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Sidney Trillo vs. Mackenzie Stiller Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Sidney Trillo vs Mackenzie Stiller – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: June 13, 2025
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Broadbent Arena, Louisville, Kentucky

Game Overview

This Strawweight bout at LFA 210 features Mackenzie Stiller, with a record of 3-1, against Sidney Trillo, who holds a 5-1 record. The fight is anticipated to be competitive, with both fighters having a strong background in MMA.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sidney Trillo has a slightly better record, which might indicate a higher level of experience and possibly better skills. Mackenzie Stiller, however, could have an edge in terms of recent performance or training.
  • There is no previous head-to-head match between these fighters, so it's difficult to assess their past encounters.
  • There are no reported injuries for either fighter at this time.
  • The event is held in Louisville, Kentucky, which might favor neither fighter specifically since neither is from the area.
  • Both fighters are likely highly motivated to win, given the exposure and potential career advancement at stake.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Mackenzie Stiller: 115, Sidney Trillo: -145 Sidney Trillo ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Sidney Trillo 1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Sidney Trillo at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the current odds and the fighters' records, Sidney Trillo is favored to win due to his experience and slightly better record.

Predicted Score: Decision or Late Round Finish in favor of Sidney Trillo


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Sidney Trillo vs. Mackenzie Stiller Prediction

Match Analysis: Sidney Trillo vs Mackenzie Stiller – Prediction Match Details Date: June 13, 2025 Time: 2:00 AM UTC Location: Broadbent Arena, Louisville, Kentucky Game Overview This Strawweight bout at LFA 210 features Mackenzie Stiller, with a record of 3-1, against Sidney Trillo, who holds a 5-1 record. The fight is anticipated to be competitive, […]

June 14, 2025 Mackenzie Stiller MMA/Boxing Sidney Trillo

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Omar El Dafrawy vs. Daniele Miceli Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Omar El Dafrawy vs Daniele Miceli – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-04
  • Time: 4:00 PM UTC
  • Location: The Green Halls, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

The main event of PFL MENA 2 features Omar El Dafrawy (13-5) facing Daniele Miceli (13-6, 1 NC), highlighting a classic striker (El Dafrawy) versus grappler (Miceli) matchup. El Dafrawy is the reigning PFL Middle East and North Africa welterweight champion with a seven-fight winning streak, while Miceli, a 2024 PFL Europe welterweight finalist, brings veteran experience and a submission-heavy skill set. The fight is expected to be a high-stakes battle with potential for an early finish or a tactical prolonged match.

Key Factors to Consider

  • El Dafrawy is coming off a strong winning streak, including a recent TKO win in the PFL MENA welterweight final. Miceli has shown resilience with only one loss in his last six fights and a record featuring multiple submission victories, indicating high grappling proficiency.
  • No previous head-to-head encounters have been recorded between El Dafrawy and Miceli, making this a fresh competitive matchup.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the fight, allowing both to compete at full strength.
  • The fight takes place at The Green Halls in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which is familiar territory for El Dafrawy, who previously won the 2024 title there. The event is part of the PFL MENA 2 card broadcast internationally on ESPN+ and DAZN.
  • El Dafrawy aims to defend his regional dominance and extend his winning streak, motivated by a recent $100,000 payday and home-continent advantage. Miceli seeks redemption after his 2024 PFL Europe final loss, eager to establish himself in the PFL global scene at age 37.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Omar El Dafrawy: -500, Daniele Miceli: 300 Omar El Dafrawy ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread Omar El Dafrawy: -1.5, Daniele Miceli: +1.5 Omar El Dafrawy -1.5 ★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: 1.90, Under 1.5 rounds: 1.90 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Omar El Dafrawy -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Omar El Dafrawy at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Omar El Dafrawy is favored to win, likely by knockout in the first round, leveraging his striking power and momentum. Daniele Miceli's grappling poses a threat if he can avoid early damage, but El Dafrawy's recent form and home advantage provide a significant edge.

Predicted Score: El Dafrawy wins by KO/TKO in Round 1


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Ray Cooper III vs. Dante Schiro Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Ray Cooper III vs Dante Schiro – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 3:00 PM UTC
  • Location: SAHARA Theatre, SAHARA Las Vegas

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA welterweight bout between Ray Cooper III and Dante Schiro is scheduled for three rounds at the Tuff-N-Uff 145 event. Ray Cooper III enters as the favorite due to his aggressive fighting style and greater experience on high-level stages, whereas Dante Schiro is considered the underdog but brings a solid record and competitive spirit. Both fighters have respectable records, with Cooper known for his striking and pace, while Schiro relies on technique and resilience.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Ray Cooper III has demonstrated consistent high-level performance with an aggressive approach in recent fights, maintaining a strong winning momentum. Dante Schiro, with a respectable 24-10-1 record, has shown durability and skill but lacks recent marquee wins against top-tier opponents.
  • There is no significant recorded head-to-head history between Ray Cooper III and Dante Schiro, making this matchup critical for establishing dominance.
  • No reported injuries or fitness concerns have been noted for either fighter ahead of this match.
  • The fight takes place in the SAHARA Theatre in Las Vegas, an environment familiar to Ray Cooper III, which might offer him a slight home advantage. The event timing and venue are standard without any notable adverse external factors.
  • Cooper is motivated to solidify his status as a leading welterweight prospect and extend his winning streak. Schiro aims to upset the favorite and prove his capability on a larger stage, which should enhance his motivation to perform strongly.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ray Cooper III: -150, Dante Schiro: 120 Ray Cooper III ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Ray Cooper III: -1.5 rounds, Dante Schiro: +1.5 rounds Ray Cooper III -1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under over 2.5 rounds: EV, under 2.5 rounds: EV Over 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ray Cooper III -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ray Cooper III at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ray Cooper III is favored to win due to his aggressive style, recent form, and home advantage. The fight is expected to be competitive but likely controlled by Cooper, potentially finishing in the later rounds or via decision.

Predicted Score: Ray Cooper III wins by decision in 3 rounds


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Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 4:30 AM UTC
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

This highly anticipated lightweight title bout at UFC 317 features Ilia Topuria, the former UFC featherweight champion with an undefeated record and recent knockout streak, against Charles Oliveira, the experienced former lightweight champion ranked No. 2. Both fighters bring contrasting styles: Topuria with his explosive striking and perfect record, Oliveira with his seasoned grappling and resilience. The bout is set for June 28, 2025, live from T-Mobile Arena.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Topuria enters with a perfect MMA record and consecutive knockout wins, showcasing powerful and precise striking. Oliveira, despite recent setbacks, has vast experience in the lightweight division, known for his dynamic grappling and submission skills.
  • This is their first direct matchup. Analytical insight from past opponents suggests Oliveira's success may hinge on neutralizing Topuria's aggressive striking early and leveraging ground game opportunities.
  • No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading into the bout. Both appear fully fit and ready to compete.
  • The fight takes place at T-Mobile Arena, a major venue that can influence fighter motivation and performance due to high stakes and large audience pressure. Both fighters have expressed strong intent, with Oliveira promising to aggressively push forward.
  • Topuria is motivated by his undefeated streak and desire to claim the lightweight title. Oliveira seeks redemption and to reclaim his status as champion, motivated to overcome a favored opponent and demonstrate his grit.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ilia Topuria: -455, Charles Oliveira: 350 Ilia Topuria ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Ilia Topuria: -5.5 -370, Charles Oliveira: 5.5 250 Ilia Topuria by more than 5.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 1.5: -145, Under 1.5: 114 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ilia Topuria -15%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Topuria's dominant striking and momentum, combined with Oliveira's experience and grappling threat, the fight is expected to be competitive but with Topuria favored to win by decision or late stoppage. Oliveira's ability to impose a grappling-heavy strategy could extend the fight, but Topuria's power and precision present a significant challenge.

Predicted Score: Ilia Topuria wins via late 3rd round TKO or unanimous decision


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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-28
  • Time: 3:45 AM UTC
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

The UFC 317 co-main event features Alexandre Pantoja defending his flyweight title against Kai Kara-France. This is a highly anticipated matchup with a history dating back to their TUF 24 quarterfinal meeting in 2016 where Pantoja won by decision. Pantoja is the reigning champion riding a seven-fight win streak, known for his elite grappling and submission skills. Kara-France is a powerful striker with notable knockout wins, posing a puncher's threat. The fight is expected to extend into later rounds due to the durability and experience of both fighters.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Pantoja has been dominant in the flyweight division with multiple title defenses and victories over top contenders like Brandon Moreno and Kai Asakura. Kara-France has shown striking power with knockouts over respected opponents but has lost two of his last five fights, indicating some inconsistency.
  • The two first faced each other in 2016 during The Ultimate Fighter 24, where Pantoja won by unanimous decision in a closely contested bout. They have not fought since, making this effectively a rematch with a nearly decade-long gap.
  • No significant injuries reported for either fighter leading up to the fight, indicating both athletes should be at full capacity.
  • The bout is held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, a major venue known for hosting UFC events, providing a high-profile stage. No adverse external factors such as travel or altitude concerns have been reported.
  • Pantoja aims to extend his reign as flyweight champion and maintain his dominant streak. Kara-France is motivated by the chance to claim the title and prove his growth since their last encounter, looking to potentially keep the fight standing to use his striking advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Alexandre Pantoja: -230, Kai Kara-France: 190 Alexandre Pantoja to win ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Alexandre Pantoja: -5.5 -125, Kai Kara-France: +5.5 -105 Pantoja covers -5.5 spread ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under Over: 3.5 -166, Under: 3.5 130 Over 3.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Alexandre Pantoja -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 3.5 -4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Alexandre Pantoja at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alexandre Pantoja is favored to win, most likely by submission due to his superior grappling skills and Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree. While Kara-France poses a knockout threat with his striking, the probability leans towards Pantoja controlling the fight on the ground and securing a finish in the later rounds.

Predicted Score: Alexandre Pantoja wins by submission in Round 4


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Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Beneil Dariush vs Renato Moicano – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 2:30 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC 317 Event

Game Overview

This UFC 317 featherweight bout features Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano. Originally scheduled for UFC 311 but postponed, both fighters come in with motivations linked to climbing rankings and future title contention. Dariush aims to rebound after recent losses, leveraging his submission expertise and tactical preparation. Moicano comes off a setback in a title fight and is determined to avenge past results and regain momentum with improved training and focus.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Beneil Dariush has shown resilience with a 3-2 record in his last five, possessing 5 KO/TKO and 8 submission wins, indicating a well-rounded finishing ability. Renato Moicano, with a record of 20-6-1, emphasizes improved conditioning and training this camp, confident in his ability to overcome Dariush based on enhanced diet and preparation.
  • The fighters have not faced each other before. Their originally scheduled match in January was delayed due to Moicano getting a title shot. Their styles and recent performances suggest a close contest, with Dariush banking on his grappling and Moicano on his striking and conditioning.
  • No reported injuries affecting either fighter for this bout.
  • The fight is part of a major UFC event, UFC 317, adding significant exposure and pressure. Moicano's previous rapid call-up to a title fight and Dariush's strategic planning time provide contrasting preparation backgrounds.
  • Moicano is motivated by the goal to climb rankings and secure another title shot, focusing on improved training and fan support. Dariush is motivated by a desire to decisively beat Moicano following prior cancellations and losses, aiming to prove he remains a top contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Beneil Dariush: -105, Renato Moicano: -115 Beneil Dariush ★★★☆☆ 56%
Spread Beneil Dariush: 3.5 -180, Renato Moicano: -3.5 130 Renato Moicano -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 54%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -110, Under: 2.5 -120 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Beneil Dariush 2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Beneil Dariush is slightly favored based on his well-rounded skills, strategic camp, and fighting style suited to counter Moicano, whose motivation and conditioning improvements make this a competitive matchup. Expect a tightly contested fight with Dariush edging out a decision or submission victory.

Predicted Score: Beneil Dariush wins by decision or submission in a competitive 3-round fight


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Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The bout between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima at UFC 317 is a featherweight matchup featuring two fighters who had difficulties securing opponents, leading to this pairing. Lima, a former Oktagon MMA champion with a 14-1 record, prefers this matchup over his original opponent Jonathan Martinez, aiming to capitalize on Talbott's current hype to boost his UFC standing. This fight is part of the main card during the International Fight Week in Las Vegas, which enhances exposure and stakes for both fighters.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Felipe Lima has demonstrated strong performance with a 14-1 record and two UFC fights, showing resilience and skill transitioning from Oktagon MMA to UFC. Payton Talbott is a young bantamweight contender with hype behind him, likely bringing energy and momentum into the fight. Both fighters have been in training camps for several weeks, with Lima training for about five weeks since his original opponent withdrew.
  • There is no recorded previous fight or head-to-head history between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima, making this their first encounter. This adds an element of unpredictability to the matchup.
  • No current injuries reported affecting either fighter. The only known injury impacted an original opponent (Jonathan Martinez) who withdrew before Lima was matched with Talbott.
  • The fight takes place at UFC 317 during International Fight Week at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The arena is expected to be full, creating a highly charged atmosphere. Both fighters have expressed excitement about performing in front of a large audience, which may influence their motivation and performance.
  • Felipe Lima is motivated to make a strong impression on the main card and leverage a win against a hyped prospect to elevate his UFC status. Talbott has hype behind him and is likely motivated to maintain his upward trajectory and validate expectations.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Felipe Lima: -180, Payton Talbott: 150 Felipe Lima to win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Felipe Lima: -3.5 120, Payton Talbott: 3.5 -165 Felipe Lima -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -195, Under: 2.5 150 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Felipe Lima -14%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 50%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 50% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Lima's experience, strong record, and motivation to capitalize on Talbott's hype, coupled with Talbott's momentum as a young contender, the fight is expected to be competitive. Lima's technical skill and championship background in Oktagon MMA lend him a slight edge in the matchup, suggesting he is the likely winner by close decision or late finish.

Predicted Score: Felipe Lima wins via decision or late-round TKO within 3 rounds


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Joshua Van vs. Brandon Royval Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Joshua Van vs Brandon Royval – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

The UFC 317 flyweight title eliminator pits Joshua Van against Brandon Royval. Van, a rising star fighting frequently with high-level exposure, aims to continue his rapid ascent towards the flyweight title. Royval, a former title contender, brings experience and resilience despite recent opponent changes. Both fighters are highly motivated with little to lose, setting up a competitive and high-stakes matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Joshua Van has fought five times in nine months, showing activity and growing skill at top-tier events. Brandon Royval, although initially scheduled to fight a different opponent, adapted quickly to face Van and maintains confidence in his experience and style compatibility.
  • This fight marks a significant showdown between two top-ranked flyweights with no prior direct matchup history. Both fighters share wins over similar quality opponents, making this a pivotal and evenly matched contest.
  • No current injuries reported for either fighter affecting their preparation or performance.
  • The fight was promoted to the main card after opponent changes, increasing pressure and visibility. Both fighters are competing under the intense spotlight of UFC 317 in Las Vegas, with Van chasing a historic feat by fighting frequently and Royval motivated to stay close to title contention.
  • Joshua Van is highly motivated by the prospect of a flyweight title shot, seeing this fight as a critical step. Brandon Royval is motivated by maintaining his status as a top contender and views Van as a dangerous, hungry opponent with nothing to lose.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Brandon Royval: -105, Joshua Van: -115 Joshua Van to win ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Brandon Royval: 3.5 -200, Joshua Van: -3.5 145 Joshua Van -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -230, Under: 2.5 175 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Joshua Van -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 65%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 65% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Van’s momentum, activity level, and hunger for the title contrasted with Royval’s experience and resilience, the fight is expected to be closely contested but Van’s slight edge in activity and adaptability makes him the favorite to win.

Predicted Score: Joshua Van wins by decision or late-round stoppage around round 3


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Niklas Stolze vs. Jessin Ayari Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Niklas Stolze vs Jessin Ayari – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Barclays Arena, Hamburg

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA bout between Niklas Stolze and Jessin Ayari at OKTAGON 73 is set in the welterweight division (170 lbs). Stolze, fighting out of Germany with a professional record around 13-6, is favored on the moneyline with odds of -240 against Ayari's +165. Both fighters have experience competing in the European MMA circuit, with Stolze known for a balanced finishing ability including 38.5% KO and submission wins. The event will take place at the Barclays Arena in Hamburg on June 29, 2025, with both fighters looking to solidify their status within the promotion.[1][4][5]

Key Factors to Consider

  • Niklas Stolze trains with La Onda Fight Club under coach Sascha Poppendieck, showing a well-rounded skill set with KO, submission, and decision victories. Jessin Ayari's recent fight history indicates competitive form, though detailed stats are less accessible. Stolze's recent KO win in November 2023 highlights current striking sharpness.[5][2]
  • There is no recorded prior head-to-head encounter between Niklas Stolze and Jessin Ayari, making this matchup an initial test for both fighters against each other's styles.[3]
  • No publicly available injury reports or recent fight cancellations suggest either fighter is entering the bout with known physical setbacks. Both appear prepared to compete at full capacity.[1][2]
  • The fight taking place at Barclays Arena in Hamburg may offer a slight home advantage for Stolze, who is German-born and fights out of Germany, potentially boosting local fan support and comfort.[4][5]
  • Niklas Stolze aims to rebound strongly in the welterweight division with a decisive win to enhance his ranking and career trajectory. Jessin Ayari seeks a significant upset to gain momentum and recognition, providing high motivation for a competitive fight.[2][5]

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Niklas Stolze: -240, Jessin Ayari: 165 Niklas Stolze to win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Niklas Stolze: -1.5, Jessin Ayari: +1.5 Niklas Stolze by more than 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under over_1.5_rounds: +110, under_1.5_rounds: -130 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Niklas Stolze -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Niklas Stolze at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Niklas Stolze is favored to win due to a superior recent form, home advantage, and a more versatile finishing ability. The fight is expected to be competitive but Stolze's striking edge and well-rounded skills should secure a decision or possible finish victory.

Predicted Score: Niklas Stolze wins by decision or TKO in round 3


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Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-06-29
  • Time: 1:30 AM UTC
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

The middleweight bout between Jack Hermansson and Gregory Rodrigues is a key preliminary matchup on the UFC 317 card. Hermansson, a veteran gatekeeper to the middleweight elite with a solid striking and grappling pedigree, faces Rodrigues, a younger, more active fighter known for his pressure striking and improving grappling game. Rodrigues enters as the favorite due to his recent activity and three consecutive wins, but Hermansson’s experience and ability to withstand tough opposition make this a compelling contest.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Rodrigues has fought more frequently in the last few years, averaging a fight every 5 months and 25 days with shorter bouts averaging 2.4 rounds. Hermansson has been less active, fighting roughly every 9 months and 25 days with longer fights averaging 3.6 rounds. Rodrigues’ recent form includes a rebound showing more well-rounded skills despite occasional striking vulnerabilities, while Hermansson has remained a reliable, durable competitor despite prolonged inactivity.
  • This is their first meeting; thus, no direct head-to-head history exists between Hermansson and Rodrigues.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout, but Hermansson’s extended inactivity could suggest minor wear or ring rust compared to Rodrigues’ recent fight cadence.
  • The fight takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for both fighters. Rodrigues benefits from momentum and recent ring activity, while Hermansson’s veteran experience might offset any external pressure. The fight is streamed on ESPN+ PPV, heightening stakes with potential broader audience exposure.
  • Rodrigues is motivated to capitalize on his upward trajectory after recent wins and to solidify his status as a middleweight contender. Hermansson aims to use his experience to halt Rodrigues’ rise and reestablish himself among the top middleweights.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gregory Rodrigues: -218, Jack Hermansson: 180 Gregory Rodrigues ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Gregory Rodrigues -3.5: -125, Jack Hermansson +3.5: -105 Gregory Rodrigues -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -145, Under 2.5 rounds: 114 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Gregory Rodrigues -12%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gregory Rodrigues is predicted to win by a method that leverages his pressure striking and improved grappling, likely via decision or late stoppage. Hermansson's resilience suggests it will be competitive, but Rodrigues’ activity and momentum give him the edge.

Predicted Score: Gregory Rodrigues wins by decision or TKO in round 3 or 4


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