • No prior head-to-head matchups recorded, making strategy and adaptability in-fight critical.
  • No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter heading into the bout.
  • Fight takes place in a neutral venue (Abu Dhabi) with no clear home advantage; standard weight conditions and regulation environment.
  • Both fighters are motivated to secure UFC roster positioning and momentum; Al-Selwady's recent decision wins give him confidence in going the distance, Camilo likely motivated to showcase finishing skills.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -102, away: -118 Matheus Camilo ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Al-Selwady +3.5: -155, Camilo -3.5: 115 Al-Selwady +3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 1.5: -200, Under 1.5: 154 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Matheus Camilo -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Matheus Camilo to win by decision

Predicted Score: Decision win for Matheus Camilo after 3 rounds


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