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Jesus Santos Aguilar vs. Luis Gurule Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jesus Santos Aguilar vs Luis Gurule – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 9:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Flyweight bout between aggressive striker Jesus Santos Aguilar and technically skilled wrestler Luis Gurule.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Aguilar is known for forward pressure striking and KO power but has a weaker takedown defense. Gurule boasts strong wrestling skills and comparable striking, making him a balanced and resilient fighter.
  • No recorded previous meetings between Aguilar and Gurule, making this a fresh matchup with no direct H2H data.
  • No reported recent injuries for either fighter, both appear healthy and fight-ready.
  • Fight is at a neutral venue with no significant altitude or climate issues. Both fighters are performing in their prime age range.
  • Gurule (10-1) motivated to maintain near-perfect record; Aguilar (11-3) looking to rebound and prove knockout resilience after previous hard fight.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Jesus Santos Aguilar: +170, Luis Gurule: -205 Luis Gurule ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Jesus Santos Aguilar +3.5: -125, Luis Gurule -3.5: -105 Luis Gurule -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -166, Under 2.5 rounds: +130 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Luis Gurule -11%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Luis Gurule to win by decision

Predicted Score: Luis Gurule wins via decision (3 rounds)


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Jesus Santos Aguilar vs. Luis Gurule Prediction

Match Analysis: Jesus Santos Aguilar vs Luis Gurule – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-09-13 Time: 9:15 PM UTC Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio Game Overview Flyweight bout between aggressive striker Jesus Santos Aguilar and technically skilled wrestler Luis Gurule. Key Factors to Consider Aguilar is known for forward pressure striking and KO power but […]

Jesus Santos Aguilar Luis Gurule MMA/Boxing September 13, 2025

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Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 11:10 PM UTC
  • Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Middleweight MMA bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Dustin Stoltzfus as part of UFC Noche 3. Gastelum is the betting favorite with a strong striking profile and reach disadvantage, while Stoltzfus offers a longer reach and slightly better striking accuracy. Both athletes are same age, with Gastelum seeking to recover from recent losses and Stoltzfus aiming to regain momentum after a defeat.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Kelvin Gastelum holds a 20-10 record with a tendency for high-volume striking but has had recent setbacks. Dustin Stoltzfus is 16-7, showing durable defense and decent striking accuracy but lacks consistent finishing power.
  • No recorded previous head-to-head matchups between Gastelum and Stoltzfus, making stylistic analysis and recent form critical.
  • No significant injuries publicly reported affecting either fighter going into the matchup.
  • Fighting at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, an even venue without clear home advantage. Both fighters are familiar with competing in similar environments.
  • Gastelum motivated to rebound from recent losses and maintain relevance in middleweight rankings. Stoltzfus aims to build momentum after a recent loss, making him a dangerous underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gastelum -250, Stoltzfus +205 Kelvin Gastelum ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Gastelum -3.5 -120, Stoltzfus +3.5 -110 Kelvin Gastelum -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 -215, Under 2.5 +165 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Kelvin Gastelum -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 59%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision

Predicted Score: Kelvin Gastelum wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds


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Quang Le vs. Santiago Luna Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Quang Le vs Santiago Luna – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 10:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA

Game Overview

In this UFC Bantamweight matchup, Santiago Luna makes his UFC debut at 6-0 MMA record with a 100% finish rate, while Quang Le, with a 9-2 record and 1-2 in UFC fights, looks to rebound after an inconsistent UFC start.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Luna has won all 6 pro MMA fights by finish, demonstrating strong finishing ability (2 KOs, 4 submissions). Le has solid striking but lower accuracy and defense, offset by high takedown defense (100%) and solid grappling.
  • No previous head-to-head encounters between Luna and Le.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
  • Fight takes place at Frost Bank Center in Luna's UFC debut; Luna may have added motivation to impress. Le may face pressure to stabilize UFC performance record.
  • Luna is highly motivated to make a statement in his UFC debut with flawless finishing record; Le aims to improve UFC standing after early setbacks.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Quang Le: +114, Santiago Luna: -135 Santiago Luna ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Quang Le +3.5: -155, Santiago Luna -3.5: +115 Santiago Luna -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over 2.5: -125, Under 2.5: -105 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Santiago Luna -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 21%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Santiago Luna to win by finish

Predicted Score: Santiago Luna wins by submission or KO in Round 2


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Jose Daniel Medina vs. Dusko Todorovic Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jose Daniel Medina vs Dusko Todorovic – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 10:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX

Game Overview

Middleweight UFC matchup between Jose Daniel Medina and Dusko Todorovic featuring contrasting striking volume and accuracy, with Todorovic favored by sportsbooks due to his higher significant strike rate and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Dusko Todorovic has a record of 12-6 with a high output of 4.79 significant strikes per minute landing at 57% accuracy, while Medina is 11-5 with 2.18 significant strikes per minute at 36% accuracy; Todorovic's superior striking volume and defense advantage imply better recent form.
  • No direct head-to-head matchups recorded between these two fighters.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both appear physically prepared.
  • Fight takes place at a neutral venue in San Antonio, no notable external factors affecting either fighter.
  • Both fighters motivated to improve UFC rankings; Todorovic looking to capitalize on momentum with more finishes, Medina aiming to prove himself as an underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: +270, away: -340 Dusko Todorovic ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread DuskoTodrovic: -5.5 @ -120, JoseMedina: +5.5 @ -110 Dusko Todorovic -5.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under over: 1.5 @ -250, under: 1.5 @ 190 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Dusko Todorovic -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 -13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Dusko Todorovic at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Dusko Todorovic to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Dusko Todorovic wins by decision or late finish, likely after Round 2


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Claudio Puelles vs. Joaquim Silva Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 10:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

UFC lightweight bout featuring Claudio Puelles (29, 13-4-0) versus Joaquim Silva (36, 13-6-0), both southpaws with contrasting styles. Puelles known for solid submission game and defensive striking, Silva for higher volume striking and durability.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Puelles is coming off a loss after a long layoff, but historically durable and has a high submission threat. Silva has been more active recently but on a two-fight losing streak; Silva lands more significant strikes per minute but absorbs more as well.
  • No direct head-to-head fights found between Puelles and Silva, making this a stylistic clash rather than familiarity-based.
  • No current reported injuries for either fighter impacting performance.
  • Fight is at a neutral venue; no home advantage for either. Both fighters have similar southpaw stance, minimizing stance-related advantages.
  • Puelles looks motivated to rebound after recent setbacks and long layoffs; Silva seeks to end a losing streak and stabilize his UFC trajectory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Claudio Puelles: -112, Joaquim Silva: -108 Joaquim Silva ★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread Claudio Puelles -3.5: +140, Joaquim Silva +3.5: -195 Joaquim Silva +3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -140, Under 2.5 rounds: +110 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Joaquim Silva -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Joaquim Silva by Decision

Predicted Score: Joaquim Silva wins via 3-round decision


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Tatiana Suarez vs. Amanda Lemos Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 9:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Tatiana Suarez faces Amanda Lemos in a highly anticipated strawweight bout, with Suarez favored due to superior striking accuracy and defense, recent competitive form, and motivation to rebound after her first career loss.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Suarez holds an 11-1 record with a high striking accuracy (61%) and strong defense, allowing only 1.58 significant strikes per minute. Lemos is 15-4-1, landing 54% of strikes and absorbing 3.46 per minute, indicating Suarez's dominance in striking exchanges.
  • No prior head-to-head fights recorded between Suarez and Lemos.
  • No current injury reports affecting either fighter as of fight week.
  • Fight takes place at a neutral venue; no external environmental or travel-related disadvantages reported.
  • Suarez is highly motivated to rebound from her first career loss and reassert her position as a title contender. Lemos aims to break into the top tier with a win, making the motivation relatively even but with Suarez slightly favored due to recent title experience.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Tatiana Suarez -455 / Amanda Lemos +350 Tatiana Suarez ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Tatiana Suarez -7.5 (-140) / Amanda Lemos +7.5 (+100) Tatiana Suarez -7.5 ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds (+100) / Under 2.5 rounds (-130) Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Tatiana Suarez -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tatiana Suarez to win by decision

Predicted Score: Suarez wins by unanimous decision (3-0 rounds)


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Zachary Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Zachary Reese vs Sedriques Dumas – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 8:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas

Game Overview

Middleweight bout between Zachary Reese (9-2) and Sedriques Dumas (10-3) with contrasting styles: Reese is a switch fighter with higher striking output, while Dumas is orthodox with strong strike defense.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Reese has a higher significant strike rate (4.28/min) and better strike accuracy (54%) compared to Dumas (2.10/min, 45%). Reese also absorbs more strikes (2.99/min) versus Dumas (2.50/min), but Dumas boasts superior strike defense (55% vs 43%).
  • No previous head-to-head fights recorded between Reese and Dumas.
  • No significant injury reports for either fighter before the bout.
  • Fight takes place at a neutral venue; no notable external influences detected. Dumas appears motivated despite financial hardship, which could impact focus.
  • Both fighters motivated to climb rankings; Reese’s recent momentum and style advantage may give him psychological edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -238, away: +195 Zachary Reese ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread home: -230, away: +165 Zachary Reese -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under over: +124, under: -160 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Zachary Reese -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Zachary Reese to win on moneyline and cover the spread with a fight total going under 1.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Zachary Reese wins via TKO in round 2


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Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Alex Hernandez Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Alex Hernandez – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 8:00 PM UTC
  • Location: San Antonio, Texas

Game Overview

Lightweight bout between Carlos Diego Ferreira and Alexander Hernandez with Ferreira as a slight favorite by odds. Hernandez is fighting at home in San Antonio, which could influence performance.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Ferreira has shown more consistency in his recent performances, with several wins disrupting top contenders and good striking and grappling balance. Hernandez, while talented, has been less consistent and coming off some mixed results.
  • Neither fighter appears to have prior head-to-head matchups, making this fight a fresh contest without direct past data.
  • No significant injury reports have been noted for either fighter prior to the bout.
  • Hernandez fighting in his hometown of San Antonio could provide motivation and fan support, but Ferreira is experienced in handling hostile environments.
  • Hernandez is motivated to defend his home turf and make a statement in front of a home crowd, but Ferreira is motivated by climbing lightweight rankings and redemption after previous setbacks.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Alex Hernandez: -105, Carlos Diego Ferreira: -115 Carlos Diego Ferreira ★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread Alex Hernandez +3.5: -195, Carlos Diego Ferreira -3.5: 140 Carlos Diego Ferreira -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 52%
Over/under Over 2.5: -135, Under 2.5: 105 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Alex Hernandez 8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Carlos Diego Ferreira to win by decision

Predicted Score: Carlos Diego Ferreira wins by unanimous decision after three rounds


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Alessandro Costa vs. Alden Coria Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Alessandro Costa vs Alden Coria – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 7:50 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Fight Night Venue (unspecified)

Game Overview

Alessandro Costa is the strong favorite against Alden Coria based on recent form, odds history, and expert consensus. Costa's power and finishing ability have been demonstrated with early finishes highlighted in betting markets. Coria, while experienced, is positioned as the underdog with less probability of winning.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Costa has maintained strong recent form with consistent winning odds movement indicating betting market confidence, including multiple early KO/TKO and submission finishes in round 1 available as prop odds.
  • No documented direct head-to-head fights between Alessandro Costa and Alden Coria, requiring reliance on form and general skill comparisons.
  • No reported injuries to either fighter that would materially affect performance or betting evaluation.
  • Sharp money movement has favored Alden Coria on some books, indicating value perception, but overall market consensus still heavily favors Costa.
  • Costa's position as a favored rising contender and motivation to establish dominance in UFC likely higher; Coria seeking to prove value as an underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Costa: -410, Coria: +320 Alessandro Costa ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Costa -3.5 (-195), Coria +3.5 (140) Alessandro Costa -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-115), Under 2.5 (-115) Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Alessandro Costa -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alessandro Costa to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Alessandro Costa wins by KO/TKO in Round 1


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Alice Pereira vs. Montserrat Rendon Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Alice Pereira vs Montserrat Rendon – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 7:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

UFC women's Bantamweight prelim fight between undefeated rising prospect Alice Pereira (5-0) and experienced contender Montserrat Rendon (6-1). Pereira is debuting in UFC showcasing high finishing rate, while Rendon is a seasoned competitor with one loss.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Alice Pereira holds a perfect 5-0 record with a high KO finish rate (66.7%), showing aggressive striking and finishing ability. Montserrat Rendon is 6-1, more experienced but with a lower finish rate, often going to decision.
  • No prior head-to-head meetings between Pereira and Rendon, making styles and form decisive.
  • No known injuries reported for either fighter, both appear fully fit for the matchup.
  • Fight is at UFC prelims in San Antonio, neutral venue favoring neither. Pereira is making UFC debut which may add motivation.
  • Pereira highly motivated to impress in UFC debut, while Rendon aims to maintain rank and prove superiority over newcomer.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Alice Pereira -148, Montserrat Rendon +124 Alice Pereira ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Alice Pereira -3.5 +150, Montserrat Rendon +3.5 -205 Montserrat Rendon +3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 -280, Under 2.5 +210 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Alice Pereira -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 120%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 120% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 57.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alice Pereira to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Alice Pereira wins by 2nd round KO


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