Match Analysis: Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Game Overview
Middleweight MMA bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Dustin Stoltzfus as part of UFC Noche 3. Gastelum is the betting favorite with a strong striking profile and reach disadvantage, while Stoltzfus offers a longer reach and slightly better striking accuracy. Both athletes are same age, with Gastelum seeking to recover from recent losses and Stoltzfus aiming to regain momentum after a defeat.
Key Factors to Consider
- Kelvin Gastelum holds a 20-10 record with a tendency for high-volume striking but has had recent setbacks. Dustin Stoltzfus is 16-7, showing durable defense and decent striking accuracy but lacks consistent finishing power.
- No recorded previous head-to-head matchups between Gastelum and Stoltzfus, making stylistic analysis and recent form critical.
- No significant injuries publicly reported affecting either fighter going into the matchup.
- Fighting at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, an even venue without clear home advantage. Both fighters are familiar with competing in similar environments.
- Gastelum motivated to rebound from recent losses and maintain relevance in middleweight rankings. Stoltzfus aims to build momentum after a recent loss, making him a dangerous underdog.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Gastelum -250, Stoltzfus +205 | Kelvin Gastelum | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Gastelum -3.5 -120, Stoltzfus +3.5 -110 | Kelvin Gastelum -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 -215, Under 2.5 +165 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Kelvin Gastelum -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 59% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision
Predicted Score: Kelvin Gastelum wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds
This Pick Releases in 172 Minutes!
Unlock NOW by Sharing This Post!