Match Analysis: Rodolfo Vieira vs Bo Nickal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City
Game Overview
The middleweight bout between Bo Nickal and Rodolfo Vieira at UFC 322 features two high-level grapplers and finishers with contrasting styles and recent performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bo Nickal holds a 7-1 record, showing a strong striking accuracy (59%) and solid defense (absorbing 2.11 significant strikes per minute). Rodolfo Vieira is 11-3 with an aggressive style focusing on submissions, landing more significant strikes per minute (3.77) but absorbing more (4.12). Nickal's average fight time is shorter (5:08) versus Vieira's longer bouts (9:43).
- No prior head-to-head fights between Nickal and Vieira have occurred, making this a stylistic matchup between Nickal's striking and wrestling versus Vieira's jiu-jitsu and submission prowess.
- No reported injuries to either fighter entering this bout, indicating both are at full strength.
- The fight takes place in Nickal's home country (USA) in a major venue adding potential crowd support. Vieira is slightly older (36 vs. 29) which may affect endurance and recovery.
- Nickal is coming off a recent TKO loss but motivated to rebound against a submission specialist, while Vieira seeks validation as a top middleweight grappler stepping into the UFC spotlight.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bo Nickal -205, Rodolfo Vieira +170 | Bo Nickal | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Bo Nickal -3.5 -105, Rodolfo Vieira +3.5 -125 | Bo Nickal -3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -166, Under 2.5 +130 | Under 2.5 rounds | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rodolfo Vieira -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 38% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bo Nickal to win by decision
Predicted Score: Bo Nickal wins by unanimous decision without significant damage