Niko Ceraglia faces Mirco Negrisoli in a Featherweight bout at Cage Warriors 183. Ceraglia is favored with odds of -1100, while Negrisoli is at 600.
Key Factors to Consider
Niko Ceraglia is favored due to his strong odds, suggesting a perceived advantage in performance. However, specific performance metrics are not available.
There is no recorded head-to-head data between Niko Ceraglia and Mirco Negrisoli.
No injury reports are available for either fighter.
The event takes place in Rome, which might favor Italian fighters, but specific external factors are not detailed.
Both fighters are motivated to win, but specific motivational factors are not detailed.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Niko Ceraglia: -1100, Mirco Negrisoli: 600
Niko Ceraglia
★★★★☆ 85%
Predicted Outcome
Niko Ceraglia is predicted to win based on the odds.
Predicted Score: Niko Ceraglia wins by decision or submission.
0 0
0
Share
Niko Ceraglia vs. Mirco Negrisoli Prediction
Match Analysis: Niko Ceraglia vs Mirco Negrisoli – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-03-08 Time: 4:00 PM UTC Location: PalaPellicone, Rome, Italy Game Overview Niko Ceraglia faces Mirco Negrisoli in a Featherweight bout at Cage Warriors 183. Ceraglia is favored with odds of -1100, while Negrisoli is at 600. Key Factors to Consider Niko Ceraglia is […]
Gabriel Bonfim (18-1-0) faces Randy Brown (20-6-0) in a welterweight main event at UFC Vegas 111. Bonfim is a rising submission threat with elite grappling, while Brown is a veteran with strong striking and cardio. Bonfim is favored by bookmakers, but Brown’s experience and reach could make this competitive.
Key Factors to Consider
Bonfim has won 10 straight, including a split decision over Stephen in his last outing. Brown has gone 3-2 in his last five, with losses to top-tier competition. Bonfim’s recent form is superior, but Brown’s losses came against higher-ranked fighters.
No previous meetings between Bonfim and Brown.
No reported injuries for either fighter.
Bonfim is 35, Brown is 28. Bonfim has a reach disadvantage (72.5” vs 78”), but higher takedown and submission averages. Brown has a slight edge in striking accuracy and volume.
Bonfim is on a long win streak and looking to solidify his status as a top welterweight. Brown is motivated to rebound after recent losses and prove he still belongs in the upper tier.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -170, away: 142
Gabriel Bonfim
★★★★☆ 74%
Spread
home: -13.5, away: 13.5
Gabriel Bonfim -13.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
over: -135, under: 105
Over 2.5
★★★★☆ 72%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Gabriel Bonfim -2%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 13%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Gabriel Bonfim wins by submission in the second round.
Predicted Score: Gabriel Bonfim defeats Randy Brown via submission (rear-naked choke) at 3:12 of Round 2
Top-15 UFC flyweight Matt Schnell (17-9, 1 NC) and Joseph Morales (14-2) meet at UFC Vegas 111 in a pivotal matchup for the division. Schnell is a veteran, high-volume striker with submission savvy but recent durability questions, while Morales is younger, improving, and excels in scrambling and submission hunting.
Key Factors to Consider
Schnell is the more active striker (4.13 significant strikes/minute vs. Morales' 2.02), but has lost all seven UFC fights by stoppage; Morales is on a run of strong form, averaging nearly 3 submission attempts per fight, and has shown superior durability and finishing instincts.
No direct H2H, but Morales' grappling and scrambling are stylistically troublesome for Schnell, who has been susceptible to being worn down and finished.
No recent injury concerns reported for either fighter.
Card placement is pre-lim at UFC Apex; no crowd or travel concerns. Morales is younger and likely fresher; Schnell is 35, potentially nearing the tail of his prime.
Morales is rising, motivated to climb the division; Schnell is fighting to avoid a potential release after going 1-3 in last 4, with all losses by stoppage.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Joseph Morales -425 / Matt Schnell +330
Joseph Morales wins
★★★★☆ 78%
Spread
Joseph Morales -7.5 (-165) / Matt Schnell +7.5 (+120)
Joseph Morales (-7.5) covers
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 1.5 (-175) / Under 1.5 (+135)
Over 1.5 rounds hits
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Joseph Morales -4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 2%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Joseph Morales' superior durability, superior finishing threat, and momentum will see him break through Schnell's early activity, dominate the scrambles, and either submit or outwork Schnell late for a clear decision.
Predicted Score: We project a competitive (possibly back-and-forth) opening but for Morales to wear Schnell down and win in the 2nd half of the fight, likely by submission, or a clear 29-28/30-27 decision.
Lightweight bout between Chris Padilla and Ismael Bonfim at UFC Vegas 111, featuring two orthodox fighters with Padilla slightly taller and longer wingspan. Both have aggressive styles but Bonfim is a -198 favorite on moneyline with strong striking accuracy and defense.
Key Factors to Consider
Padilla is 16-6 with a gritty, pressure fighting style leading to 16 of 22 fights ending inside the distance. Bonfim is 20-5 with higher significant strike output and defense. Padilla is more aggressive and finishes fights inside distance whereas Bonfim has more consistent striking defense and accuracy.
No previous direct matchups between Padilla and Bonfim recorded.
Bonfim recently suffered a first knockout loss in his 14-year career, which may impact confidence and risk taking. Padilla has no reported recent injuries.
Fight at UFC Apex in Las Vegas with no notable external disruptions; Padilla an underdog with strong mental fortitude having won UFC fights as an underdog previously.
Padilla eager to continue exceeding expectations, coming off a string of UFC underdog wins, highly motivated to sustain momentum. Bonfim likely motivated to rebound from recent KO loss but may fight more cautiously.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Chris Padilla: +164, Ismael Bonfim: -198
Ismael Bonfim
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Chris Padilla +3.5: -135, Ismael Bonfim -3.5: 100
Ismael Bonfim -3.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
Over 2.5 rounds: -125, Under 2.5 rounds: -105
Under 2.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Ismael Bonfim -7%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 11%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ismael Bonfim moneyline win
Predicted Score: Ismael Bonfim wins by decision in 3 rounds
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Game Overview
Christian Leroy Duncan faces Marco Tulio Silva in a Middleweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 111. Duncan is a tall, switch-hitting striker with knockout power, while Silva is a resilient, high-volume striker with strong grappling defense. The fight is a clash of styles, with Duncan's aggression and Silva's durability and counter-striking.
Key Factors to Consider
Duncan has shown marked improvement, finishing Eryk Anders in August with a dominant striking display. Silva is undefeated (14-1) and lands at a high rate (7.54 sig strikes/min) but has never faced a fighter with Duncan's reach and power. Duncan lands 4.83 sig strikes/min and defends 51% of strikes, while Silva defends 61% but absorbs more volume.
No prior H2H matchup exists between the two fighters.
No reported injuries for either fighter.
The fight takes place in Las Vegas, neutral site. Both fighters are in their prime (Duncan 30, Silva 31). No weather or travel issues.
Duncan is on a two-fight win streak and looking to break into the upper tier. Silva is undefeated in the UFC and motivated to maintain his record and climb the rankings.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: 154, away: -185
Marco Tulio Silva
Not available
Spread
home: 3.5 -135, away: -3.5 100
Marco Tulio Silva -3.5
Not available
Over/under
over: 2.5 -125, under: 2.5 -105
Over 2.5
Not available
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Marco Tulio Silva -8%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 17%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Marco Tulio Silva wins by decision. Silva's high-volume striking and superior defense will neutralize Duncan's aggression over three rounds. Duncan's knockout power is a threat, but Silva's resilience and ability to absorb and return fire make him the safer pick for a decision victory.
Predicted Score: Marco Tulio Silva wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Muslim Salikhov faces Uros Medic in a welterweight UFC matchup. Salikhov is a seasoned striker known for dynamic stand-up, while Medic is a powerful knockout artist with recent momentum, having defeated Gilbert Urbina via first-round KO in August 2025.
Key Factors to Consider
Salikhov has a versatile striking style but recent performances show less finishing power, whereas Medic has demonstrated significant knockout capability recently, boosting his confidence and form.
No prior head-to-head matchup exists between Salikhov and Medic, making this a first encounter with limited direct comparative data.
No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading into this bout.
Fight takes place at UFC Vegas 111, a neutral venue with no significant travel disadvantages for either fighter. Both competitors have shown robustness in similar environments.
Medic's recent KO victory and rising momentum provide high motivation; Salikhov seeks to re-establish himself against a younger contender, adding personal stakes for redemption.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
-148 for Uros Medic, +124 for Muslim Salikhov
Uros Medic
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Muslim Salikhov +3.5 at 105, Uros Medic -3.5 at -140
Uros Medic -3.5
★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under
Over 1.5 rounds at 140, Under 1.5 rounds at -180
Over 1.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 62%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Uros Medic -4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 44%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Uros Medic to win via moneyline
Predicted Score: Uros Medic wins by KO/TKO late in round 2 or early round 3
Hyder Amil and Jamall Emmers clash in a featherweight contest at UFC Vegas 111. Amil enters as the favorite with an 11-1 record, known for his high output striking and pressure style. Emmers, a more experienced 21-8 veteran with a reach advantage, relies on wrestling and durability but tends to absorb more damage. The fight is expected to be a tactical striking and pace battle.
Key Factors to Consider
Hyder Amil boasts a higher significant striking rate (6.84/min) and accuracy (57%) compared to Emmers (5.45/min, 49%). Amil also absorbs slightly more strikes but counters with high volume and finishing ability. Emmers' experience includes a wrestling base and higher strike defense (56% absorption rate), making him resilient.
No known direct prior matchups between Amil and Emmers, so analysis relies on style and statistical matchup.
No recent injuries reported for either fighter, both are reportedly fully fit for this bout.
Fight held at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, neutral venue advantageous to both. No external disruptions or unusual factors affecting preparation.
Amil, at 35, is motivated to maintain his rising trajectory and avenge a recent KO loss by returning with a strong performance. Emmers, at 36, looks to leverage his experience and notch a significant win to revive his ranking.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Hyder_Amil: -147, Jamall_Emmers: +127
Hyder Amil
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Hyder_Amil_-3.5: -110, Jamall_Emmers_+3.5: -120
Hyder Amil -3.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over_1.5: -145, Under_1.5: +110
Over 1.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 68%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Hyder Amil 1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 5%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hyder Amil to win on the moneyline, via decision or late stoppage, with the fight going over 1.5 rounds.
Predicted Score: Hyder Amil wins by decision or TKO within 3 rounds
Ricky Simon faces Raoni Barcelos in a bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 111. Simon is a high-volume wrestler with relentless pressure, while Barcelos is a dangerous striker with recent momentum and strong striking stats. The fight is expected to be a high-paced, tactical battle with Simon’s wrestling likely dictating the pace.
Key Factors to Consider
Simon averages over 5 takedowns per fight and controls opponents with top pressure. Barcelos lands nearly 5 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy, but absorbs more damage than Simon. Simon defends 61% of strikes, Barcelos 60%.
No prior H2H matchup exists between the two fighters.
No public injury reports for either fighter.
Fighting at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, both fighters are in familiar territory. No major weather or venue issues expected.
Barcelos is on a two-fight win streak with decisive victories, seeking to climb the rankings. Simon is motivated to rebound and reestablish himself as a top contender.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -175, away: 145
Ricky Simon
★★★★☆ 74%
Spread
home: -3.5, away: 3.5
Ricky Simon -3.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
over: -250, under: 190
Over 2.5
★★★★☆ 78%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Ricky Simon 7%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2.5 5%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Ricky Simon at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ricky Simon wins by decision, using his wrestling to control Barcelos and neutralize his striking over three rounds.
Predicted Score: Ricky Simon wins by unanimous decision, 30-27, 29-28, 29-28
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Game Overview
Bantamweight UFC bout between Mayra Bueno Silva and Jacqueline Cavalcanti, with Cavalcanti favored by sportsbooks based on recent form and odds.
Key Factors to Consider
Jacqueline Cavalcanti has been dominant in recent fights, notably defeating Julia Avila via unanimous decision and entering as the largest favorite on the card; Mayra Bueno Silva has a solid record but is the underdog here.
No direct prior matchups recorded between Bueno Silva and Cavalcanti.
No current injury reports affecting either fighter at the time of analysis.
Fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas—neutral venue with no reported travel or external distractions.
Both fighters are highly motivated to advance in the bantamweight division, but Cavalcanti’s recent winning streak and dominant performances give her an edge in confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Cavalcanti -250, Bueno Silva +205
Jacqueline Cavalcanti
★★★★☆ 74%
Spread
Cavalcanti -3.5 @ 120, Bueno Silva +3.5 @ -165
Jacqueline Cavalcanti -3.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over 2.5 -375, Under 2.5 +270
Under 2.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Jacqueline Cavalcanti -4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.5 159%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 159% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 58.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jacqueline Cavalcanti to win on moneyline
Predicted Score: Jacqueline Cavalcanti wins by unanimous decision within 3 rounds
Josh Hokit faces Max Gimenis in a heavyweight MMA bout at UFC Vegas 111. Hokit is making his promotional debut with an undefeated 6-0 record, showcasing dominant finishes mostly in the first round, blending strong wrestling and evolving striking. Gimenis comes in as underdog with less momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
Hokit is undefeated (6-0) with 6 finishes, mostly early stoppages, coming off a TKO win in his last fight. Gimenis has a less impressive recent form and is generally seen as the underdog.
No recorded head-to-head matchups between Hokit and Gimenis.
No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
Hokit is debuting in UFC after a strong DWCS performance, carrying high momentum and support. The bout takes place at UFC Apex, a neutral venue with no home advantage.
Hokit is highly motivated to establish himself with a strong UFC debut. Gimenis is motivated but disadvantaged by market perception and momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
home: -425, away: +330
Josh Hokit
★★★★☆ 78%
Spread
home: -310, away: +215
Josh Hokit -3.5 rounds
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
over: +120, under: -154
Over 1.5 rounds
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Josh Hokit -1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 1.5 32%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Josh Hokit to win on the moneyline and cover the -3.5 round spread; fight to go over 1.5 rounds.
Predicted Score: Josh Hokit wins via TKO in Round 2
