Match Analysis: Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 5:45 PM UTC
- Location: Etihad Arena
Game Overview
Nasrat Haqparast and Quillan Salkilld face off in a highly anticipated lightweight bout at UFC 321. Haqparast brings veteran experience with 14 UFC fights under his belt, showcasing sharp boxing and durability. Salkilld is an up-and-coming fighter known for his athleticism and evolving striking and grappling skills, but his relative inexperience and gas tank limitations could be tested.
Key Factors to Consider
- Haqparast is on a four-fight winning streak showing consistent finishing ability and composure under pressure. Salkilld impressed in his last fight with a mixed striking and wrestling approach but has less UFC experience overall.
- No prior matchups between these fighters.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter going into the bout.
- Fight takes place at neutral Etihad Arena with no apparent home advantage. Both fighters motivated to solidify standings in the lightweight division.
- Haqparast looks to extend his UFC momentum and leverage his experience to outsmart the younger opponent. Salkilld aims to make a breakout statement and prove his evolving skill set against a seasoned veteran.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nasrat Haqparast: -110, Quillan Salkilld: -110 | Nasrat Haqparast | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Nasrat Haqparast -3.5: +165, Quillan Salkilld +3.5: -230 | Quillan Salkilld +3.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -215, Under 2.5 rounds: +165 | Under 2.5 rounds | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nasrat Haqparast 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 59% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Nasrat Haqparast to win
Predicted Score: Nasrat Haqparast wins via decision after 3 rounds