Match Analysis: Nauzet Trujillo vs Liam Nolan – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-02
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Lumpinee Stadium, Bangkok
Game Overview
Originally scheduled as a lightweight Muay Thai rematch, Liam Nolan's opponent was changed to Abolfazl Alipourandi after Nauzet Trujillo withdrew. However, based on the query's focus on Trujillo vs. Nolan, this analysis assumes the original matchup is active (contrary to live updates). Historical context: Trujillo defeated Nolan via unanimous decision in February 2024 with a second-round knockdown, but Nolan returns with a revamped team (Michael Wakeling, Danny Beevor) and renewed focus after CEO Chatri Sityodtong personally persuaded him out of retirement[1][3][5].
Key Factors to Consider
- Trujillo holds a 1-2 ONE Championship record (losses to top-tier competition). Nolan, a former WBC Muay Thai champion, rebuilt his training camp but lacks recent in-competition data due to retirement[1][2][5].
- Trujillo leads 1-0; utilized forward pressure and clinch dominance in their first meeting. Nolan claims improved overall skills but admits Trujillo's danger[1][2][4].
- Nolan previously fought through a broken bone during their first match. No current injury reports, but Trujillo's withdrawal reason remains unspecified[1][3].
- Venue familiarity (Lumpinee Stadium) neutral. Late opponent changes likely introduce preparation instability (though Nolan's new team appears structured)[3][5].
- Nolan seeks redemption and title contention. Trujillo aims to solidify standing in the division after mixed results[1][2][5].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Liam Nolan (-240), Nauzet Trujillo (+165) | Liam Nolan | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Liam Nolan -8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Liam Nolan at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nolan by decision (if fight proceeds as queried). Higher technical output expected from rebuilt striking arsenal offsets Trujillo's pressure-based approach.
Predicted Score: Unavailable (non-scoring sport). Method prediction: Nolan via unanimous decision (if match occurred). Reality note: Nolan now faces Alipourandi per latest updates[3][5].