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Elijah Smith vs. Toshiomi Kazama Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 8:00 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Elijah Smith (8-1) faces Toshiomi Kazama (11-4) in a bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 109. Smith is younger with a significant striking volume advantage, while Kazama shows higher strike accuracy.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Smith has a strong recent form with 8 wins and only 1 loss, showing a higher pace and volume in striking (3.83 significant strikes per minute) compared to Kazama (1.72). Kazama has more career fights and slightly better accuracy (53% vs 41%).
  • No known direct prior matchups between Elijah Smith and Toshiomi Kazama.
  • No reported injuries on either fighter leading into the bout.
  • Fight is at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, neutral ground with no clear home advantage. Both fighters orthodox stance, with Smith having a 2-inch reach advantage.
  • Smith, at 22 years old, appears to be rising fast with motivation to solidify status in the division. Kazama, at 28, seeks to leverage experience to upset the rising prospect.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Smith -700, Kazama +500 Elijah Smith ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Smith -1.5 / Kazama +1.5 (implied) Elijah Smith -1.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 1.5 +100, Under 1.5 -130 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Elijah Smith -11%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Elijah Smith moneyline win

Predicted Score: Elijah Smith via 2nd round TKO


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Elijah Smith vs. Toshiomi Kazama Prediction

Match Analysis: Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-08-09 Time: 8:00 PM UTC Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas Game Overview Elijah Smith (8-1) faces Toshiomi Kazama (11-4) in a bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 109. Smith is younger with a significant striking volume advantage, while Kazama shows higher strike accuracy. Key […]

August 9, 2025 Elijah Smith MMA/Boxing Toshiomi Kazama

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Radley Da Silva vs. George Mangos Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Radley Da Silva vs George Mangos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-13
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Florida, USA

Game Overview

Radley Da Silva and George Mangos face off in a closely matched men's featherweight bout at Dana White's Contender Series. Both fighters have strong records with Da Silva at 7-1-0 and Mangos undefeated at 7-0-0. Da Silva carries a slight experience edge with an additional loss yet more fights, whereas Mangos is younger and undefeated. Physical stats are similar except Daim Silva weighs in heavier at 145 lbs versus Mangos’ 125 lbs, which might be a data anomaly.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Radley Da Silva’s recent form shows good strike volume and ground control but has one loss indicating some vulnerability. George Mangos is undefeated, showing consistent performance and steady improvements throughout his 7 fight career.
  • No prior head-to-head fights recorded between Da Silva and Mangos, making this a fresh matchup with unpredictability.
  • No reported injuries affecting either fighter, both appear fully fit for the contest.
  • Fight takes place at Dana White’s Contender Series in Florida, which is a high-stakes environment encouraging maximal performance to secure UFC contracts.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated to impress on this platform to secure UFC contracts, slightly favoring Mangos who is younger and undefeated, carrying momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline George Mangos: -130, Radley Da Silva: +100 George Mangos ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread George Mangos -1.5: -120, Radley Da Silva +1.5: 100 George Mangos -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: 110, Under 1.5 rounds: -130 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline George Mangos -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: George Mangos at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

George Mangos to win on the moneyline

Predicted Score: George Mangos wins by TKO/Decision in Round 2


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Jimmy Drago vs. Ty Miller Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jimmy Drago vs Ty Miller – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-13
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

Welterweight bout between seasoned finisher Jimmy Drago and undefeated rising talent Ty Miller. Drago brings solid wrestling and powerful boxing with finishing capability, whereas Miller offers youth, speed, power, and an undefeated record with growing potential.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Jimmy Drago has a 7-2-0 record with experience and finishing power, showing good wrestling and clinch work. Ty Miller is undefeated at 5-0-0 with one no contest, younger and fast, with powerful hands and rising skill level.
  • No recorded previous head-to-head matchup between the fighters.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter going into the bout.
  • Fight takes place at Dana White's Contender Series in Las Vegas, favoring neither fighter significantly; both fight under similar conditions and motivation to make UFC roster.
  • Ty Miller is highly motivated as an undefeated rising prospect looking to cement his status. Jimmy Drago is motivated to maintain his experience edge and prove his finishing ability against a young contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Jimmy Drago: +155, Ty Miller: -185 Ty Miller ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Ty Miller -1.5: -120, Jimmy Drago +1.5: +100 Ty Miller -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ty Miller -14%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ty Miller at -14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ty Miller to win by decision

Predicted Score: Ty Miller wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds


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Ilian Bouafia vs. Neemias Santana Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Ilian Bouafia vs Neemias Santana – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-13
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Undisclosed Venue, Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

The matchup features Ilian Bouafia, a sharp and technically improving striker known for his powerful straight left, versus Neemias Santana, a slick kickboxer with solid low kicks and good power but a defensive tendency of keeping his hands low. Both fighters are strong strikers with potential UFC futures.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bouafia has shown more noticeable improvement recently and is considered more technical; Santana offers strong endurance and power but risks exposure with defensive gaps.
  • No known previous head-to-head matchups between Bouafia and Santana; this will be their first encounter.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter heading into the bout.
  • Fight takes place on Dana White's Contender Series platform, which may increase motivation especially for Bouafia, who is viewed as highly technical and eager to impress.
  • Both fighters are motivated to secure UFC contracts, but Bouafia's noted technical improvements suggest higher preparation and mental readiness.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ilian Bouafia: -210, Neemias Santana: 170 Ilian Bouafia ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Bouafia -1.5 rounds: -150, Santana +1.5 rounds: 130 Bouafia -1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: 120, Under 2.5 rounds: -140 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ilian Bouafia -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ilian Bouafia at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ilian Bouafia to win by decision

Predicted Score: Bouafia wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds


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Murtaza Talha vs. Baysangur Susurkaev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Murtaza Talha vs Baysangur Susurkaev – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-13
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Contender Series 2025 Venue (Exact location not specified)

Game Overview

Murtaza Talha (7-1) faces undefeated Baysangur Susurkaev (8-0) on short notice at middleweight in DWCS 2025. Talha is the more experienced fighter with strong wrestling and aggressive ground-and-pound but has had an ACL injury and loss in CS before. Susurkaev is a fast-finishing knockout artist, unbeaten, taking the fight on short notice. Both fighters have a combined 12 first-round finishes, with contrasting styles presenting an intriguing matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Talha has a 7-1 record with 7 finishes (4 KOs, 3 subs) but recently struggled with an ACL injury and contested a higher weight class previously. Susurkaev is 8-0 with 7 KOs, showing explosive power and pace. Both fighters have heavy finishes; Talha never goes to decision, while Susurkaev has mostly KO wins and one decision.
  • No previous fights between Talha and Susurkaev. Both bring early finish styles and aggressive approaches, making outcomes highly dependent on fight start conditions and preparation.
  • Talha is returning from ACL surgery within the last year and had a layoff before his last CS fight. Susurkaev is taking this bout on short notice, which may impact conditioning.
  • Susurkaev stepping in on short notice might put him at a conditioning disadvantage but could be highly motivated to keep his undefeated streak. Talha has home advantage being prepared for this event and fighting at closer to his natural weight.
  • Talha wants to redeem himself after a previous CS loss and prove durability post-injury. Susurkaev is motivated to maintain 8-0 undefeated record and capitalize on an opportunity in DWCS for UFC entry.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Baysangur Susurkaev: -275, Murtaza Talha: 215 Away (Baysangur Susurkaev) ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Susurkaev -1.5: -110, Talha +1.5: -110 Susurkaev -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -120, Under 1.5 rounds: 100 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Baysangur Susurkaev -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Baysangur Susurkaev at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Baysangur Susurkaev to win by KO/TKO

Predicted Score: Baysangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO in Round 1


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Yuri Panferov vs. Christopher Ewert Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Yuri Panferov vs Christopher Ewert – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-12
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Dana White's Contender Series Week 1 Venue

Game Overview

This middleweight bout features Yuri Panferov, an aggressive grappler known for his heavy ground-and-pound and submission skills, facing undefeated striker Christopher Ewert, who aims to keep the fight standing to secure a UFC contract.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Panferov is 8-1 with 8 finishes, mostly by ground-and-pound and submissions, recently showing strong form with back-to-back finishes in 2024. Ewert is undefeated at 7-0, with a solid striking base and motivation to prove himself on Contender Series.
  • No previous direct matchup between Panferov and Ewert, making this a stylistic clash with Panferov looking for takedowns and Ewert aiming to counter and keep striking range.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
  • The fight takes place on a large platform with significant opportunity for the winner to secure a UFC spot, adding career motivation for both.
  • Ewert is highly motivated to remain undefeated and capitalize on striking to impress the UFC brass. Panferov wants redemption after his previous Contender Series loss and to showcase his evolved grappling-heavy MMA style.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ewert -160 / Panferov +130 Christopher Ewert ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Not explicitly available; inferred standard -1.5 for favorite Christopher Ewert -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Christopher Ewert -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Christopher Ewert at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Christopher Ewert moneyline

Predicted Score: Christopher Ewert wins via TKO in round 2


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Stephen Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Stephen Erceg vs Ode Osbourne – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Stephen Erceg faces Ode Osbourne in a bantamweight UFC fight at UFC Vegas 109. Erceg is favored heavily on the moneyline, with a more precise striking rate and defense. The fight features contrasting styles with Erceg’s orthodox stance and Osbourne’s southpaw approach, both with solid striking records but Erceg showing superior statistical metrics.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Erceg has a 12-4 record, demonstrating consistent performance with 4.45 significant strikes landed per minute at 46% accuracy and 52% strike defense. Osbourne’s 13-8 record includes a respectable 3.20 strikes landed per minute at 40% accuracy but poorer defense at 46%.
  • No direct prior matchups between Erceg and Osbourne, making this a stylistic matchup based on their respective fight metrics and recent form.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout, suggesting both are in optimal physical condition.
  • Both fighters are competing in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas; no travel or venue disadvantage is evident. Erceg’s younger age (30 vs 33) and recent betting market support suggest higher confidence in his current form.
  • Erceg may have higher motivation to maintain/improve ranking given his favored status and younger career stage. Osbourne, as the underdog, may be motivated to upset but lacks supporting recent momentum indicators.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Erceg -600, Osbourne +425 Stephen Erceg ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread Not explicitly provided for spread, typical UFC spread -1.5 rounds for Erceg around -150 Stephen Erceg -1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 1.5 -160, Under 1.5 +130 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Stephen Erceg -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Stephen Erceg to win by decision

Predicted Score: Erceg wins by decision after 3 rounds


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Jean Matsumoto vs. Miles Johns Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jean Matsumoto vs Miles Johns – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The UFC Featherweight matchup features Jean Matsumoto, a 25-year-old Brazilian fighter with a 16-1 record, fighting orthodox stance and known for high volume striking but weaker defense. He faces Miles Johns, a 31-year-old American with a 15-3 record, also orthodox, who is more precise and defensively sound. Both fighters weigh 135 lbs and have similar height and reach, making it a competitive bout where striking accuracy and defense will be key.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Matsumoto boasts a higher output rate of significant strikes at 5.18/min compared to Johns' 3.16/min but with less accuracy (41% vs 44%). Johns excels at defense, allowing only 2.65 significant strikes/min with a 67% defense rate, whereas Matsumoto allows 5.40/min with 45% defense.
  • No previous fight history between them; this is their first encounter, making adaptability during the fight a factor.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the matchup.
  • Fight held at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, neutral location with no home advantage; both fighters seem motivated by career progression at this main card event.
  • Matsumoto aims to maintain his near-perfect record and prove striking dominance; Johns wants to leverage his experience and defensive skills to upset the younger fighter.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Jean Matsumoto: -298, Miles Johns: 240 Jean Matsumoto ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Jean Matsumoto -3.5: -115, Miles Johns +3.5: -115 Jean Matsumoto -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5: -298, Under 2.5: 220 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jean Matsumoto -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 92%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 92% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jean Matsumoto to win by decision, leveraging his striking volume advantage and physical prime despite defensive deficits.

Predicted Score: Jean Matsumoto wins by unanimous decision after three rounds


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Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Dolidze Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Anthony Hernandez vs Roman Dolidze – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze face off in a UFC middleweight main event, with Hernandez favored after a dominant winning streak, while Dolidze carries solid experience but recent wins of questionable quality.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Hernandez is on a 7-fight winning streak with superior recent performances, demonstrating strong endurance, speed, and pressure fighting both standing and on the ground. Dolidze has a 3-fight win streak, but some wins were against injured or less prepared opponents. Hernandez outstrikes Dolidze significantly and absorbs fewer strikes per minute.
  • No prior head-to-head fights between Hernandez and Dolidze; stylistically Hernandez’s pressure and high-volume striking could control the bout against Dolidze’s measured striking.
  • No recent reported injuries for either fighter; both appear physically prepared going into the bout.
  • Fight will be held at UFC Apex, Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no location advantage. Hernandez’s youth and momentum favor him versus the older Dolidze.
  • Hernandez is motivated to maintain an undefeated streak since early career setbacks, seeking to solidify his place as a top middleweight contender. Dolidze aims to prove his ranking merits but may lack the same recent confidence level.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Hernandez: -345, Dolidze: +275 Anthony Hernandez ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Hernandez -5.5 (-195), Dolidze +5.5 (140) Anthony Hernandez -5.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 3.5 rounds (-130), Under 3.5 rounds (+100) Under 3.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Anthony Hernandez -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 3.5 24%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Anthony Hernandez to win by decision

Predicted Score: Anthony Hernandez wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds


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Christian Rodriguez vs. Andre Fili Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Christian Rodriguez vs Andre Fili – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Christian Rodriguez vs Andre Fili is a featherweight UFC bout featuring a younger, highly accurate striker in Rodriguez against a taller, experienced fighter Fili with a contrasting style and more reach.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Rodriguez (12-3) has a higher significant strike accuracy (50%) and defense (54%) compared to Fili's 37% accuracy and 51% defense. Fili lands more strikes per minute (3.84 vs 3.63) but absorbs significantly more (4.15 vs 2.66), indicating Rodriguez is more efficient and durable.
  • No documented previous direct matchup exists between Rodriguez and Fili, making this a stylistic clash rather than familiarity-based contest.
  • No known injuries reported for either fighter going into the fight, suggesting both are physically prepared.
  • The fight is at UFC Apex amid a neutral environment favoring no athlete by location—Rodriguez being younger and possibly hungrier, Fili older but experienced.
  • Rodriguez, at 27, is on the rise with a strong recent form and motivation to climb ranks, while Fili, at 35, may face declining physical attributes despite experience.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Christian Rodriguez: -245, Andre Fili: +200 Christian Rodriguez ★★★★☆ 74%
Spread Christian Rodriguez -3.5: 105, Andre Fili +3.5: -140 Christian Rodriguez -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -230, Under 2.5 rounds: 175 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 63%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Christian Rodriguez -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 73%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 73% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Christian Rodriguez to win on the moneyline by decision

Predicted Score: Christian Rodriguez wins by decision, fight lasting 3 rounds


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