Match Analysis: Tracy Cortez vs Erin Blanchfield – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Game Overview
Erin Blanchfield, the -258 favorite, is a dynamic striker with higher significant strikes landed per minute and strong defensive takedown skills, while Tracy Cortez, the +210 underdog, boasts better takedown accuracy and higher striking accuracy. Both fighters have solid records (13-2 for Blanchfield, 12-2 for Cortez) and comparable physical stats, making this a competitive flyweight bout.
Key Factors to Consider
- Blanchfield has a slightly faster average fight pace and more significant strikes landed per minute (5.24 vs 3.79), but Cortez has better takedown success (47% vs 31%) and striking accuracy (49% vs 44%), suggesting a balanced contest with contrasting styles.
- No prior head-to-head fights between Blanchfield and Cortez, so outcome depends on current form and style matchup advantages.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating they should perform at peak levels.
- Fight takes place at Madison Square Garden with both fighters experienced in high-profile events, minimal travel concerns, and no external disruptions indicated.
- Both fighters are highly motivated to enhance their standing in the flyweight division, with Blanchfield aiming to reinforce her favorite status and Cortez seeking an upset victory to climb rankings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Erin Blanchfield: -258, Tracy Cortez: +210 | Erin Blanchfield | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Erin Blanchfield -3.5: +120, Tracy Cortez +3.5: -165 | Tracy Cortez +3.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -445, Under 2.5: +310 | Under 2.5 rounds | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tracy Cortez -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 199% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 199% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 64.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Erin Blanchfield to win by decision
Predicted Score: Erin Blanchfield wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)